Each week, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Here are our five favorite Wednesday NBA props from the slate of eight games.
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 3 p.m. ET on March 2.
- Huge Selection of Sports
- 20+ States
- Top-Rated App
Orlando Magic: PF/C Wendell Carter Jr.
The Prop: 11.5 rebounds (vs. Indiana)
The Odds: Over -105/Under -125
Fantasy basketball GMs appreciate Carter’s consistency as a regular double-double threat, but that doesn’t make him an automatic choice for clearing Wednesday’s 11.5 total.
In his last 10 games, the Duke product has averaged precisely 11.0 rebounds. During this stretch, he surpassed this prop number just four times.
Carter also has been far less dominant on the glass at home recently. Over his last eight contests in Orlando, he’s collected 12 or more boards three times (12, 12, 10, 8, 10, 14, 11 and 9). In fact, while he’s had 17 games this season with at least 12 rebounds, only seven occurred at home.
However … one of those occurrences was Monday night against (you guessed it) Indiana, when he landed on exactly 12 rebounds in a 119-103 victory. And in his previous game against the Pacers on Feb. 2 in Indiana, Carter pulled down a season-high 18 boards.
That gives Carter 30 rebounds in two games against Indiana, which is impressive considering the Pacers yield the seventh-fewest rebounds to the opposition this season (43.2 per game). It’s also impressive because in his other 11 matchups this season against Central Division foes, Carter hasn’t once finished with more than 11 rebounds.
Philadelphia 76ers: PG/SG James Harden
The Prop: 42.5 points/rebounds/assists (vs. N.Y. Knicks)
The Odds: Over -120/Under -110
Harden’s first week with the championship-chasing Sixers quickly became the stuff of legend.
In two road matchups against the Timberwolves and Knicks, the recently acquired Harden cumulatively totaled 56 points, 18 rebounds, and 28 assists. For good measure, he had five steals versus New York on Sunday.
The average points/rebounds/assists production in the two outings: 51, well above tonight’s total.
Is Harden a lock to topple this prop tonight in his home debut with Philly, which is once again facing the free-falling Knicks (3-15 since Jan. 17)? All signs point to “absolutely”. After all, New York’s scuttling defense has yielded an average of 119.1 points over its last 10 games. Meanwhile, in two games with Harden in the lineup, Philadelphia has put up 133 and 125 points.
What’s more, since arriving in Philly — and returning from an eight-game injury absence — Harden is shooting 57.6 percent from the field and 57.1 percent from beyond the arc, and he’s 18-for-19 from the free-throw line. Finally, in his only game against the Knicks this season when he was still wearing a Nets uniform (Nov. 30), Harden produced this stat line: 34 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists.
Sacramento Kings: PG De’Aaron Fox
The Prop: 24.5 points (at New Orleans)
The Odds: Over -115/Under -110
The Over should be popular with bettors tonight for several reasons.
First, while Fox is scoring “just” 22.0 points per game this season, that average skyrockets to 27.0 ppg in his last nine contests dating to Jan. 19. Number of times Fox cleared this prop in those nine outings: eight.
Also, Fox’s offensive game has particularly flourished since the Feb. 10 NBA trade deadline, when the Kings’ front office dramatically overhauled the roster by shipping out Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Marvin Bagley III. In return, Sacramento received Domantas Sabonis, Trey Lyles, and Donte DiVincenzo. In six games since the trade, Fox has scored 26, 26, 33, 20, 26 and 29 points while shooting a blistering 50.8 percent from the field.
The former Kentucky star also has a juicy matchup Wednesday against the Pelicans, who sport the NBA’s eighth-worst field-goal defense (46.5 percent). Furthermore, in its last five games, New Orleans has surrendered an average of 28.4 ppg against the opposing team’s best playmaking guard (Russell Westbrook, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Tyus Jones, and Fred VanVleet).
Throw in the fact that Fox had Tuesday off and he routinely logs 38-42 minutes per night, and the Over on this Wednesday NBA prop looks too good to pass up.
Milwaukee Bucks: SG Khris Middleton
The Prop: 2.5 made 3-pointers (vs. Miami)
The Odds: Over +105/Under -135
Lots of juice on the Under with this prop. Is it justified? Yep.
Chronicling his last 13 games, Middleton buried more than two 3-pointers only four times — and in each instance, he finished with exactly three.
Two of those happened in Milwaukee’s last two outings against the 76ers and Hornets. However, in the first three games of the Bucks’ ongoing five-game homestand, Middleton drained a total of four 3-pointers. Even worse, Middleton is shooting just 25.6 percent from beyond the arc during the homestand.
On the bright side, the Texas A&M product did connect on 7 of 16 triples in his last two games against Miami in early December (topping this prop number both times). But in his previous three games against the Heat (including one early this season), Middleton shot 3-for-11 from long range.
Add in the fact that the Heat have the NBA’s 11th-best 3-point defense (34.3%), and the Under looks like the way to go. Then again, Miami has allowed the fourth-most made 3-pointers this season (13.2 per game).
Denver Nuggets: C Nikola Jokic
The Prop: 8.5 assists (vs. Oklahoma City)
The Odds: Over -140/Under +105
Jokic has collected double-digit rebounds in 19 of his last 20 games. However, tonight’s assists prop seems like the healthier lock, in terms of the Over.
Here’s why: Jokic has averaged 10.1 assists in his last 10 home outings. During this stretch, the Nuggets star tallied nine-plus dimes seven times (11, 9, 10, 12, 10, 14 and 13).
In his last five games regardless of venue, Jokic has accounted for 33.1 percent of Denver’s assists output. That’s higher than his yearly rate (29.4%).
The opponent also sets up nicely for the defending NBA MVP, as the Thunder are allowing the seventh-most assists (25.4 per game).
Also, the Nuggets — who launch a four-game homestand tonight — haven’t played since Sunday, so Jokic will have fresh legs.
The one downside to taking the Over on this Wednesday NBA prop? Jokic has averaged only 6.1 assists in his last five encounters with Oklahoma City, finishing with nine or more dimes just twice. Two of those meetings were earlier this season, and the four-time All-Star had just nine total assists (6, 3).
