It’s almost March, which means it is time to focus in on college basketball championship odds. Which teams have a legitimate chance to make the Final Four and win it all? Which schools are bracket-busting landmines masquerading as quality teams? Will somebody replicate UCLA’s improbable run from last March, making the Final Four as a double-digit seed?
Unfortunately, Props.com does not have a crystal ball to answer those questions. But we do have an interesting screening tool. Here’s the gist of it:
- Since the KenPom era began (1997 to present), every NCAA Basketball Champion finished the regular season with a top-40 ranking in offensive efficiency and a top-25 ranking in defensive efficiency.
Is this a perfect system that will give you the cheat codes for this year’s NCAA Tournament? Probably not, but there’s at least some merit behind it, which is: To make a deep March run, you need a stingy defense coupled with a productive offense. Seems pretty intuitive, right?
So let’s use this tool as a starting point to identify potentially underrated teams within the college basketball championship odds landscape. From there, we’ll break down each team and sort out the diamonds in the rough from fool’s gold.
NCAA Championship Odds & Efficiency Rankings
| Team | Off-Efficiency | Def-Efficiency | Final Four Odds | NCAA Champ Odds |
| Gonzaga | 2nd | 6th | -120 | +350 |
| Arizona | 8th | 15th | +150 | +650 |
| Kentucky | 3rd | 24th | +150 | +700 |
| Auburn | 23rd | 8th | +275 | +1,200 |
| Duke | 5th | 27th | +275 | +1,200 |
| Baylor | 9th | 14th | +300 | +1,200 |
| UCLA | 15th | 11th | +600 | +3,000 |
| Illinois | 18th | 32nd | +900 | +4,500 |
| Houston | 10th | 12th | +800 | +4,000 |
| Texas Tech | 52nd | 2nd | +600 | +2,500 |
| Tennessee | 46th | 3rd | +700 | +3,500 |
| Texas | 32nd | 13th | +1,500 | +6,000 |
| UConn | 24th | 35th | +1,200 | +7,000 |
College basketball betting odds via DraftKings as of 9:30 p.m. ET on March 5. Offensive and defensive efficiency metrics via KenPom includes games completed by 9:30 p.m. ET on March 5.
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Four Sleepers To Watch
First off, this handy tool isn’t meant to disqualify capable teams with a legitimate chance to win the NCAA Tournament (more on that later). Instead, we’ll examine the above table in hopes of uncovering strong betting value within the college basketball championship odds market.
A few weeks remain in the regular season, so the odds, rankings, and overall plausibility of the following teams are likely to shift. However, we recommended you keep these squads on your betting radar as we approach the madness that is March.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Final Four odds: +600
National Championship odds: +2,500
It’s beginning to look a lot like 2019 … at least that’s what the folks in Lubbock are starting to sing. Of course, Texas Tech nearly won the NCAA Title in 2019, making it all the way to the championship game before losing 85-77 to Virginia in overtime.
The 2021 Red Raiders resemble their heralded predecessors with defensive-minded, gritty play. To that point: Texas Tech currently ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. In 2019, Tech ranked first in that category. That’s more than just a coincidence; it’s a recipe for advancing in the tournament. And on Feb. 22, the Red Raiders were right at 40th in offensive efficiency; however, two losses since then have Texas Tech outside of that key top-40 number, at 52nd.
The Red Raiders have beaten Baylor twice while splitting their regular-season series against Kansas. In fact, Texas Tech’s three-point overtime loss at Kansas is the only thing standing in the way of a clean sweep of the presumed two best teams in the Big 12. Throw in a two-game sweep of in-state rival Texas, and the Red Raiders are a cool 5-1 against a trio of Top 20 teams from their conference.
Without a doubt, this is a team to watch down the stretch. Sure, there have been bouts of inconsistency this season, with those aforementioned two losses coming at TCU and at Oklahoma State. But Texas Tech has proven it belongs in the Final Four and national championship conversation — and maybe more so as a legit contender than a sleeper.
Houston Cougars
Final Four odds: +800
National Championship 0dds: +4,000
The Cougars make the cut here thanks to their strong KenPom rankings in both offensive (10th) and defensive (12th) efficiency. However, we need to address the elephant in the room: Houston plays in the American Athletic Conference, which explains its poor strength of schedule rating (99th).
Of course, Gonzaga — which reached last year’s title game undefeated before falling to Baylor — gets a pass despite ranking 110th in strength of schedule. But are we convinced Houston, which also made last year’s Final Four, is really on a similar level as the Zags?
Skeptics will point out that a favorable path helped the Cougars advance in last year’s Big Dance. Houston beat Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Oregon State before getting upended in the Final Four by Baylor. For those keeping track, each of Houston’s tournament wins came against double-digit seeds. That, plus the strength of schedule component, is a big reason why many are dismissing the Cougars in 2022.
Houston is a solid team with experience on its side. On the other hand, it’s difficult to envision the Cougars pulling out multiple tournament wins while playing up in class against college basketball’s big boys. Let’s not forget that starting guards Marcus Sasser and Tramion Mack both suffered season-ending injuries in December. The Cougars have been winning despite those setbacks, but will that continue when the pressure (and competition) turns up in March?
Texas Longhorns
Final Four odds: +1,500
National Championship odds: +6,000
All the college basketball pundits keep waiting for Texas to put it all together. The Longhorns have plenty of talent and a new head coach with a strong pedigree (ex-Texas Tech leader Chris Beard). Yet this season has been nothing short of a disappointment in Austin.
BetMGM had Texas at +1,600 to win the NCAA Championship at the beginning of the year. Those odds have ballooned to +5,000, especially after the Longhorns lost three of four conference games in mid-January. Despite the relative letdown, Texas is still lined up for a solid NCAA Tournament seed. Depending on how things progress in the next few weeks, the Longhorns could be anywhere from a four to seven seed.
It’s probably better to take a wait-and-see approach with this squad, but it’s definitely one to keep in the back of your mind as we move closer to Selection Sunday. Texas lost its final two regular-season games, at home against Baylor and on the road vs. Kansas. So it’d be helpful if the Longhorns got some semblance of momentum in the Big 12 tournament.
Remember, the Longhorns haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2014. However, their talent and defensive efficiency rating (13th) scream “dangerous sleeper.” Also, don’t discount this: The Longhorns’ NCAA Tournament drought persists because they suffered an embarrassing opening-round loss to 14-seed Abilene Christian last year. So you better believe this team will be on a mission to avenge that come March.
Connecticut Huskies
Final Four odds: +1,200
National Championship odds: +7,000
UConn was a March mainstay for about 15 years. The Huskies won NCAA Titles in 1999, 2004, 2011, and 2014. Who can forget the likes of Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Kemba Walker, and Shabazz Napier cutting down the nets? A lot of people, that’s who.
UConn went into “dark mode” shortly after its most recent championship. Last year, the Huskies made the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016; however, they were promptly bounced in the first round by Maryland. There’s little doubt that UConn will enter the 2022 tournament in a better position to make a deep run — even if the team’s fans might not be totally convinced.
On Feb. 22, the Huskies took down Big East rival and eighth-ranked Villanova, 71-69. Afterward, the UConn fans (student section?) proceeded to storm the court. Not to shame anyone for their college basketball enthusiasm, but that celebration seemed a bit excessive. After all, UConn was a 2-point favorite over the Wildcats.
The fact is, the Huskies belong at the top of the Big East standings alongside Providence and ‘Nova (more on the latter shortly). And it’s time the college basketball world takes notice. (Somebody send the memo to UConn fans, too.)
While Connecticut misses the KenPom top-25 cut in defensive efficiency (35th as of March 5), the offensive rating (24th) is strong. The Huskies also hold a top-10 spot in rebound rate. In late February, UConn could be had at +1,800 to make the Final Four and +10,000 to win the tournament, which seemed quite generous. Hopefully, if you liked those odds, you jumped in; as of March 5, the Final Four price is +1,200 and the championship odds +7,000.
Hey, What About …
If you looked at the above table long enough, you probably noticed a few glaring omissions — three, in particular: Kansas, Villanova, and Purdue.
As the regular season closes, Kansas and Villanova aren’t too far from being listed in that table. The Wildcats and Jayhawks currently rank sixth and seventh, respectively, in offensive efficiency, and 33rd and 31st, respectively, in defensive efficiency. So both are just outside the top-25 metric in the latter category.
But keep in mind the goal of the screening tool: It’s not to eliminate strong teams from consideration. Instead, we’re looking to uncover sleepers that may otherwise fall by the wayside. Kansas and Villanova have been among the Final Four and NCAA Championship favorites all season. As such, neither team can be considered a sleeper in the same way that UConn — which ranks directly behind Villanova and Kansas in defensive efficiency — can.
Purdue, on the other hand, is an interesting study. At BetMGM, the Boilermakers are fifth in both ticket count and money in the NCAA Championship odds market. The Boilermakers opened at +1,600 to win it all, shortened to +1,000 and are currently +1,200. Given its record (25-6) and national ranking (No. 8), Purdue could earn a No. 2 seed in the tournament.
So what gives with the Boilermakers? Well, they currently sit atop the KenPom rankings in offensive efficiency, but the flip side of that coin reveals a major blemish: The Boilermakers are an eye-popping 101st in defensive efficiency.
Come March, it’s difficult to trust a squad that isn’t consistent on the defensive side of the ball. Can Purdue become the first team in a quarter century to buck the KenPom trend? We’ll soon find out.