Each week, BetPrep Sharp and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses expected win totals, division odds, championship favorites, and potential award winners with host and BetPrep Editor Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. It’s the official futures podcast of BetPrep, a free sports betting research site that empowers bettors with the same tools both the sharps and the sportsbooks use.
Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Futures Podcast.
These NFL, NHL, and NBA futures were originally discussed on February 14, 2022. Odds may have changed since the podcast episode aired.
NHL Futures: Pittsburgh Penguins
The futures bet: Penguins to win Metropolitan Division
The odds: +325
Where to bet: BetMGM
Brad’s take: Previously, we touched on Carolina as the most likely winner of this division. But anyone who knows me knows I will put in bets I think are going to lose. I think this bet is going to lose. But this payout is just too high. The Penguins are only one point ahead of Carolina, and Carolina has three games in hand. So let’s call Pittsburgh three to four points behind Carolina. The Rangers are four points behind but they have two games in hand. It just comes down to this, I probably think the true fair odds here should be closer to +275. I give the Penguins around a 25% chance to win this division.
NHL Futures: Colorado Avalanche
The futures bet: Avalanche to win Presidents Cup (most regular-season points)
The odds: +115
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
Brad’s take: Colorado currently has 72 points as we record (Feb. 14). The Panthers have 69. But the Avalanche have a game in hand. So that translates to closer to five points ahead. Carolina has five fewer points, but they played the same amount of games. So realistically, probably four teams can win. I think Colorado is the best team. The Avalanche really have around a four-point lead on all these teams. Colorado is 9-0-1 in its last 10 as we record. They also play in an easier conference. The best teams are all in the East, except for Colorado. I will take the plus price because I think there’s a 50% chance the Avalanche finish with the most points.
NBA Futures: Phoenix Suns
The futures bet: Suns to win NBA Title
The odds: +450
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
Brad’s take: I just think they are the best team, and the West is garbage. You just need a good, well-rounded team – and this team is really tough. I really like their makeup. We know the Suns’ stars, but I like some of their other players. Cam Johnson can play in the league for a long time. He’s averaging 12 points a game shooting 46% and is a nice volume three-point shooter. He’s shooting 43% from three. Jay Crowder is a glue guy. So the Suns have excellent players beyond their stars. And you don’t need an All-Star team to win the West.
NBA Futures: Cleveland Cavaliers
The futures bet: Cavaliers to win Central Division
The odds: +320
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
Brad’s take: We gave it out, I think 20-something-to-one, maybe around 22/1. Then we gave it out at 13/1, and now it’s sitting at 3/1. I still like it. The Bucks have the hardest remaining schedule. The Bulls are third-hardest. The Bulls are dealing with injuries. The Cavaliers have the 23rd-hardest schedule. There gets to be a point where preseason forecasts go out the window. We’ve played almost 60 games. You can more or less say with the standard deviations that there’s no luck at this point. This is who the Cavs are, what their record says. Some sites have the Cavs as prohibitive favorites to win the division. I’m at 40%. The Bucks are the team that scares me but the Bucks have a tough schedule. I’m going to grab the 3/1 and take my chances.
NBA Futures: C Evan Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers
The futures bet: Mobley to win Rookie of the Year
The odds: -310
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
Brad’s take: He’s going to win the award. You’re paying to have your money held until the winner is announced; but where are you getting that return. He’s played 49 games. If he reaches 60, he can’t lose. Mobley has changed the entire Cavaliers franchise. He’s had almost a Tim Duncan-like effect on the team. And this price? Are you freaking kidding me? He has the stats, but he’s so much more than stats. Just from a defense perspective, he’s changed the entire culture. I think he wins unanimously.
NFL Futures: Dallas Cowboys
The futures bet: Cowboys to win Super Bowl
The odds: +1,600
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
Brad’s take: The fair value is 15/1. A big sportsbook offers a yes/no and the yes was plus-1200 to no was minus-1800. Which is basically saying the fair price is 15/1. I only am looking at the NFC. The AFC is too tough. Tampa Bay is obviously completely done. San Francisco with a new QB is a big question mark. The champion Rams were a this-year team; the window is closing on them. And the real elephant in the room is Green Bay; what are we going to get out of them now? They either trade Rodgers, meaning they are done. Or they keep him and they have the Davante Adams problem and their cap problem. Dak (Prescott) needs to play better, we know. But Dallas seems to have the clearest path right now.
Want More NFL, NHL & NBA Futures?
For more picks in hockey, basketball, and 2022 season Super Bowl odds, plus a recap of the Super Bowl and a post-Harden analysis of the Sixers, listen to the full Givin Futures podcast here.
