The Mavericks are set to face the Miami Heat on Thursday, Mar 7. The game is scheduled for 7:30 ET while airing on TNT. Dallas enters this game as 4.5-point favorites with the total set at 229.5. How will this one play out? Let’s dive into the Mavericks vs Heat predictions below.
Mavericks vs. Heat Odds
- Spread: Mavericks -4.5
- Total 229.5
Odds via FanDuel SportsBook. New To FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Mar 7
- Time: 7:30 ET
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas TX
- TV: TNT
Heat Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- Miami has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 108 points per game while allowing 103. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
- Miami has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Mavericks Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Mavericks offense has averaged 118 points per game while allowing an average of 122. Dallas posted an overall record of 5-5 while going 6-4 ATS.
- As the betting favorite, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
Can Miami Win on the Road?
Miami is currently 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 35-26. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place.
The Heat are 4.5-point underdogs today and have gone 10-16 straight-up as underdogs this season. Their O/U record as the underdog is 14-12, and their scoring differential as the underdog is -1.6 points per game.
On the road, Miami is 17-11 ATS and has an average scoring differential of +1.1 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 18-13.
In their last game, the Heat beat the Pistons by a score of 118-110. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and Miami was favored by 11 points going into the game.
Miami’s O/U record for the season is 24-37, and their games have averaged 220.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 229.5.
This season, the Heat have been a below-average offensive team, ranking just 27th in points per game at 110.8. On the road, they have been even worse, scoring just 107.9 points per game.
When it comes to three-point shooting, Miami has been one of the league’s best teams, ranking 7th in three-point percentage at 37%. However, they are just 23rd in field goal percentage overall.
So far, the Heat have scored below the NBA average in 63.9% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 29th in the league at 96.2 possessions per game.
Miami’s defense has been playing well, ranking 6th in the NBA with 109.9 points allowed per game. Miami’s defense is currently forcing 12.2 turnovers per game, which is 9th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 30th in blocked shots, with an average of 3.4 rejections per game.
Can the Mavericks Grab a Win at Home?
Despite being favored in their last two games, the Mavericks have lost both straight up and against the spread. They are favored by 4.5 points today and have gone 21-15 ATS as the favorite this season.
Dallas is 34-28 on the season and is currently 8th in the Western Conference. In the Southwest Division, they are in 2nd place.
In non-conference games, the Mavericks are 13-10 compared to 21-18 against the Western Conference. On average, their games have scored 237 points this season.
In their most recent game, the Mavericks lost to the Pacers by a score of 137-120. The O/U line for that game was 247.5 points, and Dallas was favored by 5.5 points.
For the season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 32-30, and 49 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 229.5. In their last three games, the Mavericks have gone 3-0 on the over/under.
At home, the Mavericks are averaging 120.3 points per game, which is 8th in the NBA. Overall, they are 6th in scoring at 118.7 points per game. They have outscored the NBA scoring average in 59.7% of their games this season.
Dallas is 12th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. In terms of shooting, they are 12th in field goal percentage at 48%. From two-point range, they are 7th in the league at 56%.
When it comes to three-point shooting, the Mavericks are 3rd in made threes at 14.9 per game. They are 11th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. In terms of free throws, Dallas is 15th in made free throws at 17.5 per game.
Coming into the game, the Mavericks will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 118.3 points per game (24th). On two point field goal attempts, the Mavericks’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.9% and allowing 37.0% from beyond the arc.
Mavericks vs. Heat Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Luka Doncic and his points prop of 32.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -125 while the under is at -102. Our projections have Luka Doncic going 11/23 from the field on his way to 34 points. Our recommended bet is take the over on his prop bet with a payout of -125.
- The Prop: Luka Doncic Over 32.5 Points (-125)
Mavericks vs. Heat Predictions
For a point-spread wager in this Mavericks vs. Heat game, we suggest taking the Heat at +4.5. Even though our predictions have the Mavericks winning 118-116, we see the Heat as the better choice on the point-spread.
Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 229.5, and our model predicts the Heat and Mavericks to score a combined 234 points. We recommend betting on the over.
The Pick: Heat +4.5 | at Fanduel Sportsbook