The 2022 season is around the corner, and you better believe we are ready to bet some NFL player props. However, we’ll take a moment to reflect on the most profitable props from last season in an attempt to uncover key trends and viability moving forward.
In the following sections, we rank the most profitable NFL player props for the 2021 regular season. These rankings are separated into two categories: overs and unders. By doing this, we can analyze the trends a little easier.
Take note that touchdown props were not included in the data to compile this list. That could be a separate article. Also, fringe props that aren’t available on most major sportsbooks (i.e. – wide receiver rushing yards) were excluded from the data set.
All data was compiled via BetPrep.com.
Most Profitable NFL Player Props: Overs
These were the most profitable NFL player props to the Over for the 2021 season:
1. Rams WR Cooper Kupp: Over Receiving Yards (+8.11 units)
Does this really surprise you? Kupp ended near 2,000 total receiving yards while breaking the 100-yard plateau in 11-of-17 games. His prop was routinely set around 110 receiving yards in the playoffs, and that will likely be the case as we open the 2022 season.
2022 outlook: Even though Matthew Stafford is still at quarterback and Sean McVay is still calling plays, Kupp is due for some regression. His 2021 campaign was other-worldly. I don’t see how he could possibly top that. Yes, Kupp will still have his blow-up spots, but his player prop lines could be inflated to begin the season.
2. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Over Receptions (+7.66 units)
St. Brown took off in the month of December, catching at least eight passes in his final six games. He caught a touchdown in five of those contests and racked up 90-plus yards four times. Plenty of that came in garbage time, but fantasy enthusiasts and prop bettors don’t care. Stats are stats, and St. Brown tapped the vein down the stretch.
2022 outlook: We shouldn’t expect St. Brown to bring that level of production to the early weeks of 2022. De’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson were often injured down the stretch in 2021. They’ll be back in the mix, and the Lions added competition to their receiving corps with D.J. Chark and rookie Jameson Williams vying for looks. Don’t expect St. Brown to waltz his way to another 33% target share.
#Lions rookie WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had the most receptions (90) for any first-year player in #NFL history who was not drafted in the first 3 rounds of the draft. #Onepride @amonra_stbrown
pic.twitter.com/iyxR9hkT4i— Logan Lamorandier (@LLamorandier) January 23, 2022
3. Cowboys RB Tony Pollard: Over Total Yards (+7.41 units)
This is a sneaky one. Pollard racked up 719 rushing yards (5.5 ypc) alongside 337 receiving yards in 16 games. He’s extremely efficient, which is good because his volume is still curbed due to sitting behind “RB1” Ezekiel Elliott on the depth chart.
2022 outlook: Early news suggests that Pollard will see more time as a receiver in 2022. Is that real? We can’t say for sure, but it doesn’t hurt an already proficient prop producer in terms of total yards, receptions, and receiving yards. Pollard was already seeing respectable third-down work, and it appears the Cowboys want to explore that even more.
4. Bengals RB Samaje Perine: Over Receptions (+6.90 units)
This one is flat-out weird. Samaje Perine, all 235 pounds of him, functioned as the third-down back for Cincinnati last season. Even though he doesn’t fit the prototype of a receiving back, he caught 27 passes across 15 games. Perine recorded multiple catches in eight of his last 11 contests, and that’s what ultimately led to this 6.90 unit profit.
2022 outlook: I’m not sure if anyone is running to their local bookmaker to bet on Perine’s reception prop, but let’s think about this. Two of the top four ‘over props’ in 2021 were third-down backs with relatively low expectations. Perhaps there’s a betting angle there? I’m not sure Perine will be the answer in 2022, as RB Chris Evans could challenge for snaps in 2022. Still, there’s food for thought in the last two examples.
5. Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette: Over Receptions (+6.61 units)
Fournette benefitted from the same low receiving expectations outlined in Perine’s section above. Even though Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard were in the backfield mix for Tampa last season, Fournette regularly gobbled up more than 60% of the snaps on a per-week basis. That led to three or more receptions in 12 of 13 regular season games. Fournette actually hauled in six or more receptions in five of his last six regular-season outings.
2022 outlook: We know QB Tom Brady loves to check down to his running backs, so maybe there’s something to this trend. The prop market for running back receptions is often overlooked, but clearly Fournette has the ability to record a handful of catches on any given week (no matter the game script).
Holy catch Leonard Fournette 🤯
— Billy Heyen (@BillyHeyen) September 10, 2021
6. Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne: Over Total Yards (+6.53 units)
Bourne was super-efficient in 2021, helping prop bettors earn regular profits on a weekly basis. Bourne also recorded a rushing attempt in 8-of-17 games last season, which gave his total yards prop a nice boost to the Over.
2022 outlook: The total yards market seems inefficient for a receiver like Bourne, who hit positive rushing yards in nearly half of his games last season. His snap rate regularly hovered around 50%, so Bourne is an interesting case study depending on how he fits into the Patriots’ wide receiver plans now that DeVante Parker is in the mix.
7. Bills QB Josh Allen: Over Rushing Yards (+6.40 units)
This one makes sense. The rushing yard props for quarterbacks are conservative, but Allen isn’t your run-of-the-mill quarterback. Allen topped 60 rushing yards in four of his last five regular-season games, and he held a cool 45 rushing yard average on the year.
2022 outlook: I’m skeptical about betting this early in the year. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott mentioned that he wants his prized QB to run less in 2022. Is that “coach speak” or an actual blueprint? Perhaps that plan will go out the window in super competitive games while the Bills scale back Allen’s carries in games they control.
8. Ravens TE Mark Andrews: Over Receiving Yards (+6.36 units)
Andrews was an absolute beast last year, coming up with 107 receptions for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns. What was the cause for that uptick? First off: Andrews did an excellent job of establishing himself as QB Lamar Jackson’s top pass-catcher. Second: the Ravens had to pass the ball more than usual, especially while playing from behind for the better part of their six-game losing streak to finish the year.
2022 outlook: Marquise Brown is no longer with the Ravens. Rashod Bateman should step up this season, but Andrews is still the clear-cut top target. This is going to sound obvious, but Andrews’ game-by-game receiving numbers are directly tied to the Ravens’ passing attempts. Andrews should have a few volume-driven blow-up spots when Baltimore checks in as underdogs while playing from behind.
The Lamar Jackson-Mark Andrews connection was STRONG on these two plays 💯
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/bylTSPis43
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 29, 2021
9. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs: Over Receiving Yards (+6.33 units)
Jacobs was forced into more of a pass-catching role in 2021 due to the injuries of fellow running backs. However, Jacobs caught at least two passes in 12-of-15 games, looking solid in that role, so he is a capable receiver out of the backfield if he gets the opportunity.
2022 outlook: This one is probably a wait-and-see more than anything. Let’s not forget that the Raiders have a new coach in Josh McDaniels, so he could use the running backs a little differently than last year.
10. Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow: Over Receptions (+6.28 units)
Hunter Renfrow was a reception monster down the stretch last season. The Raiders needed him to step up for a short-handed (and underwhelming) receiving corps, and he did exactly that. Renfrow went for 100 receiving yards in three straight games down the stretch while hitting a 25% target share to boot.
2022 outlook: Davante Adams is now in the mix for the Raiders. It’s highly doubtful Renfrow will keep that inflated target share, so the “Over gravy train” known as Renfrow’s reception prop seems dead on the tracks.
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Most Profitable NFL Player Props: Unders
The story is very simple when we look through the most profitable “Under props” from 2021: These guys didn’t meet expectations for the better part of the season.
Ronald Jones, Russell Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Robby Anderson are prime examples of that. All of them had relatively high expectations heading into the 2021 season, but things fell apart in one way or another. Injuries, usage, and other limiting factors took hold.
| Player | Stat | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson (RB - NYJ) | Under Rush Att | +9.15 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (QB - SF) | Under Rush Yds | +8.77 |
| Ronald Jones II (RB - TB) | Under Rush Yds | +8.36 |
| Russell Wilson (QB - SEA) | Under Pa Comp | +7.44 |
| Robby Anderson (WR - CAR) | Under Rec Yds | +7.20 |
| OJ Howard (TE - TB) | Under Rec Yds | +7.13 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (WR - ARI) | Under Rec Yds | +6.77 |
| Zach Wilson (QB - NYJ) | Under Pa Comp | +6.75 |
| Carson Wentz (QB - IND) | Under INTs | +6.56 |
| Myles Gaskin (RB - MIA) | Under Rush Yds | +6.53 |
Carson Wentz is an interesting case study. He was known for ill-timed interceptions that turned into Twitter memes as well as fodder for talk shows. However, he only threw seven picks on the season, going without an interception in 12-of-17 games. If you bet on Wentz to not throw an interception every game, you would’ve been up 6.56 units at the end of the year. This is a classic case of perception vs. reality.
Robby Anderson could never get going due to frustrating quarterback play. Simply put, the Panthers couldn’t find a QB to get him the ball downfield. His fortune could turn if Baker Mayfield is able to regularly find him over the top, although Mayfield often struggled with that in Cleveland.
Key Takeaways For 2022
Here are my takeaways based on these lists and other observations made from 2021’s NFL player props:
Look Towards Receiving Backs
Take the time to understand third down and pass-catching running backs. Understand that they have more potential for targets when their team is losing (and therefore passing more) in the second half. As mentioned earlier, the prop market for running back receptions is often overlooked by bookmakers (and slow to adjust).
Hot Streaks Are Real
Every player on the “Over” list was profitable thanks to consistently beating their prop number for a decent stretch throughout the season. It’s all about separating the signal from the noise. The best way to do that is to check snap rates and usage charts to see if a player has carved out an established role. Ideally, that role would be enough to beat their prop number even in an average game by their standards.
Go One Step Deeper
Josh Allen beat his rushing yard prop more times than not. Is there any pattern to his ‘over’ games? Were they competitive games, whereas he wasn’t as aggressive in blowouts?
Find Extreme Splits, Then Attack
For example, Jonathan Taylor averaged 106.5 rushing yards per game in 2021. He averaged a whopping 138.8 rushing yards in wins and only 70.3 ypg in losses. That’s quite the difference. Sportsbooks will often set a player’s prop near their season average, making marginal adjustments for the matchup and situation. However, if the Colts checked into the week as significant underdogs, that could be a good time to bet Taylor Under 100.5 rushing yards thanks to what you know about his win/loss splits.
