Week 8 officially begins with a clash of NFC superpowers between the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
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- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
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Aaron Jones OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards
The Packers are likely to be without stud receiver Davante Adams. However, NFL Network’s Steve Wyche outlines the long-shot chance for Adams to join the team and play tonight.
The latest update on Packers WR Davante Adams status for Thursday's game again Arizona. From NFL Now @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/QZ3ms5FeaB
— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) October 27, 2021
The team is also almost certainly going to be without Allen Lazard. So, Green Bay might be inclined to lean more on running back Aaron Jones and the running game.
Jones is the unquestioned top ball-carrier with 89 and AJ Dillon sitting second on the team with only 52. Jones has parlayed his carries into 57.7 rushing yards per game, ripping off a 57-yard long.
Unfortunately, his per-game average is below his Underdog Fantasy pick of 62.5 rushing yards. However, he’s gone over his yardage prop in four of seven games. Additionally, I bring up his longest rush of 57 yards because the Cardinals struggle mightily to contain explosive runs.
According to Sharp Football Stats, Arizona’s allowed the highest average explosive run rate (17%). Thus, Jones could conceivably surpass his rushing yards total on just one run or a few. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cardinals are permitting an eye-catching 4.79 yards per rush attempt to running backs this year.
Thus, I’m selecting Jones’ over for 62.5 rushing yards, and Bet Prep supports that selection. They project Jones to rumble for 62.66 rushing yards.
Chase Edmonds PLUS 6.5 Rush + Rec. Yards Vs. DeAndre Hopkins
Chase Edmonds is a do-it-all back who balled out at full health last week after playing a bit banged up in previous weeks. Comparatively, DeAndre Hopkins is listed as questionable and hasn’t practiced this week while nursing a new injury. If Nuk plays, he might be used as a decoy or ineffective due to his hamstring injury.
In Week 7, Edmonds played a season-high 69% of Arizona’s offensive snaps, amassing 90 yards from scrimmage. Edmonds has reached at least 75 yards from scrimmage in five of seven games and averages 81.3 yards from scrimmage per game. Meanwhile, Nuk has gained 75 yards from scrimmage only two times, averaging 60.0 yards from scrimmage per game.
Therefore, Edmonds is a decent bet to produce more yardage than Nuk outright. So, getting 6.5 yards is gravy. Further, Green Bay’s defense limits explosive pass plays, which might benefit Edmonds’ passing-game usage. The Packers have the second-lowest average explosive pass play rate (6%) allowed this year. Thus, Edmonds’ average depth of target of -0.4 yards, per Sports Info Solutions, is likely a better stylistic fit than Nuk’s mark of 12.5 yards downfield.
Finally, the Cardinals are 6.5-point favorites, setting the stage for Edmonds to rush the ball against Green Bay’s defense that ranks 23rd in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. Add all the context up, and I’ll gleefully take the 6.5 yards for Edmonds.
Also, Bet Prep once again supports my selection. They project Nuk for 67.33 yards from scrimmage and Edmonds for 74.64 yards.
Kyler Murray PLUS 21.5 Rushing Yards Vs. James Conner
Let’s close the picks out with another rivals pick. Edmonds’ uptick in playing time last week at full health came at the expense of James Conner. As a result, Conner played only 30% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. Sure, he still rumbled for 64 yards on 10 carries. However, last week’s performance was an efficiency outlier for Conner. Even with the previous week’s stellar showing on the ground, he’s still averaging only 3.8 yards per rush attempt. The unexciting veteran has rushed for under 55 yards in five of seven games.
Now, Kyler Murray hasn’t done much with his legs lately. In fact, he’s rushed for only 17 yards over his last three games combined. Yikes. However, he has a game with 31 rushing yards and another with 39 on his ledger this year. Perhaps most importantly, he has a dreamy matchup for him to showcase his wheels.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers have allowed the second-most rushing yards (238) to quarterbacks this year. In addition, a glance at their game log reveals they haven’t faced the NFL’s top rushing quarterbacks, either. So, their high yardage total yielded on the ground to quarterbacks isn’t skewed by unfortunate matchups.
Unsurprisingly, Bet Prep projects Murray to right the ship for rushing in this matchup, projecting him to run for 29.76 yards. And, they project Conner for only 48.94 rushing yards. So, take the 21.5 yards and select Murray.
