The New Orleans Saints square off with the Seattle Seahawks for Monday Night Football, putting a bow on Week 7’s action. This awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 7.
Alex Collins UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards
Last week, Alex Collins put in yeoman’s work, rushing for 101 yards on 20 attempts against the Steelers. Unfortunately, he came out of that game banged up. He’s expected to play this week, but Collins missed two practices before participating in a limited capacity on Saturday. So, he’s likely under 100%.
Making matters more complicated for Collins’ backfield standing is the projected return of Rashaad Penny. Of course, I always take what head coach Pete Carroll says with a grain of salt. Still, Carroll specifically said regarding Penny’s return, “I’m hoping he’ll have a chance to be a big factor in the game.” I don’t expect Penny to overtake Collins on the depth chart, but he could turn this into an even or nearly even split for carries.
Further, the Seahawks were a pass-happy offense in a neutral game script last week. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the scoring margin ranged from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points in Week 6, Seattle passed at a 68% clip. Additionally, it wasn’t a small sample, as they ran 44 plays under those scoring parameters.
Finally, this is a nightmarish matchup for Seattle’s running game. According to Football Outsiders, the Saints rank second in run defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Wisely, teams aren’t wasting their time running against a stout defense allowing only 3.3 yards per rush attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference. The Saints have faced the second-fewest runs (118) runs this year. Yes, they had a bye week in Week 6. Still, their per-game rush attempt total faced is the sixth-lowest mark in 2021. Additionally, the Seahawks are underdogs. So, I don’t foresee Collins receiving a large enough workload on the ground to surpass 46.5 rushing yards.
Geno Smith OVER 209.5 Passing Yards
Geno Smith made his first start of the year last week, passing for 209 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers. As I noted above, the Seahawks passed at a 68% rate in a neutral game script. So yes, it’s a bit disappointing Smith’s 209 passing yards last week fall short of his passing yards prop this week. Still, a potentially less effective Collins could put more responsibility on Smith’s plate this week.
In addition, another week of practicing with the starters might conceivably help with rapport with his top pass-catchers, resulting in a step forward this week. Also, while the Saints rank an imposing ninth in pass defense DVOA, the Steelers aren’t pushovers, ranking 13th. Further, Smith is at home this week after playing on the road last week. Finally, New Orleans has 242 passing yards or more in four straight games. And, during their previous four games, they’ve faced an underwhelming collection of quarterbacks, namely Sam Darnold, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke. It’s debatable where Smith ranks relative to the ho-hum quartet that’s passed for 242 or more yards the last four games against the Saints. However, he’s not likely much worse — if worse at all — based on how he’s performed in relief of Russell Wilson this season. So, I like Smith’s odds of clearing the low bar of 209.5 passing yards.
Marquez Callaway OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
Marquez Callaway captured the attention of the football and fantasy football community with an excellent preseason. But then, he recorded only three receptions for 22 yards the first two weeks of the season. That’s hardly the follow-up to his preseason fantasy gamers were hoping for when drafting him.
However, he’s come on of late. In his last three games, he’s recorded 41 yards, 74, and 85. In addition, he set a season-high with eight targets before the bye, and he’s the team’s leader in routes. According to Pro Football Focus, Callaway’s 111 routes are 11 clear of Alvin Kamara’s 100 for top honor on the club, and tight end Adam Trautman is a distant third with only 74.
Thus, I’m expecting Callaway to build on his last three games with another stellar showing. Thankfully, Bet Prep supports my belief in Callaway going over his yardage prop as well. They project him for 53.48 receiving yards.