The Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 15. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 15.
Kirk Cousins UNDER 265.5 Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins is playing well this year. However, he has had some boom and bust performances rather than consistently excellent play. Cousins has eclipsed 265.5 passing yards in seven of 13 games. However, one of the six games he has fallen short of that threshold was last week without Adam Thielen.
Unfortunately, Thielen hasn’t practiced this week. The team is holding out hope he’ll play. Nevertheless, his lack of practice participation casts doubt on his availability. A couple more factors lead me to take Cousins’ under.
First, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings play at the 14th-fastest situation neutral pace. However, the Bears might slow the pace down, ranking 24th in situation neutral pace. Second, Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite, setting the stage for a run-heavy game script if things go to plan. As a result, Bet Prep projects Cousins to pass for only 246.24 yards.
Dalvin Cook OVER 92.5 Rushing Yards
The potential for a run-heavy game script I mentioned above is a boon for Dalvin Cook, surpassing 92.5 rushing yards. Further, Alexander Mattison isn’t lurking as a threat to steal playing time since he’s on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Last week, Cook returned from an injury, looking no worse for wear en route to 205 rushing yards on 27 rush attempts.
The 26-year-old running back has exceeded 92.5 rushing yards in five of 10 games. So, this is a coin flip pick before diving deeper. However, parsing the numbers further is encouraging for taking Cook’s over.
First, the Vikings have won four games with Cook playing, and he’s rushed for more than 92.5 yards in three of those games. Considering the Vikings are favored to win, that’s a great split. Second, the Bears stink defending the run. According to Football Outsiders, they are 22nd in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Chicago allows the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs this year. So, Bet Prep projects Cook for 102.53 rushing yards, making the over a good pick.
Darnell Mooney OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
The Bears are underdogs, already making a case for airing it out. If that comes to fruition, Darnell Mooney will eat. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is 20th in Intended Air Yards (1,148) and tied for eighth in target share (25.5%). Moreover, Allen Robinson is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, enhancing Mooney’s role as the unquestioned top passing-game option.
The second-year wideout has a mouthwatering matchup in this game. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Vikings allow the second-most receiving yards (2,545) to wide receivers this year. Minnesota’s bloated receiving yardage total allowed to receivers amounts to 195.77 receiving yards per game ceded to the position.
While Mooney is a target hog in Chicago’s offense, he doesn’t necessarily need a hefty volume of work to hit his over. According to Sharp Football Stats, Minnesota allows the sixth-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). Thus, Mooney and his average depth of target of 12.1 yards downfield is capable of besting 51.5 receiving yards on as little as one reception. Finally, Bet Prep supports Mooney’s over, projecting 56.72 receiving yards.
