After 17 weeks and 256 games, much drama remains as the NFL prepares to conclude its first 17-game season. But not all that drama involves playoff positioning.
Two NFC teams that have been duking it out for point-spread supremacy throughout most of the second half of the season are deadlocked with one game to go. Meanwhile, the squad with the league’s worst record on the field also has locked up at least a share of the league’s worst ATS mark. And the best Over and Under teams of the 2021-22 NFL season have yet to be decided.
We reveal the contenders — and in some cases, crown the champions — for all the various ATS and Over/Under scenarios in the final regular-season edition of the NFL Point Spread Report.
All statistics based off closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 13-3 | 162-92-1 |
| Favorites ATS | 9-6-1 | 122-130-3 |
| Over/Under | 6-10 | 114-139-3 |
And Then There Were Two …
There’s a decent chance that the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers will reprise the 1967 Ice Bowl in a clash for the NFC championship later this month. This week, though, the two division winners slug it out (in separate games) for sole possession of the 2021-22 ATS Championship belt.
A week ago, Dallas (then 12-3 ATS) held a one-game lead over the Packers. But thanks in part to Mike McCarthy going full fourth-quarter Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys stubbed their toe at home against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17.
Hours later, the Packers dumped the Kirk Cousins-less Vikings 37-10 as a 12.5-point home favorite to match Dallas with a 12-4 ATS record.
The Cowboys, who will either be the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs, are a consensus 7-point favorite at Philadelphia on Saturday night. Green Bay, which has locked up the NFC’s No. 1 seed (and only bye), closes its regular season at Detroit on Sunday.
Despite the fact his team has nothing to play for, Packers QB (and presumptive repeat MVP winner) Aaron Rodgers has said he plans to play against the 2-13-1 Lions. Oddsmakers aren’t exactly buying that. They had Green Bay (13-3 SU) as a scant 2.5-point road chalk as of midweek.
For what it’s worth, on consecutive Monday nights early this season, the Packers thumped Detroit 35-17 as an 11.5-point home favorite (Week 2) and Dallas throttled the Eagles 41-21 as a 3.5-point home chalk (Week 3).
From a pure trends perspective, the Cowboys would appear to have the edge. Despite last week’s upset loss to Arizona, they’re an NFL-best 9-3 ATS as a favorite. They’re also 7-1 ATS on the road (second best in the league). Green Bay is 8-4 ATS as a chalk, but only 5-3 ATS on the road (failing to cash in its last two).
Also, the Eagles — who clinched a wild-card berth last week — have been a middling outfit against the number all season (8-7-1 overall; 3-3-1 at home; 3-4 as an underdog). Conversely, the Lions — who clinched vacation plans before Halloween — have been a feisty underdog down the stretch. Prior to its ugly 51-29 Week 17 loss at Seattle, Detroit was on a 6-1 ATS roll (3-0 ATS at home).
A Lose-Lose Situation
Here’s something you don’t hear often this time of year: Congratulations to the Jacksonville Jaguars!
After getting shellacked 50-10 at New England last week — and never threatening to cover as a massive 17-point underdog — the Jaguars find themselves all alone in the point-spread basement at 4-12 ATS.
Jacksonville has now failed to cash in seven consecutive games (longest current ATS slide). That includes four 20-plus-point defeats, and a 14-point home loss … to the Texans. Oddsmakers have pegged the Jags as a 15.5-point home underdog against AFC South rival Indianapolis (which needs a victory to secure a playoff spot).
Should they get pummeled one final time in Week 18, the Jaguars would have outright ownership of the 2021-22 point-spread dunce cap. (They also would become the first team with 13 non-covers in a single season since the 2007 Ravens went 3-13 ATS).
The only team that can “catch” Jacksonville? The Carolina Panthers. Since starting the season 3-0 SU/ATS, Carolina is 2-11 SU/ATS (including six straight outright and point-spread defeats). The Panthers are an 8-point underdog at Tampa Bay in Week 18. (Despite only having a modest shot at moving from the No. 3 to the No. 2 seed, the Buccaneers are planning to roll with all of their healthy starters — including Tom Brady.)
If the Jags can get inside the big number versus the Colts and Carolina fails to cover at Tampa Bay, the two franchises that entered the league together in 1995 would finish 5-12 ATS.
It’s All ‘Over’ For The Jets
This has been anything but a dream season for NFL Over bettors, as only two teams produced solid profits: Both the Jets and Vikings are 10-6 to the Over. Only five other squads — the Chargers, Chiefs, and Eagles (each 9-7), and Bengals and Rams (both 8-7-1) — have played more Overs than Unders.
Thanks mostly to its leaky defense, New York has been an Over machine since Week 4, topping the total in 10 of its last 13 games (including the last three in a row). Minnesota has hurdled the total in six of its last seven overall and was the best Over team on the road (7-2).
Additional teams that have been trending Over the total lately include the Chargers (9-3, including five in a row), Bengals (7-2-1), and Packers (5-1).
The Under side of the equation has been a completely different story. Ten teams already have played at least 10 Unders. The Broncos lead the way at 12-4 to the Under, followed by the Jaguars (11-5), Giants, and Seahawks (both 10-5-1).
Multiple teams enter Week 18 in the midst of lengthy Under trends, including: New Orleans (6-0); Atlanta (7-1); Denver (8-2); Detroit (10-4); Jacksonville and Washington (8-3); and Miami and the Giants (7-2).
Road Warriors Double As Top ’Dogs
If the NFL handed out a Roller Coaster Season of the Year award, the Cardinals would be at least a -5,000 favorite to take home the 2021-22 honor. Arizona started out 7-0 SU (and 6-1 ATS), then dropped five of its next eight on the field and at the betting window.
However, with their 25-22 Week 17 upset of Dallas, the Cardinals capped two incredibly profitable streaks: They finished 8-1 ATS on the road and 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Both marks led the NFL (although the Cowboys could tie Arizona’s 8-1 ATS road record with a spread cover at Philly on Saturday).
The other top ATS road teams are the Colts (6-1), Bengals, and Patriots (both 5-2).
The Packers last week clinched the best point-spread record at home (7-1), finishing ahead of the Titans (6-3), and Buccaneers and Lions (both 5-2).
As noted above, Dallas has been the most profitable favorite (9-3), followed by the Packers and Patriots (both 8-4). Lining up behind the Cardinals on the underdog ledger are the Packers (4-0), Ravens (5-1), Lions (10-6; underdogs in every game), and Titans (6-2).
Which squads sport the worst home/road and favorite/underdog point-spread records? Here’s your answer:
Home: Falcons (1-6), Jaguars and Panthers (2-6), and Cardinals (2-5)
Road: Jaguars (2-6), Jets (2-5), and Bucs and Giants (3-6)
Favorite: Raiders (0-5), Steelers and Panthers (2-5), and Ravens (3-7)
Underdog: Jaguars (4-10), Bears (3-9), and Jets (6-10)
ATS Standings
Best
Packers 12-4
Cowboys 12-4
Lions 10-6
Colts 10-6
Cardinals 10-6
Patriots 10-6
Titans 10-6
Worst
Jaguars 4-12
Panthers 5-11
Jets 6-10
Bears 6-10
Giants 6-10
Washington 6-9-1
Falcons 6-9-1
Over/Under Standings
Over
Jets 10-6
Vikings 10-6
Chargers 9-7
Chiefs 9-7
Eagles 9-7
Under
Broncos 12-4
Jaguars 11-5
Giants 10-5
Seahawks 10-5-1
Six teams tied at 6-10
