BetPrep has props posted for almost every key player in week one. Let’s talk about some of the players that I would expect to hit the over on their receiving yards over, based on what we know right now.
Gio Bernard Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Gio was really the only RB in for the Bucs in passing downs, and this is exactly what we expected when they signed Gio in the offseason. We all know that Tom Brady wants to target his running backs as check downs in the passing game as an extension of the run game or even to simulate a QB run to some degree. Last year, the Bucs really didn’t have an option that they trusted in this situation.
Gio has hit the over on this prop 11 of the last 20 games, and this should be an even more secure role than the one he had throughout his career in Cincinnati. Last year, Leonard Fournette was the Bucs’ receiving back and someone that they clearly wanted to replace. In the playoffs, Fournette had 39, 44, 19, and 46 receiving yards, and I think that they will be more willing to feature Gio than they ever were with Lenny.
Bryan Edwards Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Bryan Edwards was compared to Terrell Owens by his head coach in training camp and has been held back because he is a clear starting WR on this team. If Edwards does play over 80% of the snaps as I expect, this is simply too low. While last year, Edwards only hit this in 3 of 9 games, he only played over 41% of snaps twice. This line is way too low for Edwards in an offense that is looking for secondary playmakers to take the pressure off of tight end Darren Waller.
Justin Jefferson Over 84.5 Yards
Justin Jefferson had a huge rookie season that has led to expectations that he will be a top 10 receiver this season. While I started the offseason a bit hesitant about Jefferson, everything has broken his way, and now Jefferson is left without a tight end to take any targets, and he gets a bad Cincinnati defense. Jefferson hit the over on this number 6 out of his last 8 games in a less concentrated offense, a worse net weather situation, and against a tougher net schedule. Assuming he plays in week 1, this is a smash spot for Jefferson.
