The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 with prime AFC playoff positioning on the line. As both teams battle, look for one Steelers’ receiver to fly past his NFL player props reception number.
I’ve found reception props to be much more reliable than yardage ones. The reasoning here is simply built around volume. I prefer to find players who consistently see the ball, and these props avoid our reliance on big chunk plays.
With that established, I’ve got Diontae Johnson circled in Week 15 as one of my favorite prop targets. He’s been featured here a few times through the weeks, and the reason is simply volume.
Let’s dig into the matchup and why Johnson can go over this Sunday.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep updated at 2 p.m. on Dec. 17.
Diontae Johnson’s Production and Opponent
The Prop: Over 6.5 receptions vs. Tennessee
The Odds: -115
There aren’t many receivers seeing more targets than Johnson consistently, as he currently averages 10.8 per game (second in the NFL).
Johnson has seen double-digit targets from Ben Roethlisberger in five consecutive games and seven of his last eight, as steady as they come.
Johnson has over 6.5 receptions five times in that eight-game span and hasn’t recorded less than five catches in a game.
The man is just plain reliable, and he gets another great opportunity in Week 15 to keep it rolling.
Pittsburgh throws the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL, while Tennessee sees the fourth-most pass attempts against them per game.
Couple that with the fact that the Titans allow the most yards to WRs and the most receptions, and you won’t find yourself a better game to bet on a wide receiver.
While Chase Claypool is a fine option as well, I prefer Johnson and his consistent production.
Diontae Johnson receiving
2021
🔸 119 targets
🔸 2 drops2020
🔹 155 targets
🔹 15 drops pic.twitter.com/0y5ZjCzg7s— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 9, 2021
BetPrep Trends Support Johnson’s Receptions
Diontae Johnson has some solid trends that have me locking in his receptions over:
Recorded 7+ receptions in 6 of his last 8 (75%) games when he has been targeted at least 80 times on the season. (avg. 7.4 per gm)
Recorded 7+ receptions in 8 of his last 11 (72.73%) games when he has caught at least 4 TDs on the season. (avg. 7.6 per gm)
With history on our side and a soft matchup, bet Johnson confidently in Week 15.
