Each week, BetPrep’s NFL Player Props Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.
Brad is on fire at the moment, entering this show with a 23-5 record over the past three weeks. Let’s see if he can keep it going in Week 7.
Note: These write-ups are shortened transcriptions from the podcast episode. Be sure to listen to the podcast for full context on these NFL Player Props!
Myles Gaskin Under 33.5 Rushing Yards
Brad’s Take: This is all about rushing attempts. Five and I should be a winner. Thirteen? No chance. But in the last five games after the five and 13: two, five, and five rush attempts. And then the yards 25, 65, 13, 3, 25, and nine. I don’t love the bet. I don’t think it’s a crazy winner. But I think this is a 60% bet and I have to do it.
Sam Darnold Under 240.5 Passing Yards
Brad’s Take: Yes this is a case where I actually do believe what the coach is saying. And besides that, Darnold has gone Under this 17 of 23 times. That’s 75%. He’s gone way Under his last two games. Now the coach says, “We’re going to redefine who we are. And we’re going to run the football and we’re going to protect our quarterback and we’re not going to turn the ball over anymore.” I don’t think that’s coach-speak.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more NFL bets? Check out Brad’s takes on the NFL futures market prior to Week 7.
D’Andre Swift Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Brad’s Take: Swift plays in the garbage time. He’s the prototype garbage-time player and this game probably will be 38-10 in the fourth quarter. Then it’s “Goff to Swift, eight-yard gain. Goff to Swift, six-yard gain. Goff to Swift. nine-yard gain.” The expected game script says this number is way too low. I’ll take my chances here.
Kyle Pitts Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Brad’s Take: Pitts in his last four games has gone 73, 35, 50, 119 yards. He’s had targets of eight, six, three, nine, and 10. The only game we’re drawing dead is the one where he was three (targets) and 35 (yards). He’s averaging 62 yards a game now and I’m hoping that 100-yard game makes Matt Ryan more comfortable throwing to him.
Calvin Ridley Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
Brad’s Take: I put in the last 25 games, and he’s Over 16 times, 64%. In fairness, recent games are more important, for sure. He’s only Over one of his last five. He did go over his last game. So this comes down to whether I trust the player. The Dolphins are hurt in the secondary. Even if Xavien Howard and Byron Jones play, they won’t be 100%. I would have made the number more like 78.5.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Brad’s Take: I always thought this guy was a decent player. I’m not just saying it now. No BS. Last four games, he’s gone 58, 82, 82, and 60 on seven, seven, six, and nine targets. He’s playing well. I don’t think they’re just gonna say, “We don’t want you there anymore. Thank you, Cordarrelle, for your contributions.” I think he’s a real integral part of this team right now. My real goal here with these Falcons bets is to go 2-1. I think there’s a far better chance that happens than going 1-2.
Cole Kmet Under 3.5 Receptions
Brad’s Take: Kmet 14-5 to the Under in his career. 4-2 this year. Averaging 2.3 catches a game. I get it: Tampa Bay is going to force you to pass. But I hate the coach so much, not personally — I’m sure Matt Nagy is probably a lovely human being — but just for football. He may just run anyway, seriously. If I was offered a million dollars to pick Kmet’s catches and had to choose between four and two, I would go with the two. So that’s just what that comes down to.
Corey Davis Over 3.5 Receptions
Brad’s Take: This is probably my least favorite one to be honest. But I think this is maybe 60%. He’s 14-6 in his last 20 to the Over. He’s 4-1 this year, but it’s not like he’s been clearing the hurdles by a lot.
Miles Sanders Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
Brad’s Take: I think (Sirianni’s) a smart guy. He’s saying, “We have to get Miles Sanders the ball.” He’s saying he wants to run more. But Jalen Hurts is going to do his RPOs and go with the passes no matter what the play is called, or just run it himself. So I’m going to dare this guy to get 66 yards. I don’t even think he’s going to hit 50 — and I think Sanders is a really good player.
Carson Wentz & Jimmy Garoppolo Under 225.5 Passing Yards
Brad’s Take: I’m getting a freeroll here. If the weather is not that bad, and you say even 20 miles per hour according to the physicists doesn’t impact the passing much at all, well then I’ll pay the juice and get out of it. But if it’s 50 mph gusts, I think this is just a great bet. Jimmy Garoppolo his last 15 games is Over eight times. Basically a coin flip with neutral conditions. He’s averaging 218 yards a game. Carson Wentz is just 7-9 on the Over his last 16, averaging 228 yards. So these are fair numbers with good weather and we expect the conditions to be far from perfect.
Deebo Samuel Under 67.5 Receiving Yards
Brad’s Take: LOVE the player. One of my favorites. Again, if the weather is okay, I will pay the juice and get out of this.