NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds got narrowed down to two players in fairly short order this season. By October, Cincinnati Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase established himself as the favorite. Then a strong run through November and the first half of December put New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones on top.
Now, with one game left to settle all company business, it’s once again Jones chasing Chase.
PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn provided an update, with those two players the only ones left on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds board.
Rookie Of The Year Race
Chase was more the dark horse (though a modest one) than the darling in the preseason odds market. PointsBet USA had the former LSU star at +1,400 entering Week 1. Quarterbacks dominated the top of the odds board, per usual: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Zach Wilson were all above Chase.
So too was Jones, who actually overtook Lawrence as the +300 favorite entering Week 1. That move occurred after Bill Belichick cut Cam Newton, paving the way for the rookie QB to take over as the Patriots’ starter. Oddsmakers and bettors felt Jones was in a more ideal situation, and by mid-November, that feeling began to bear fruit.
“Chase was the favorite for most of October and into mid-November. He hasn’t been the favorite since Jones took over as the favorite in mid-November,” Korn said. “Jones’ odds were -105 on Nov. 21 and got all the way into -770 on Dec. 20.”
Indeed, it was seen as a finished race. But Chase had already come back once before. After slipping from his +1,400 opener to +2,000 early in the season, he rebounded to become the +350 favorite Oct. 10. He then moved to -185 just as Jones was starting the Patriots on a 7-0 SU and ATS run. Five games into that stretch, Jones caught and passed Chase.
But this past weekend, Chase may well have stamped his name on the honor. He entered the Bengals’ Week 17 home game against Kansas City as the +350 underdog in PointsBet’s NFL Rookie of the Year odds market. Jones was the healthy -500 chalk entering a home tilt against Jacksonville.
Eleven catches, 266 yards, and three touchdowns later — not to mention a 34-31 come-from-behind upset victory of 3.5-point favorite K.C. — Chase was the underdog no more.
“After Chase’s miraculous performance [against the Chiefs], he became the favorite at -210, and Jones’ odds were shifted out to +155,” Korn said.
Rookie Of The Year Action Pours In On Chase
Jones had a solid Week 17 Sunday himself, throwing for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 50-10 blowout of Jacksonville. But oddsmakers and bettors were nonplused by the Patriots QB padding his stats against an awful Jaguars outfit. Especially when compared with what Chase did against arguably the AFC’s top team and the two-time defending conference champion.
Thanks in large part to Chase’s exploits Sunday, the Bengals clinched the AFC North title for the first time since 2015.
“Constant action on Chase throughout the day [Monday] has forced us to push his odds out to -225, and consequently we have pushed Jones’ odds out to +165,” Korn said, while noting PointsBet is a fan of Chase. “Both Chase and Jones will be losing results for the book, although Chase will be the better of the two. We’ll be rooting for Chase to soften the blow slightly.”
Each player gets one more shot at making a statement, with Chase and the Bengals hosting Cleveland, and Jones and the Patriots traveling to Miami. But Chase might have just ended this season-long race in Week 17.