The NFL season will be here before we know it. Most major free agents have found homes, and the NFL Draft is in the rearview. Thus, barring significant injuries, the general outlook for teams is clear.
It’s an excellent time to scope out the sportsbooks. Gamblers are encouraged to line shop for the best odds for team futures, such as team wins totals, to-make-playoff bets, division winners, conference winners, the Super Bowl winner, etc.
The NFC South was lousy last year. No one had a winning record or a positive point differential in 2022. And it remains arguably the worst division in the NFL this year. The division is wide open, creating positive betting odds to win the division for each club.
NFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +120 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +215 |
| Carolina Panthers | +400 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +800 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 23.
Saints Odds To Win NFC South: (+120)
The Saints were 7-10 last year but had the best point differential in the NFC South. But of course, that’s not saying much since they were outscored by 15 points by their opponents. Staying true to their recent tendencies, they made a questionable win-now move by signing Derek Carr in free agency.
The division is wide open. So, it’s understandable why they’d make a run at the division. However, the winner of this division is unlikely to be a legitimate Super Bowl threat, and Carr isn’t necessarily an upgrade over the 2022 version of Andy Dalton. In fact, Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave Dalton their seventh-highest passing grade, and Carr was 28th out of 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in the regular season and postseason last year.
New Orleans’s head coach is also the least accomplished in the division. The 7-10 record the Saints posted last year was Dennis Allen’s best as a head coach after going 4-12, 4-12, and 0-4 (he was fired after Week 4) as the head coach for the Raiders. Thus, +120 odds feel too short for a flawed team with an unimpressive head coach.
Falcons Odds To Win NFC South: (+215)
The Falcons were 7-10 and outscored by 21 points by their opponents last year. Atlanta’s most significant issue last year was their lousy play at quarterback. Among 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks last year in the regular season and postseason, Marcus Mariota was 34th, and Desmond Ridder was 36th in PFF’s passing grade. However, PFF also credited Ridder with only two turnover-worthy plays and a 1.4 TWP% on 136 dropbacks. So, he demonstrated the ability to take care of the ball. Comparatively, Mariota had 15 turnover-worthy plays and a 4.0 TWP%.
Perhaps, taking care of the ball can be enough for the Falcons to take a step forward this year since head coach Arthur Smith loves to lean on a successful rushing attack. According to the nfelo app, the Falcons had the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expected (-13.7% PROE). Atlanta seems to have tipped their hand for wanting to maintain their run-heavy attack this year by selecting Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick in this year’s NFL Draft.
Robinson is an exciting prospect, and Atlanta had a top-shelf rushing attack last year. Per PFF, the Falcons earned PFF’s fifth-highest grade for running and the highest run-blocking grade. And according to Football Outsiders, Atlanta was third in rushing offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Can a run-heavy approach win a division in today’s pass-happy NFL? It probably couldn’t get the job done in most divisions, but Atlanta should stay in the hunt in the NFC South this season.
Panthers Odds To Win NFC South: (+400)
The Panthers overhauled many critical spots this year. Most notably, they hired Frank Reich and a well-regarded collection of assistants to coach the club and traded up to the first pick in the NFL Draft to select Bryce Young.
Young was tied for PFF’s highest passing grade in 2022 among FBS quarterbacks who dropped back at least 100 times. He completed 245 of 380 attempts (64.5%) for 3,325 yards, 32 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 12 games. Young enters the NFL with over 1,000 dropbacks in his collegiate career. The experience could allow him to hit the ground running and instantly perform as the best quarterback in the division.
On the other side of the ball, Carolina’s defense was approximately average last year. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers were 19th in scoring defense (22.0 points per game) and 16th in yards allowed per play (5.4).
Buccaneers Odds To Win NFC South: (+800)
The Buccaneers won the NFC South in 2022 with an 8-9 record and the division’s worst point differential (-45 points). Tom Brady has since retired, and the hilariously bad combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask is competing for the starting quarterback gig.
Checking in on the Bucs' QB competition between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/8kZQzEbdsp
— Kyle Burger (@kyle_burger) May 30, 2023
As if Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation isn’t discouraging enough, Todd Bowles is a career-long loser as a head coach. He has a 34-50 record as a head coach and only one winning season in five full seasons as a head coach. The Buccaneers are likelier to land the first pick in the NFL Draft in 2024 than to win the NFC South.
NFC South Predictions & Best Bet
The Panthers have a solid foundation in place on defense, hope at quarterback, and the most accomplished head coach in the division. Reich has a 40-33-1 record as a head coach and three winning seasons in four full years and one partial season (he was fired after Week 9 last year).
Carolina’s ability to win the division largely hinges on Young hitting the ground running. Still, good play from rookie quarterbacks isn’t unprecedented in recent years. In a wide-open division, betting on the Panthers to win the NFC South at +400 odds is exciting.
Best Bet: Carolina Panthers to Win the NFC South | +400 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: