The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, Aug. 31
Lance Lynn: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.00 ERA indicates
Lynn has struggled quite a bit this season. He enters this game with a 3-5 record and a 5.00 ERA. He also owns a 3.31 xFIP through 14 starts.
Lynn’s advanced metrics have been inconsistent at times this season, but he’s been throwing at a high level. He’s posted an xFIP under 2.50 in 5 of his last 7 starts. His xFIP sat above 4.00 in only 1 of those starts.
Lynn gets a solid matchup against the Kansas City Royals. They’ve struggled a bit in recent games, posting a .297 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Lynn is due for positive regression, and he’s throwing at a high level. He gets a plus matchup against the Kansas City Royals, and he should find plenty of success in this game.
Tyler Anderson: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.69 ERA suggests
Anderson has been throwing at an extremely high level throughout the 2022 season. He owns a 13-2 record with a 2.69 ERA through 24 games (22 starts). He’s struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 4.12 xFIP.
Anderson has seen plenty of ups and downs in terms of advanced metrics this season. He’s been struggling recently, though. Anderson’s posted an xFIP over 4.00 in 7 of his last 8 starts. He recorded as high as a 6.68 xFIP against the San Francisco Giants over that span.
Anderson gets a tough matchup against the New York Mets. They struggled offensively for a stretch this season, but they’ve caught fire in recent games. The Mets boast a .328 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Anderson has been struggling, and he’s due for regression. He could struggle in a tough matchup against New York tonight.
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Alex Wood: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants | 3:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.00 ERA suggests
Wood has struggled with an 8-11 record and a 5.00 ERA through 25 starts this season. He’s throwing significantly better than that, though, as he owns a 3.43 xFIP through 126 innings.
Wood has been a bit of a boom or bust option throughout the season. He’s faced off against the San Diego Padres four times this season. He’s found success more often than not in those games.
Wood will face off against the Padres again today. They have been playing well recently, posting a .322 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Wood is due for positive regression, and he’s thrown well against the Padres earlier this season. He certainly could throw well in this game, although I wouldn’t feel overly confident in the left-hander.