The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, Aug. 30
Matt Manning: Detroit Tigers
Matchup: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.37 ERA indicates
Manning has looked outstanding in limited innings this season. He owns a 1-1 record with a 2.37 ERA through 7 starts. He’s struggled more than that, though, as he also owns a 4.10 xFIP this season.
Manning has thrown two gems this season. He owns xFIPs under 2.00 in both of those starts. He’s also recorded xFIPs over 4.00 in 4 of his 7 starts, including a 6.89 xFIP against the Minnesota Twins.
Manning gets a matchup against the Seattle Mariners tonight. They’ve been an average offense in recent games, posting a .302 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They do boast tremendous offensive upside, though.
Bottom Line: Manning has seen mixed results in terms of advanced metrics, and he gets a tough matchup against Seattle tonight. He’s a pitcher that I’d avoid tonight.
Blake Snell: San Diego Padres
Matchup: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants | 9:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.24 ERA suggests
Snell has seen mixed results through 17 starts in 2022. He’s posted a 5-7 record with a 4.24 ERA through 87 innings. He owns a dominant 3.34 xFIP as well.
Snell has been throwing at an extremely high level for quite some time. He’s recorded a 3.58 xFIP or better in 9 of his last 10 starts. He also posted an xFIP under 2.00 in 4 of those starts.
Snell gets a plus matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They have been struggling in recent games, posting a .267 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They’ve also been average against left-handed pitching since the trade deadline.
Bottom Line: Snell is throwing at an extremely high level, even if his performances don’t consistently represent that. He should find plenty of success against the Giants tonight.
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Kutter Crawford: Boston Red Sox
Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.30 ERA suggests
Crawford has struggled quite a bit throughout his rookie season. He owns a 3-5 record with a 5.30 ERA through 20 games (11 starts). He’s also recorded a 4.17 xFIP through 73 innings.
Crawford has been at his worst on the road this season. He owns a 6.27 ERA through 33 road innings in 2022. With that being said, his xFIP drops to 3.74 in those innings.
Crawford gets an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Twins. They boast a high upside offense, but they’ve been struggling over the last 14 days. Over that span, they’ve posted a .293 team wOBA.
Bottom Line: Crawford isn’t a great pitcher, but he’s been than he’s been throwing, specifically on the road. He could find success against the Twins tonight.
