The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Aug. 29
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:07 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.28 ERA indicates
Berrios’ struggled quite a bit this season. He owns a 9-5 record with a 5.28 ERA through 25 starts. He’s throwing better than these numbers suggest, though, as he also owns a 4.04 xFIP in 2022.
Berrios is a better pitcher at home. He’s recorded a 4.10 ERA through 68 home innings this season. His xFIP dips to 3.67 in Toronto, suggesting he’s due for some positive regression at home as well.
Berrios gets a plus matchup against the Chicago Cubs. They’ve been struggling in recent games, posting a .269 team wOBA over the last 14 days. The right-hander is in a great spot tonight.
Bottom Line: Berrios is due for positive regression as the season closes out. He gets a great matchup against Chicago tonight, and he should find plenty of success in this start.
Bet $5 On NFL, Get $200 In Free Bets
Football is back! DraftKings is running an exclusive offer leading up to kickoff.
Simply bet $5+ on any NFL or NCAAF game and get $200 in free bets instantly. No matter if your wager wins or loses.
This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
Tackle this special offer through our exclusive link here.
Tony Gonsolin: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins | 6:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.10 ERA suggests
Gonsolin has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season. He enters this game with a 16-1 record and an elite 2.10 ERA. He’s also posted a 3.74 xFIP, though, which is a bit concerning.
Gonsolin has been elite throughout his career at avoiding regression, though. He’s recorded -1.97, -1.49, and -1.40 xFIP/ERA differentials throughout his MLB career.
Gonsolin gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins tonight. They’ve been one of the worst offenses in the MLB, and they own a .263 team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Gonsolin has consistently avoided regression throughout his career, and he may be a pitcher that can simply beat it. I’m expecting him to find plenty of success in this particular matchup, even with the regression questions.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today – Top MLB Player Props (Daily Picks)
Mike Clevinger: San Diego Padres
Matchup: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants | 9:45 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.59 ERA suggests
Clevinger has seen mixed results throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 4-5 record with a 3.59 ERA through 16 games (15 starts). His xFIP sits at only 4.47 this season.
Clevinger has struggled in each of his last 4 starts. Over that span, he’s recorded 4.73, 8.48, 6.98, and 6.89 xFIPs. His ERA sat above his xFIP in only 1 of those 4 starts.
Clevinger gets a plus matchup against the San Francisco Giants tonight. They’ve struggled with a .268 team wOBA over the last 14 days. He’ll benefit from throwing in San Francisco’s stadium as well.
Bottom Line: Clevinger’s advanced metrics don’t look great, but this is a solid matchup. I could see this going either way, although I do slightly favor Clevinger compared to San Francisco’s offense.
