Kalshi Super Bowl Betting Guide – “Big Game” Strategy

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is the first fully regulated exchange in the United States dedicated solely to trading on the outcome of future events. It was co‐founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, two MIT graduates who noticed that traders at major financial institutions often made complicated bets on event outcomes (e.g., Brexit), but lacked a simple, direct way to do so.

Kalshi solves this problem by creating Event Contracts: yes‐or‐no propositions about specific real‐world events. These contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), placing Kalshi on the same legal footing as big exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). By focusing on everyday events—economic data releases, political outcomes, weather phenomena, and of course, sports—Kalshi lets users express views on the real world in a straightforward, fully compliant environment.

How Kalshi’s Percentage (Price) System Works

One of the most distinctive features of Kalshi is its transparent, probability‐based pricing system. Each event contract has two sides: “Yes” (the event will happen) and “No” (the event will not happen). Prices are listed in “cents,” which also serve as an implied probability percentage. For example:

• If the Yes side trades at 54¢, that implies roughly a 54% chance of the event happening, according to the market.
• If you buy 1 contract of Yes at 54¢, and the event occurs, your payout is $1.00—thus you net 46¢ of profit.
• Conversely, the No side in that example might be trading at or near 46¢ (because 100¢ − 54¢ = 46¢). If you buy the No side at 46¢ and the event does not occur, you get $1.00, yielding 54¢ of profit.

This pricing mechanism gives you an instant sense of how likely the market believes any event is. It also lets you hedge or speculate without dealing with point spreads, parlays, or the usual complexities of traditional sports betting.

The Four Main “Big Game” Markets on Kalshi

Kalshi’s football tab—sometimes labeled “Big Game” or “pro football” to avoid direct references to the NFL’s official nomenclature—features several Super Bowl‐related markets. The four biggest revolve around (1) which team will win, (2) which companies will run ads, (3) who will join Kendrick Lamar on the halftime show, and (4) which songs will be performed during that show. Below is a closer look at each one.

1. Kansas City vs. Philadelphia Football

 Link: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsb/super-bowl

The flagship market is all about picking the eventual winner between Kansas City and Philadelphia. One quick glance at the Kalshi interface shows Kansas City at around 54% (listed as 54¢) and Philadelphia at around 47% (47¢). These percentages (prices) shift continually as money comes in, reflecting traders’ evolving sentiment.

• Why it’s unique on Kalshi: Unlike a conventional point spread bet, this is a simple yes‐or‐no contract on “Will Kansas City win the Pro Football Championship?” or “Will Philadelphia win?” No partial covers or half‐point heartbreaks—just pick your winner and buy Yes or No.

For bettors who like having clarity—no messing with a line or margin of victory—this is a refreshingly direct approach. And if you change your mind mid‐week, you can sell your position in the marketplace, possibly even at a profit if the price has swung your way.

2. Which Companies Will Run Ads During the Big Game?

Link: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsbads/super-bowl-ads

One of the best things about the Super Bowl is always the commercials, and Kalshi has turned that cultural fascination into a tradable event. The exchange offers a roster of household names—T-Mobile, Apple Inc., Coca‐Cola, OpenAI, Verizon, and more—and you can buy Yes or No on whether each brand will actually run a national ad during the broadcast.

• Current favorites:
  • T‐Mobile leads the pack at 84% (Yes = 84¢),
  • Apple Inc. at 68% (Yes = 68¢),
  • Coca‐Cola at 65%,
  • OpenAI is hovering around 53%, and
  • Verizon sits at about 47%.

If you think Verizon is a sure bet (perhaps something similar to their Beyonce 2024 Super Bowl ad), you could buy its Yes side at ~49¢. Or if you think they’re skipping, you can side with No (~54¢).

Important: The market only counts ads aired on the national broadcast during commercial breaks after kickoff and before the game ends—so a quick cameo by a brand in a stadium sponsor shot does not count. That level of specificity is standard on Kalshi, which posts rules clarifications (e.g., for “Apple” it includes Beats ads) so everyone knows what qualifies.

3. Who Will Be Part of Kendrick’s Half‐Time Show?

Link: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsbperform/super-bowl-performers

The half‐time show can rival the game itself for entertainment. This year, we have a star in Kendrick Lamar, and Kalshi’s given you a way to trade on the question: Which artists will join him on stage?

Here, each possible performer is listed with their own contract. You might see:

• SZA at 98% (“Yes” around 99¢—the market’s near lock)
• Baby Keem at 60% (Yes = 60¢)
• Mustard at 57% (Yes = 57¢)
• Lil’ Wayne, Jay Rock, Doechii, and others with lower probabilities.

This is a fun, niche style of bet not often found on typical sports‐betting platforms. Moreover, you can buy and sell leading up to the show, letting you pivot if new rumors break about a cameo.

Tip: Kalshi’s rule clarifications matter here, too. If Mustard is just a cameo in a recorded track or appears in a pre‐recorded music video, that doesn’t count as a performance. So read the details to make sure you know exactly what “performance” entails.

4. What Songs Will Be Played at the Half‐Time Show?

 Link: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsbsetlists/super-bowl-setlist

Rounding out the list of must‐see Super Bowl markets is one that zeroes in on specific songs. Will Kendrick Lamar and co perform “Humble,” “mAAd city,” or even the deeper cut “King Kunta?”

• The market leaders currently include:
  • “All The Stars” near 97% (Yes = 99¢)
  • “Humble” at 94%
  • “Not Like Us” at 92%
  • “luther” at 91%
  • “mAAd city” at 68%
  • “Alright” at 67%, and
  • “King Kunta” hovering around 36%.

Just like with the potential guests, each song has a yes‐or‐no contract that resolves based on whether it actually gets performed live during half‐time. This format has proven to be a hit among fans who love reading set‐list leaks or analyzing artists’ typical show openers.

Why People Are Flocking to Kalshi for Big Game Props

1. Regulated and Legal: Unlike offshore sportsbooks that may lack proper regulatory oversight, Kalshi holds a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC. This status ensures stricter rules, better transparency, and clearer dispute resolution.
2. Market Efficiency: Kalshi’s platform functions like a legitimate exchange, meaning prices reflect real supply and demand. If you see a contract at 54¢, that’s the market consensus of a 54% probability—not a line set arbitrarily by a bookmaker.
3. Flexibility: You can trade in and out of positions before the event resolves. If you buy “Kansas City Yes” early at 50¢ and the price surges to 60¢ after positive news, you can sell and lock in profit without waiting for game day.
4. Simple Binary Structure: Betting on an event to happen or not happen is easy to understand, even for newcomers. You either end up with $1.00 per contract if your side is correct or zero if you’re incorrect.
5. Fun Niche Markets: From halftime performances to the possibility of an OpenAI commercial, Kalshi’s offerings go beyond typical “over/unders.” You won’t find many mainstream sportsbooks giving you the chance to bet on whether SZA joins Kendrick Lamar.

How to Get In on the Action

Because Kalshi is regulated, signing up generally requires ID verification—similar to opening a brokerage account—so plan accordingly if you want to place trades. Once you’re in, head over to the “Football” or “Big Game” section and browse the live markets. You’ll see a list of yes‐or‐no questions along with current “Yes” and “No” prices.

If a contract is at 54¢ to “Yes,” you can buy that side at 54¢ per contract. You can also pick the “No” side for around 46¢ (the mirror probability). The moment the event is confirmed or refuted—like when the final whistle blows or a certain ad airs—that market resolves, and winning traders get $1.00 per winning share.

Final Thoughts

Kalshi’s emergence adds a refreshing, highly regulated spin to Super Bowl prop bets. By treating events as tradable assets, Kalshi democratizes a realm that used to be the domain of big banks and hedge funds. Now, if you feel strongly that Apple is a lock to run an ad, or that “King Kunta” is definitely making the halftime set‐list, there’s a legitimate, transparent market for you to put real money behind those insights.

So, whether you’re a die‐hard Chiefs or Eagles fan, a connoisseur of halftime shows, or just love dissecting the year’s biggest commercials, Kalshi’s “Big Game” markets offer an appealing alternative to the usual sports betting routine. With each contract reflecting the pulse of a thriving exchange, you may find that simply watching the scoreboard is no longer enough—trading on Kalshi can be as exhilarating as the action on the field.

Ready to get started? Head over to kalshi.com (search under “Football” or “Big Game”), sign up, and explore these four major markets. It could be the most engaging—and potentially profitable—way to share your Super Bowl predictions this season.

Disclaimer: Trading on Kalshi involves risk. As with any financial product, be aware that you could lose your entire stake. Always review contract rules and do your own research before participating.