Our Injury Report NBA article is here to bring you all of the daily updates needed to maximize your bets for the day.
Make sure to check back regularly to this NBA injury report article as each pick could help inform your betting. We’ll update this article with three of our top injuries that will have a significant impact on certain matchups.
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Injury Report NBA – Key News For Friday, Mar. 4
We’re set for the penultimate Friday night slate of the regular season, and we’ll once again be treated a full night of action with 10 games on tap. The injury report continues to have plenty of impactful names as well, which, as customary, serves as an X-factor we must account for in both the betting and daily fantasy sense.
Today’s article will examine the top seven confirmed or potential prominent absences on tonight’s NBA slate and how the player’s team may be impacted, including how others could benefit from that star potentially being off the floor.
We’ll also list some additional noteworthy short-term injuries at the end of today’s article:
Cade Cunningham, Pistons, QUESTIONABLE (calf):
Cunningham could miss his 11th game of the season – and sixth straight – Friday against the Raptors due to his calf strain. Following its 119-103 loss to the Thunder on Wednesday in Cunningham’s most recent absence, Detroit now has a 5-5 record in games he’s missed while averaging a robust 113.2 points per contest.
Malik Beasley is the leader among healthy Pistons regulars with a 24.5% usage rate whenever Cunningham and Tobias Harris (OUT-Achilles) are off the floor, complementing that figure with averages of 25.3 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists per 36 minutes, along with 18.2 shot attempts.
If Cunningham is out again Friday, Dennis Schroder, who’s averaged 13.2 points, 7.8 assists and 3.6 rebounds over his last five games while starting in Cunningham’s stead, should man point guard on the first unit again versus Toronto, although he’s shooting only 32.3% in that span.
Kevin Durant, Suns, OUT (ankle):
Durant will remain out Friday against the Celtics due to the ankle sprain that already cost him Tuesday’s game against the Bucks. Following its 133-123 loss to Milwaukee, Phoenix now has a 2-12 record in KD’s 14 absences while averaging 112.9 points per game in that span. Both of the victories have notably come against the lowly Utah Jazz.
Whenever Durant is off the floor, Devin Booker leads the Suns with a 32.1% usage rate and per-36 averages of 26.7 points, 6.6 assists and 3.9 rebounds. Booker is also averaging 20.2 shot attempts per 36 minutes in that split, compared to 16.6 when on the court with Durant. Notably, Bradley Beal, who’s off the injury report Friday after an eight-game absence due to a hamstring injury, is second in that split with a 29.6% usage rate and 24.6 points (on 19.4 shot attempts) per 36 minutes.
In Durant’s first absence Tuesday, Grayson Allen drew the start for KD and finished with 23 points, three assists, two rebounds and one steal, along with a 24.6% usage rate, across 34 minutes. The veteran wing could therefore run with the first unit again Friday versus Boston, although it’s also possible Beal gets worked back into the starting five in his return and dings both Booker and Allen’s usage to an extent.
Jamal Murray, Nuggets, QUESTIONABLE (hamstring):
Murray appears to be a 50/50 proposition to miss his 13th game of the season, including his fourth straight, Friday against the Warriors due to his hamstring strain. Following its 113-106 loss to San Antonio on Wednesday in Murray’s most recent absence, Denver is now 8-4 without him this season and has averaged 121.1 points per game in that sample.
Nikola Jokic sports a team-high 34.7% usage rate when Murray is off the floor and averages 34.0, 13.0 rebounds, 10.1 assists and 1.9 steals per 36 minutes in that scenario as well. Two games ago, Jokic put together his memorable 61-point 10-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in the double-OT thriller versus the Timberwolves, and he then understandably got the following night off.
Russell Westbrook, who’s second in that split with a 26.0% usage rate, is very likely to get the call Friday if Murray sits out. Westbrook generated a 30-point, 11-rebound double-double that also included six assists and three steals over 40 minutes in his start for Murray against the Spurs on Wednesday, albeit with Jokic also sitting out.
Jaylen Brown, Celtics, QUESTIONABLE (knee):
Brown could miss his 18th game of the season Friday against the Suns due to his ongoing knee issues. Following their 117-103 win over the Grizzlies on Monday in Brown’s most recent absence, the Celtics are 13-3 in Brown’s absences this season while averaging 112.9 points per game and recording double-digit victories in eight of the last nine wins in that sample.
Unsurprisingly, it’s Jayson Tatum who’s the Celtics’ usage leader when Brown is off the floor, putting up a 36.8% rate in that scenario, compared to a 27.0% figure when sharing the court with him. Tatum’s shot attempts also take a big leap from 17.3 per 36 to 23.8 per 36 when Brown is on the bench. Kristaps Porzingis (27.2% usage) and Derrick White (25.1% usage) are the next two biggest beneficiaries.
If Brown can’t play Friday, Sam Hauser or Al Horford could enter the starting five in his stead. Horford may be the preferred option, as he’s cleared the injury report following a toe issue that sidelined him for Wednesday’s game against the Heat and has averaged 18.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.0 blocks in his last three contests.
Anfernee Simons, Trail Blazers, QUESTIONABLE (forearm):
Simons is questionable to suit up for Friday’s game against the Bulls due to the forearm contusion that’s already cost him the last two games. Following its 112-103 win over the Raptors in Simons’ most recent absence Thursday, Portland is now 6-1 with an average of 114.1 points per game in the games the star point guard has missed.
Shaedon Sharpe was already the Trail Blazers’ leader in usage (27.4%) whenever Simons is off the floor going into Thursday’s victory over Toronto, and he then proceeded to put up 36 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals over 34 minutes. Dalano Blanton, who ranked second with a 25.3% usage rate sans Simons, posted 23 points, three rebounds and two assists while taking 19 shot attempts from the field and another five from the free-throw line.
If Simons is sidelined again Friday, Blanton will almost certainly draw another start at point guard versus a Toronto squad ranked No. 18 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to ones (26.6).
Pascal Siakam, Pacers, QUESTIONABLE (elbow):
Siakam could miss his second game of the season Friday against the Jazz due to right elbow bursitis. Indiana won the only other game Siakam missed this season, prevailing by a 132-130 win over the Timberwolves back on March 17. In that contest, which Tyrese Haliburton also missed, Bennedict Mathurin (Questionable-calf) generated a team-high 26.6% usage rate, but Obi Toppin put up a team-high 34 points while starting in Siakam’s place.
When Siakam has been off the floor this season, Haliburton has led the way with a 25.4% usage rate and has also contributed 22.5 points, 10.3 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals per 36 minutes in that scenario. T.J. McConnell (23.8% usage), Mathurin (22.8%) and Myles Turner (22.7%) are next on that leaderboard, while Toppin checks in right below that tier with a 20.3% figure.
If Siakam does sit out Friday, Toppin, who’s averaging 13.4 points (on 58.7% shooting, including 45.0% from distance), 3.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists over 19.9 minutes in the seven games since that March 17 start, is likely to draw the start at power forward.
Tobias Harris, Pistons, OUT (Achilles):
Harris will miss his seventh game of the season Friday against the Raptors due to the Achilles strain that’s caused him to sit out two of the last three contests. Detroit is 3-3 without Harris this season, albeit with an impressive average of 120.3 points per game.
If Cunningham can play through his injury Friday, he’d be the player most poised to benefit on paper from Harris’ absence since he carries a 34.9% usage rate when the latter is off the floor.
In Harris’ absence Friday, either Beasley or Tim Hardaway could enter the starting five. Beasley supplied 27 points and two rebounds over 38 minutes in Harris’ most recent absence Sunday, a game that Cunningham also missed.
Additional notable short-term injuries: Lauri Markkanen, Jazz, OUT (knee); John Collins, Jazz, OUT (ankle); Walker Kessler, Jazz, OUT (concussion/nose); Jeremy Sochan, SAN, OUT (back); P.J. Washington, Mavericks, QUESTIONABLE (illness); Bennedict Mathurin, Pacers, QUESTIONABLE (calf); Aaron Nesmith, Pacers, QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
NBA Injury Report Betting Guide
With a long 82-game season that’s played out on the unforgiving surface of the hardwood – not to mention the fact players are faster and more physical than ever – injuries are a nightly albatross for coaches, players, fans and bettors alike to contend with from their respective perspectives.
Pay Attention To Star Players
For those of us spectators that like to add a little monetary incentive to the games we consume, NBA injuries to frontline players are particularly impactful due to the compact number of players on a first unit and the inherent dependency the production of each typically has on their teammates.
Usage Rate Is Key
Perhaps the single most revelatory metric for gauging the impact of a player’s absence is usage rate, commonly defined as a measure of what percentage of a team’s plays a specific player is involved in by touching the ball in some form.
There is no shortage of tools available that pinpoint what players benefit the most from another’s absence in terms of a rise in usage rate, and those same tools also typically provide each player’s average in all major categories when another specified player is off the floor.
Line and Total Movement Impact
The bigger the name in terms of an injured player, the bigger the impact naturally is on betting strategy.
However, that in itself is a multi-layered scenario – there are many factors that go into determining how to go about wagering on a team missing a major star on any given night, including how much line and totals movement has occurred as a result of the news.
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