We’re treated to the first Monday Night Football game of the year tonight to cap off an exciting first week of NFL action. But, of course, the fantasy sports action continues as well, and Underdog Fantasy is to the rescue with their Pick ’em contests.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $25 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 1.
Josh Jacobs UNDER 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Jacobs was exceptionally game-script-dependent last year. To that point, when the Raiders trailed by four or more points, he rushed 79 times for 289 yards. Comparatively, backups Devontae Booker soaked up 28 carries for 103 yards, and Jalen Richard even received 14 carries. More alarmingly, he was targeted a paltry 18 times, parlaying them into 14 receptions for 120 receiving yards. When the Raiders trailed by that margin, the looks were distributed heavily to Darren Waller (69), Hunter Renfrow (42), and Nelson Agholor (38) — more on the target distribution to come with my next pick.
Basically, if the game gets sideways for the Raiders, it’s trouble for Jacobs’ over. In addition, the team added Kenyan Drake. Beyond profiling as their preferred receiving back, Drake could siphon early-down touches in a below-average matchup as it stands. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Ravens allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (108.8) last season.
I’m bearish on the Raiders’ outlook tonight, and they’re four-point underdogs. Also, BetPrep is in alignment with my expectations for Jacobs falling short of his yardage prop. Combining his projection of 54.65 rushing yards and 8.04 receiving yards leaves 62.69 rushing plus receiving yards. Thus, the projection is under his total.
Henry Ruggs UNDER 3.0 Receptions
Even if you forgive Ruggs for his underwhelming rookie season, the matchup’s not ideal for his profile. According to Sports Info Solutions, Ruggs’ average depth of target on his 43 was a gaudy 17.7 yards downfield. Unfortunately for him, the Ravens suppressed explosive plays. In fact, according to Sharp Info Solutions, they yielded the lowest percentage average explosive play rate (6%), tying for the lowest raw total of explosive passes allowed with 42. Maybe they’ll stumble in the absence of cornerback Marcus Peters. Regardless, I don’t expect them to crater.
Also, as I promised, let’s dive back into the target distribution when the Raiders trailed by four or more points last year. Even taking the optimistic view that Ruggs is a one-for-one replacement for Agholor’s productive role in last year’s offense, the result was ranking third in the pecking order for targets while playing catch-up.
Waller’s clearly the alpha pass-catching option. Renfrow’s a popular underneath target. Finally, fellow second-year receiver Bryan Edwards generated offseason buzz, potentially placing him ahead of Ruggs in the target hierarchy. Finally, Ruggs’ single-game high for receptions in 13 games last year was three. He hit that mark six times in 13 games but obviously never cleared it. And, once again, BetPrep provides me peace of mind with a projection of only 1.81 receptions for Ruggs.
Ty’Son Williams OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards
Baltimore’s running back room was unfortunately thinned out by injury before the season even began. J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill are all out for the season. As a result, Williams is the only back remaining on the roster with any meaningful time learning the team’s offense.
The Ravens have plundered from the pile of washed-up backs to add depth, such as Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Trenton Cannon. Yikes. It’s probable none of them are up to speed to cut into Williams’ workload in a significant way. The recent example of the Rams trading for Sony Michel and waiting until late in a blowout to utilize him last night provide an example of a likely outcome for Baltimore’s underwhelming depth adds — for whichever of them are even active, that is.
As for Williams, being the lead back in the NFL’s most run-heavy offense is optimal for hitting his over. Sure, Jackson’s rushing factor into them leading. However, his ability to stress the defense has also helped his backs ball out. Dobbins averaged 6.0 Y/A, Edwards averaged 5.0 Y/A, and even Mark Ingram sported 4.2 Y/A last year. The season before, Edwards ripped defenses for 5.3 Y/A, and Ingram ripped off 5.0 Y/A.
Williams doesn’t have draft capital or prospect pedigree. Though, neither did Edwards. Further, Matt Waldman was a fan of his work when evaluating him coming out of college, and I value his tape-grinding analysis and acumen. When you add in a likely neutral to favorable game script, I like Williams’ odds of receiving the workload he needs to surpass his rushing yardage over.
