Thursday Night Football Props – Week 17 NFL Picks

Looking for all the best Thursday Night Football props? You have come to the right place. Every week, we ask our analysts to sift through all the best daily fantasy sports sites to find you their best TNF player props for every week of the NFL season.

Make sure to check back weekly as this page will be updated a few days prior to each week’s matchup so you can get your bets in early to grab the most value.

So let’s dive into our best plays for this week’s matchup.

Thursday Night Football Props: Week 17 Picks

Josh Shepardson breaks down his top Week 17 TNF picks for tonight:

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D’Andre Swift Less Than 56.5 Rushing Yards

It was head-scratching when the Bears prioritized signing D’Andre Swift at the beginning of free agency. In fact, he was the first announced signing when the legal tampering period flipped to the official signing period.

It’s unsurprising Swift has had a mediocre season after a career year behind Philadephia’s elite offensive line. According to Pro Football Reference, Swift has averaged only 56.1 rushing yards per game, with a median of 51. He’s fallen short of 56.5 rushing yards in eight of 15 games.

Moreover, Swift’s advanced stats are also unimpressive. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 64 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this year, Swift is 48th in yards per carry (3.81), 40th in yards before contact per attempt (1.65), 44th in yards after contact per attempt (2.15), tied for 32nd in explosive run percentage (4.1%), 58th in stuff percentage (54.3%), tied for 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.13), 55th in success rate (36.1%) in zone concepts, and 35th in success rate (48.4%) in man/gap concepts.

Swift is unlikely to buck his season average and median against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. The Seahawks have permitted a ho-hum 4.23 yards per carry on 102 rush attempts since Week 13. Finally, the Bears are underdogs and likely need to throw the football to keep up or catch up.

Where to play: D’Andre Swift Less Than 56.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog

D’Andre Swift More Than 14.5 Receiving Yards

A negative game script for Swift’s rushing outlook would be positive for his receiving potential. The Bears are 3.5-point underdogs on Thursday Night Football against the visiting Seahawks. When Caleb Williams takes to the air, Swift should be on the receiving end of some of his rookie signal-caller’s pass attempts.

Swift has averaged 2.5 receptions per game and 23.9 receiving yards per game in 15 contests this year. However, it’s also important to note the Bears fired offensive coordinator Matt Waldron and replaced him with Thomas Brown as the club’s play-caller. In five games without Waldron, Swift has had a 43.4% route participation rate, 1.6-yard average depth of target, 6.6% target share, 0.13 targets per route run, 10 receptions (2.0 per game), 115 receiving yards (23.0 per game), and 5.0% first-read percentage.

Justifiably, Brown has funneled more passes through Chicago’s trio of wide receivers, and Swift has lost some receiving work. Still, the veteran running back has chipped in receiving production. He also has a favorable matchup.

According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks have yielded 4.53 receptions per game and 36.3 receiving yards per game to running backs. Furthermore, 18.2% of targets against the Seahawks since Week 13 went to running backs. Swift can take advantage of the matchup and exceed 14.5 receiving yards for the second game in a row and fourth time in the past six.

Where to play: D’Andre Swift More Than 14.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog

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Where To Place Thursday Night Football NFL Prop Bets

The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured below offer more than enough options to satisfy your Thursday night football prop betting needs. As discussed before, always shop around for the best price to maximize your returns! With Thursday Night Football prop betting available through various platforms, and each offering different experiences depending on your location and preferences, there are several options for engaging with TNF props, whether you’re in a state with legal sports betting or looking for alternatives.

Legal sportsbooks for TNF props

Legal sportsbooks provide the most comprehensive TNF prop betting experience with competitive odds and substantial variety. These platforms offer everything from player performance props to game circumstances and are available in states where sports betting has been legalized.

Top legal sportsbooks for Thursday night football props include:

• DraftKings is known for extensive player props and Same Game Parlay options.
• FanDuel features competitive odds and one of the most user-friendly interfaces.
• BetMGM is an official NFL partner offering unique props and strong welcome bonuses
• Caesars provides valuable prop odds and frequent TNF-specific promotions.

DFS Pick’em apps for TNF props

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) pick’em apps offer an alternative approach to prop-style betting. They focus on player stat projections without traditional odds. These platforms operate in more states than conventional sportsbooks, making them accessible to more fans.

Popular DFS pick’em options for Thursday night football include:

• Underdog Fantasy specializes in player prop over/unders with multiplier options.
• PrizePicks offers straightforward entry points with flex play options.
• Sleeper combines social elements with player performance predictions.

What are the most common TNF prop bet types, odds, and win conditions?

Here’s a breakdown of the most popular Thursday night football prop betting options, how they’re typically presented, and what determines a winning wager:

Player props

• Passing yards – Bet on how many total yards the quarterback will throw for during the game. Usually offered as an over/under (eg, over 229.5 yards). You win by correctly picking whether they throw more or fewer yards than the line.
• Rushing yards – Wager on a running back’s total ground yardage in the game. Typically presented as an over/under (eg, under 89.5 yards). You win if the player’s final rushing total matches your prediction of exceeding or falling short of the line.
• Receiving yards – Predict how many yards a receiver will gain on catches. Offered as an over/under line (eg, over 72.5 yards). You win if the player’s final receiving yardage aligns with your over or under selection.
• Anytime touchdown scorer – Bet on whether a specific player will score a touchdown at any point during the game. Presented with yes/no moneyline odds (typically +150 to -200). You win if your selected player crosses the goal line for a TD.
• First touchdown scorer – Wager on which player will score the very first touchdown of the game. Listed with moneyline odds for each player (eg, +450 for a wide receiver). You win only if your chosen player scores the game’s first touchdown.
• Receptions – Bet on the total number of catches a player will make. Structured as an over/under (eg, over 5.5 receptions). You win by correctly predicting whether the player’s catch total exceeds or falls short of the line.

Team/game props

• First scoring play – Predict what type of scoring play will occur first in the game. The prop is offered with moneyline odds for touchdown, field goal, or safety (eg, TD -150). You win if the game’s initial score matches your selection.
• Team total points – Wager on how many points a specific team will score. Presented as an over/under (eg, over 24.5 points). You win if the team’s final score aligns with your prediction of being above or below the line.
• Longest touchdown – Bet on the distance of the longest touchdown scored in the game. Set as an over/under for total yards (eg, over 45.5 yards). You win if the game’s longest touchdown exceeds or falls short of your prediction.
• Total sacks – Predict the combined number of quarterback sacks by both teams. Offered as an over/under (eg, under 4.5 sacks). You win if the final sack count matches your selection of over or under the established line.

What other types of Thursday night football prop bets exist?

Beyond the standard prop bet markets, Thursday night football props offer several niche betting opportunities that can provide additional value and interest. These specialty props often focus on defensive performances, special teams plays, and unique game scenarios.

Player props

• Defensive sack leader – bet on which player will record the most sacks during the game. Typically offered as a moneyline (eg, +350 for an edge rusher). You win if your selected player finishes with more sacks than any other player in the game.
• First interceptions thrown – Wager on which quarterback will throw the game’s first interception. Listed with moneyline odds for each quarterback (eg, +200 for QB1). You win if your chosen quarterback throws the first pick of the game
• Player to score first and last TD – Wager on a single player scoring both the first and last touchdown of the game. Offered with high-risk moneyline odds (eg, +1200). You win only if your selected player achieves both scoring milestones.
• Total quarterback pressures – Predict the combined number of quarterback hurries, hits, and sacks generated by a specific defender. Set as an over/under (eg, over 8.5 pressures). You win if the final pressure count matches your selection.

Team/game props

• Longest field goal – Predict the distance of the longest successfully converted field goal. Offered as an over/under (eg, over 47.5 yards). You win if the game’s longest made field goal exceeds or falls short of the established line.
• Special teams touchdown – Bet on whether any team will score a touchdown on a punt return, kick return, or blocked kick. Presented as a yes/no proposition with odds (eg, Yes +500). You win if any special-teams touchdown occurs during the game.

What factors make Thursday night football unique for prop bettors?

Thursday night football creates unique betting conditions as teams sometimes play on short rest after recent Sunday games. As the week’s sole national spotlight game, TNF features compressed preparation time and accelerated injury reporting. These factors significantly impact player usage patterns and market dynamics. This section explains each distinct TNF factor, helping you develop specialized strategies for Thursday night prop betting.

The impact of short rest and sloppy play

The compressed recovery window between Sunday and Thursday games significantly affects player performance. Athletes have minimal time to heal, leading to reduced explosiveness and compromised execution. This fatigue typically results in offensive inefficiency, like imprecise routes, missed timing, and protection breakdowns.

High-exertion positions like running back and defensive back are particularly affected. Teams often respond by rotating players more frequently, limiting snap counts for starters while creating opportunities for backups. Smart prop bettors adjust by favoring unders on yardage totals and identifying secondary players who could see increased usage. Always monitor practice reports, as limited participation early in the week often signals reduced Thursday roles.

Simplified game plans and backup player roles

The abbreviated preparation window forces coaches to streamline playbooks for Thursday night football. Complex schemes give way to high-percentage plays and simplified execution, creating unique betting opportunities.

Teams typically rely on based personnel and fundamental concepts – quick passes, power runs, and standard defensive alignments. These approaches benefit reliable slot receivers, tight ends as safety valves, and rotational running backs. Prop markets often undervalue these role players while overestimating start production in simplified game plans.

National spotlight and betting line movement

TNF’s standalone status creates significant public betting interest and media attention. As the only NFL action available, TNF attracts disproportionate volume from casual bettors and fantasy enthusiasts.

This recreational money often pushes lines toward popular overs and touchdown props. The spotlight amplifies certain narratives, like revenge games, fantasy darlings, and comeback stories get outsized attention. Smart bettors can find value in contrarian positions, like unders on overhyped players or secondary offensive options overlooked by the public.

Early-week betting and changing value

Thursday night football prop markets open earlier than Sunday games, often appearing shortly after the previous week’s games conclude. These early lines frequently contain vulnerabilities as oddsmakers work with incomplete information about injuries and game plans.

This creates an opportunity window where attentive bettors can find value before lines adjust. The approach requires balance, so act quickly on props with clear value while recognizing significant movement often occurs between Monday’s opening and Thursday’s kickoff. Prioritize players with established roles that aren’t dependent on late injury reports.

Watching the line movement from Monday to Thursday

TNF props lines transform significantly from Monday’s opening to Thursday’s kickoff. These movements reveal valuable information about injuries, sharp money activity, and expected game plans.

Track significant movement patterns, like 5+ yard shifts in totals, half-point changes in reception counts, or substantial odds movement in touchdown markets. Early-week shifts typically indicate sharp action, while late movements usually reflect injury updates. Compare opening and current lines against your projections to identify where value appears or disappears.

This analysis builds pattern recognition skills for spotting predictable movement trends.

What are the best strategies for TNF props? (Timing and bankroll management)

TNF prop betting success requires more than just identifying promising wagers. It demands strategic timing, diligent odds shopping, and disciplined bankroll management. Making bets at suboptimal times or without a structured approach often leads to poor results. Let’s look at four essential strategies to help you navigate the unique TNF prop market more effectively.

When are Thursday night football props released?

Most sportsbooks release TNF props between Monday and Wednesday using a staggered schedule. Primary markets like quarterback passing yards and established running back rushing totals typically appear first, often by Monday evening or Tuesday morning. Secondary markets, including receiver props and defensive stats, follow by Wednesday afternoon.

More volatile markets, such as touchdown scorers and game-specific specials, may not appear until late Wednesday or Thursday morning, once injury reports provide clarity. Platform timing varies significantly, as some sportsbooks post lines earlier than others.

What are the best times to lock in bets?

The optimal timing for TNF prop bets requires balancing early value against later certainty. A strategic approach tailored to different prop types will maximize your advantage.

Early betting (Monday to Tuesday) typically offers softer lines with greater value potential for established players with defined roles. Target quarterback props, workhorse running backs, and defensive standouts with consistent snap counts before public money arrives.

Late betting (Wednesday to Thursday) provides greater confidence through injury reports and practice updates, which are particularly valuable for players with questionable status. A hybrid approach often works best, so bet early on stable situations while waiting on injury-dependent markets.

Shopping for the best odds across sportsbooks

Line shopping is one of the most profitable yet underutilized strategies for Thursday night football prop betting. Comparing odds across multiple platforms before placing bets consistently improves results without requiring additional analysis.

Prop markets frequently show substantial variance between operators, with differences of 3–5 yards on rushing totals or significant odds variations in touchdown markets. Finding a running back line at 69.5 yards versus 64.5 yards elsewhere gives you 5 “free” yards that significantly increase your win probability. Similarly, an anytime touchdown prop at +150 versus +125 represents 20% more profit potential for identical risk.

Manage your bankroll on high-variance TNF props

Thursday night football props carry inherently higher variance than Sunday games due to condensed schedules, elevated injury risks, and unpredictable player usage. Implementing disciplined bankroll management helps navigate this volatility while protecting your capital through inevitable downswings.

Limit individual TNF prop exposure to 1–2% of your bankroll per play. Avoid excessive correlation in your portfolio; stacking quarterback passing yards with his primary receiver’s receptions compounds risk if the passing game struggles.

Be cautious with parlays, reserving them primarily for promotional opportunities with odds boosts or insurance. Remember that TNF represents just one week in a long season, so maintain discipline and focus on the process rather than individual outcomes.

What are some common mistakes to avoid when betting TNF props?

TNF attracts countless casual bettors eager for NFL action before the weekend, creating significant market distortions and rapid line movements. Public money floods popular markets, inflating prices on heavily promoted props and diminishing their value. Understanding these patterns helps you avoid the costly mistakes that hurt recreational bettors’ results.

• Ignoring the short-rest impact on player performance – Short rest decreases offensive efficiency, especially for high-exertion positions like running backs and receivers. Adjust expectations downward for yardage totals and consider defensive props or unders in markets affected by player fatigue.
• Betting too many correlated outcomes – Stacking QB passing yards with receiver props creates dangerous exposure if the passing game struggles on Thursday. Diversify your prop selections across different statistical categories to reduce the impact of single-game variance.
• Chasing steam without understanding the cause – Following significant line movements without knowing why often leads to betting mispriced markets after value disappears. Only follow movement when you understand the catalyst driving the shift.
• Overvaluing recent performance over matchup context – Recency bias pushes bettors toward players coming off strong Sunday showings without considering Thursday-specific factors. Prioritize defensive schemes and historical short-rest performance over last week’s results.
• Neglecting weather impacts on specialized props – Wind, rain, and cold significantly affect passing efficiency and kicking, yet many bettors ignore forecasts. Check game-day weather updates and adjust exposure to weather-sensitive props accordingly.
• Failing to confirm inactive reports before kickoff – Thursday games feature more game-time decisions than typical matchups, affecting both starters and rotation players. Always verify final active/inactive lists 90 minutes before kickoff.
• Betting out of boredom rather than value – Thursday’s standalone status tempts bettors to wager on numerous props simply for entertainment. Maintain discipline and focus only on props with clear analytical advantages.

Conclusion

Thursday night football prop betting offers unique challenges and opportunities for strategic bettors. With disciplined research into short-rest impacts, careful injury monitoring, thorough line shopping, and strict bankroll management, you can find consistent value.

Remember that TNF’s standalone status magnifies both edges and mistakes. Approach each opportunity analytically rather than emotionally to build sustainable success.