Quarterback props are always a fun gamble. It was not a surprise in Week 11 to see Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins as the top-three passing leaders in the NFL. What was a surprise, however, was that No. 4 on the list was Colt McCoy, with 328.
So what surprises are in store for us in Week 12, and which quarterback performances should we wager on?
All odds courtesy of BetPrep updated 10:00 AM Eastern on Nov. 24.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
The Prop: Tagovailoa Passing Yards vs. Carolina Panthers
The Odds: Over 235.5 yards (-115)/Under 235.5 yards (-115)
Most eyes will be on Cam Newton as the Panthers travel to South Florida to take on the Dolphins. But in terms of quarterback props to bet, take a look across the sideline at the other quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa.
He has put up some big numbers recently, with 273 yards against the Jets, 291 against the Falcons, and 329 coming against the Jaguars. But none of those teams would be considered good against the pass, or even mediocre. In yards allowed per pass attempt, all three are ranked in the lower third of the NFL, and the Jags and Jets are 29th and 32nd respectively.
The Panthers on the other hand rank second in the NFL, and only once has a quarterback had a good game against them – Kirk Cousins in Week 6.
Against Carolina, getting Tua to 236 passing yards is a longshot.
Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz
The Prop: Wentz Passing Yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Odds: Over 248.5 yards (-115)/Under 248.5 yards (-115)
The Indianapolis Colts have unlocked the winning formula. It’s two words. Jonathan. Taylor.
Indy finds themselves in the middle of the playoff hunt, and as unbelievable as it sounded three weeks ago, they are not yet out of the AFC South race. But it is clear, Carson Wentz has turned his career around, but he is not the key. It’s riding their stud running back who has emerged at the NFL’s best this season.
Wentz has only gone over 250 passing yards once in six games. The Buccaneers’ defense has been much better against the pass the past six games, only allowing one quarterback to break 250 since Week 5.
Wentz won’t have a bad game, but he won’t hit the over either.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
The Prop: Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Odds: Over 273.5 yards (-114)/Under 273.5 yards (-118)
Since returning from his COVID-19 absence, Aaron Rodgers has looked every bit like the reigning MVP. He threw for 292 yards in Green Bay’s shutout over the Seahawks, and then he threw for 385 yards in the Packers’ shootout loss at Minnesota.
7️⃣5️⃣ yards from @AaronRodgers12 to @MVS__11!
TOUCHDOWN! 🙌 #GBvsMIN | #GoPackGo
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/uZA2PtBNBg
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 21, 2021
He returns home for the game of the week – a showdown with the Rams. L.A. hasn’t been torched much by QBs, but they haven’t faced any great ones since Kyler Murray in Week 4.
The weather is forecast to be nice, the scoreboard should get a workout, and Rodgers is a great candidate quarterback props to go over 300 yards.
