At the midpoint of the 2021 NFL season, the AFC West is one of two divisions in which all four teams are above .500. (The other: the AFC North.)
This could make for a high-stakes, drama-filled December/January, as the Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders battle for division superiority.
Heading into Week 10, Props.com revisits each team’s AFC West odds for capturing the division crown — which might also come with the No. 1 seed (and only bye) in the AFC playoffs.
Odds via BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of 1 p.m. ET Nov. 12.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +140
Circa Sports: +130
DraftKings: +130
FanDuel: +140
TwinSpires: +135
The Chargers and Raiders are awkwardly sharing the West penthouse suite right now, but it’s not a traditional 50/50 agreement.
At the moment, Los Angeles owns the better intra-division record (2-0) and head-to-head tiebreaker advantage (Week 4 victory). And the rivals don’t meet again until Week 18, thus putting pressure on Las Vegas to stay at least within a game of the division lead over the next eight weeks.
Otherwise, the rematch with L.A. could be moot in terms of determining a division champion. (Of course, it also could be moot if the Broncos and/or Chiefs zoom by either or both teams.)
Thanks to the NFL schedule-maker, the Chargers have a golden opportunity to separate themselves from the pack over the next month (which is a big reason why they’re the current division favorite): Over the next five weeks, L.A. faces just one division opponent, that being Denver on the road.
The Broncos are averaging only 18.5 points per game at home; in fact, of the Chargers’ next five foes — Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Denver, Cincinnati, and the Giants — only the Vikings (who come to L.A. on Sunday) rank among the league’s 10 highest-scoring offenses. (Minnesota averages 24.3 points per contest.)
Another fact in L.A.’s favor: It has already pocketed a road victory over the Chiefs, whereas the Raiders and Broncos must visit Kansas City in Weeks 13 and 14, respectively.
Also, from Weeks 14-18, the Chargers won’t have to deal with any weather. They play three home games at domed SoFi Stadium and take trips to Houston (retractable roof) and Las Vegas (dome).
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4 SU/2-7 ATS)
BetMGM: +160
Circa Sports: +190
DraftKings: +160
FanDuel: +175
TwinSpires: +150
In previous reviews of AFC West odds, we reflexively endorsed the Chiefs’ chances of winning the division — and who could blame us for backing a team led by Patrick Mahomes, who gets to throw to the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce?
But now, it’s time for a reality check. For starters …
- Kansas City has scored 20 or fewer points four times in the last five weeks, managing a grand total of 36 points in its last three games. The only time the Chiefs’ offense has exploded since Week 4 was when it put up 31 points at dreadful Washington — and they needed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to reach that total.
- Mahomes is one interception away from matching his combined picks total from 2019 and 2020 (11). Also worth noting: Kansas City’s offensive line has allowed the NFL’s second-fewest sacks (17). So, you can’t blame a lack of pocket time for all of Mahomes’ miscues.
- The Chiefs’ remaining schedule doesn’t have a single “gimme” game — although, on the bright side, the Packers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, and Bills are in the rear-view mirror.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-3 SU/4-4 ATS)
BetMGM: +450
Circa Sports: +485
DraftKings: +550
FanDuel: +450
TwinSpires: +500
There’s a simple rationalization for the Raiders possessing the third-best division odds despite co-leading the West and having the NFL’s sixth-best offense (394.5 total yards per game): It’s all about the schedule.
Of the remaining eight teams on the Raiders’ nine-game docket (counting the Chiefs twice), only Washington (2-6) and Indianapolis (4-5) have sub-.500 records. And the surging Colts (4-2 in their last six) likely will be dangerous come January.
Simply put, the Raiders squandered a golden opportunity in losing 23-16 to the injury-riddled Giants last week (not to mention an inexplicable 20-9 home loss to the Bears in Week 5). Now, Las Vegas is staring at a road gauntlet of Dallas (Thanksgiving Day), Kansas City (Week 14), Cleveland (Week 15), and Indianapolis (Week 17) … along with consecutive home games against the Chiefs (Sunday night) and Bengals, as well as home tilts versus the Broncos and the aforementioned season-finale against the Chargers.
In summation: The Raiders better turn their pirate ship around, pronto.
Denver Broncos (5-4 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +750
Circa Sports: +700
DraftKings: +700
FanDuel: +750
TwinSpires: +800
Here’s proof that Denver is getting no respect from bookmakers, despite currently being embroiled in a five-way tie for the AFC’s final playoff spot:
The Broncos, who are 3-0 against the big-market NFC East, led the vaunted Cowboys 30-0 in the fourth quarter last week (before yielding two garbage-time touchdowns) — the same Cowboys who demolished Philadelphia by 20 points in Week 3. And yet … the Broncos are merely 2.5-point home favorites against the 3-6 Eagles this week.
It’s a total head-scratcher, considering Denver has two potential 1,000-yard tailbacks (Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams), a quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) with a completion rate above 70 percent, four prominent pass-catchers (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant), and a defense that ranks second overall in fewest points allowed (17.0 per game).
Despite all that balance, the best AFC West odds Denver can muster are +700 (Circa/DraftKings). Next year, perhaps the Broncos should petition the NFL to transfer to the NFC East.
