These NFL computer picks were compiled by the BetPrep.com database, focusing on line value when looking at historically similar matchups. For more details on the pick selection, scroll down to the reference section below.
We will track this model throughout the season, gleaning insights along the way.
The model went 1-2 last week, putting the season record at 83-49-1 overall. That’s a solid 62% hit rate across the first 14 weeks of this 2022-23 campaign.
NFL Computer Picks: Week 15
We are only tracking picks with 65% or greater in the similar matchups column. There are 13 picks this week, including notable spreads and totals worth paying attention to, including two picks from the Seahawks-49ers games on Thursday Night Football:
| Pick | Opponent | Similar Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Seahawks +3.5 | vs. 49ers | 82% |
| Seahawks-49ers | Under 43.5 | 68% |
| Ravens +2.5 | at Browns | 97% |
| Ravens-Browns | Over 37 | 85% |
| Dolphins +7.5 | at Bills | 94% |
| Texans +14 | vs. Chiefs | 100% |
| Chiefs-Texans | Under 49.5 | 70% |
| Bears +9 | vs. Eagles | 90% |
| Bears-Eagles | Under 48.5 | 90% |
| Falcons-Saints | Over 43 | 91% |
| Titans-Chargers | Under 47.5 | 80% |
| Giants +4.5 | at Commanders | 88% |
| Giants-Commanders | Over 40.5 | 91 |
Insights For Week 15
You can view last week’s results by visiting the NFL Computer Picks article for Week 14. There is one pick with 100% in the similar matchup column for Week 15:
- Texans +14 vs. Chiefs
On top of that, picks with 80% or higher line value went 6-2 in Week 14. That threshold is now 44-32-1 (57%) on the season. On top of the aforementioned 100% pick, these bets made the cut for Week 15:
- Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers
- Ravens +2.5 at Browns
- Ravens-Browns Over 37
- Dolphins +7.5 at Bills
- Bears +9 vs. Eagles
- Eagles-Bears Under 48.5
- Falcons-Saints Over 43
- Titans-Chargers Under 47.5
- Giants +4.5 at Commanders
- Giants-Commanders Over 40.5
NFL Computer Picks Reference
BetPrep’s NFL computer picks look through historical data to find line value on the spread or total. Essentially, it compares the spread/total with similar matchups over the years and lets you know if the number is higher or lower than a large percentage of those games. This is what the “Similar Matchup” column means in the aforementioned table.
For example, the Chargers are +4 at the Chiefs. BetPrep indicates that teams like the Chargers have a lower spread in 78% of similar matchups based on historical data. Thus, indicating line value for this pick.
You can view the model and poke around in the BetPrep database here.
NFL Computer Picks Results
Season Overall: 83-49-1
Spread: 48-23-1
Totals: 35-26
NFL Computer Picks: Previous Articles
You can browse previous editions of this article below: