The Cardinals are sizable underdogs against a stout run defense. That was a significant consideration for the first prop. Meanwhile, the 49ers are a run-heavy team and commanding favorites, but that doesn’t mean a couple of their pass-catchers can’t shine. So, two overs for San Francisco’s pass-catchers are appealing in an excellent matchup. Let’s run through my top three Cardinals vs. 49ers player props below.
Cardinals vs. 49ers Player Props: Week 10
Here are the three Cardinals vs. 49ers player props I like for Monday Night Football.
James Conner Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (+102)
The Cardinals are a pass-first team at its core. First, in neutral game scripts, Arizona had 33 passes and 16 rushes by non-quarterbacks, all by James Conner, last week. Second, they were also pass-happy when Kyler Murray was healthy. Before last week, they had 149 passes and only 88 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts this year.
And, of course, their neutral game script info says nothing of the negative game script the Cardinals will likely be in most of tonight. When they’re in a deep hole, they’ll have to dig themselves out by airing it out.
Arizona’s offensive line and the matchup are also nightmarish for Conner’s rushing outlook tonight. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards (4.17). In addition, per Football Outsiders, the 49ers are fourth in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). So, let’s take Conner’s prop for under 51.5 rushing yards.
Where to bet: James Conner Under 51.5 Yards | +102 at Caesars Sportsbook
George Kittle Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-145)
Jimmy Garoppolo has an outrageous collection of weapons to use in San Francisco’s passing attack. Unfortunately, that can lead to George Kittle getting lost in the shuffle. He’s in a mouthwatering matchup tonight, though.
According to Football Outsiders, tight ends average the second-most receiving yards per game (66.3) against the Cardinals, significantly higher than the league average (49.4). Kittle’s track record against the Cardinals during Kliff Kingsbury’s three-year tenure has also been outstanding.
Kittle has opposed the Cardinals four times in the previous three years. The stud tight end had 79, 44, 92, and 101 receiving yards against the Red Birds in his five meetings against them, while Kingsbury was the head coach. There’s a risk of the 49ers racing out to a big lead and never needing to air it out. However, Kittle should help them get into a good game script. So, let’s take the over for 43.5 receiving yards in a dreamy matchup.
Where to bet: George Kittle Over 43.5 Receiving Yards | -145 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jauan Jennings Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jauan Jennings is an ancillary pass-catcher in San Francisco’s run-first and stacked offense. It’s not a headline-grabbing role. Nevertheless, the third-year wideout has earned looks when he’s on the field.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he had a 22.2% target rate on 18 routes last week. He’s also earned a target on 20.4% of his routes this season. Jennings has parlayed his modest role into multiple receptions in five consecutive games. Further, he had at least 18 receiving yards in each of those contests.
Finally, the matchup is ideal. Other wideouts (wide receivers not deemed the No. 1 or No. 2 on a team by Football Outsiders) have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards per game (48.0) against the Cardinals this season. Therefore, over 14.5 receiving yards by Jennings is an attractive wager.
Where to bet: Jauan Jennings Over 14.5 Receiving Yards | -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook
