The Packers and Titans jumpstart Week 11 on Thursday Night Football. Tennessee is a run-centric team and facing a dreadful run defense. Meanwhile, Green Bay used their one-two backfield punch to spring an upset last week, but they have an awful matchup for a ground-and-pound approach this week. Let’s use those angles to find some Packers vs. Titans player props for this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Packers vs. Titans Player Props: TNF Week 11
For a full list of Packers vs. Titans player props and odds, check out our dedicated matchup page.
Derrick Henry Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Derrick Henry had a subpar effort last week, rushing for only 53 yards against the Broncos. However, he ran for at least 102 yards in his five previous contests.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, King Henry is a beast, averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game. The bulldozing back’s median outcome for rushing yards this season was 102 in Week 5 against the Commanders.
The context is outstanding for Henry, too. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Titans are eighth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.72). Second, per Football Outsiders, Green Bay is 30th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Running backs have destroyed the Packers.
Per Pro-Football-Reference, running backs have averaged 122.8 rushing yards per game against Green Bay. Tennessee’s offensive tendencies and Green Bay’s opponent’s offensive tendencies are also optimal for Henry rushing for more than 99.5 yards.
According to numberFire, Henry has carried the pigskin 110 times, and Ryan Tannehill has chucked the pigskin 123 times in neutral game scripts in Tannehill’s seven starts in 2022. On the flip side, Green Bay’s opponents have run the ball 176 times with non-quarterbacks and punters and passed only 180 times.
The game’s spread is only three points, and I like the Titans’ odds of springing the upset. As a result, Henry should have a neutral or good game script for most of the contest and have his way with Green Bay’s pathetic run defense.
Where to bet: Derrick Henry Over 99.5 Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Aaron Jones Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Aaron Jones has had two electrifying showings in his last three games, rumbling for 143 yards in Week 8 and 138 in Week 10. However, he handled only nine carries for 25 yards in a cushy matchup against the Lions in Week 9.
Jones has rushed for fewer than 57.5 yards in half of his games this year. His median outcome in 10 games is 56 rushing yards, lower than his yardage prop of 57.5 rushing yards.
However, I’ve buried the lede. The Titans are a nightmare matchup for Green Bay’s running game. Tennesee is first in rush defense DVOA. Running backs have averaged only 66.6 rushing yards per game against the Titans this year.
Jones wouldn’t have much margin for error against the Titans, even if he were a bell-cow running back. However, AJ Dillon is also a threat to his rushing output. Dillon can cut into Jones’s work, and the Packers might be reluctant to ride Jones too hard on a short week.
Finally, teams have been reluctant to run against the Titans. The Titans’ opponents this season have attempted 215 passes and just 96 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. So, I’m taking the under for 57.5 rushing yards by Jones.
Where to bet: Aaron Jones Under 57.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Treylon Burks Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Tennessee’s King Henry-centric offense doesn’t leave much meat on the bone for their pass-catchers. Further, Treylon Burks has been unexciting in his rookie campaign. He opened the year with 55 and 47 receiving yards. Burks has since posted 13, 14, and 24 receiving yards in his other three games (he was on Injured Reserve from Week 5 through Week 9).
Burks has been under 34.5 receiving yards in his past three games, averages only 30.6 receiving yards per game, and has a median outcome of 24 receiving yards this year. But, beyond Burks’ numbers, the context is also outstanding for his under.
First, per Football Outsiders, the Packers are 31st, and the Titans are 32nd in situation-neutral pace. Second, Green Bay has a stingy pass defense. The Packers are eighth in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (179.7). They’ve also bottled up No. 2 receivers, holding them to the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game (36.2). So, let’s wrap up the player props by taking another under.
Where to bet: Treylon Burks Under 34.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook