Penn State has beaten Purdue nine straight times. Can the Nittany Lions make it 10 in a row? Better question: can they cover the 3.5-point spread? We’ll take a deep dive into those inquiries with our Purdue vs. Penn State predictions and best bets below.
Purdue vs. Penn State Predictions
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Purdue vs. Penn State Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3 p.m. ET on Aug. 29.
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 1
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, IN)
- TV: FOX
Purdue vs. Penn State Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for Purdue vs. Penn State:
- Penn State is 9-0 SU in the last 9 meetings with Purdue.
- Under is 5-1 in Penn State’s last 6 conference games.
- Purdue is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 conference games.
- Under is 7-2 in Penn State’s last 9 road games.
- Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 Penn St-Purdue meetings.
- The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 Purdue-Penn St meetings.
- According to DraftKings (as of Mon. afternoon), 82% of betting tickets and 82% of money is on Penn St ATS.
- 68% of tickets are on the Over, but 76% of the money is on the Under.
Purdue Will Air It Out
Purdue will look to build on an impressive 2021 campaign that saw the Boilermakers go 9-4 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten Conference. They’ll waste no time getting into the heat of their season, starting things off with an important home battle against Penn St.
Purdue ranked fifth in the country for passing offense last season. Expect the Boilermakers to keep airing it out with QB Aidan O’Connell back for his senior year. However, Purdue will be without the reigning Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year, David Bell. Making up for his 93 catches, 1,286 yards, and six touchdowns will be crucial for this offense.
It's go-time for #Purdue on Thursday night in Ross-Ade Stadium vs. Penn State.
"Our guys have a chip on their shoulder. They all think they've been overlooked to a certain degree. They're out to prove themselves. … They love playing great opponents."https://t.co/VVElyASVys pic.twitter.com/Q3BtLlZxy2
— Tom Dienhart (@TomDienhart1) August 29, 2022
The Boilermakers lost another important piece in defensive lineman George Karlaftis. He led an improved Purdue defense last season that ranked 34th in scoring, 33rd in passing, and 48th in total yards allowed. Will the defense slide without his presence? Can the Boilermakers consistently stop the run? It helps that nine starters are back on that side of the ball, including three of four defensive linemen.
Can Penn State Run The Ball?
Super senior QB Sean Clifford returns in an effort to help Penn State find a breakthrough. Clifford was inconsistent last season, but he has 33 starts under his belt. That experience could help the Nittany Lions move in the right direction in 2022.
However, Clifford can’t do it all by himself. He’ll need some help from the running game, which was a major issue last year. The Nittany Lions ranked 118th in the country in rushing yards per game at 107.8. Penn State has three new starters on the offensive line, and they’ll need to prove themselves in a hurry to help strike balance in the PSU offense.
Penn State opened 4-point favorite at Purdue earlier this summer
Down to 3.5 as we start the week— mike carmin (@carmin_jc) August 29, 2022
Penn State ranked sixth in the country for scoring defense last season at 17.3 ppg. The passing defense was a strength, ranking 23rd in the country at 199.8 pass yards per game allowed. The Nittany Lions will need to recreate that form against a Purdue team that loves to sling the ball around the field.
Purdue vs. Penn State Predictions
This is an intriguing matchup for the first game of the year. Penn State has the better roster from top to bottom, but laying 3.5 points on the road to a dangerous Purdue passing attack is a tough bet to place.
Instead, I’m looking at the total. If you look at the trends section above, all signs point to the Under. These teams are 9-2-1 to the Under in the last 12 meetings. PSU is 7-2 to the Under in its last 9 road games while going 5-1 to the Under in its last 6 conference games.
Penn State’s pass defense should slow down this high-octane Purdue passing attack. The absence of playmaker WR David Bell could limit the Boilermakers as well. Penn State is an “Under team” who will also be operating without their best receiver from last season (Jahan Dotson 91 rec, 1,182 yds, 12 TD).
Let’s roll with Under 54.5 total points here.
Pick: Under 54.5 total points | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More College Football Week 1 Picks
- Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Predictions: Thu 9/1
- TCU vs. Colorado Predictions: Fri 9/2
- Illinois vs. Indiana Predictions: Fri 9/2
- Saturday NCAAF Week 1 Picks coming soon!
