We have a matchup of the two bottom teams from the American League East. This will be the rubber match between these teams, and we’ll offer a Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction while taking a look at the odds for this Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
Take note that this is the MLB Little League Classic played at Williamsport, PA. That will certainly factor into our prediction as well.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -110 | -1.5 (+143) | O 8.5 (-105) |
| Orioles | -110 | +1.5 (-170) | U 8.5 (-115) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11 a.m. ET on Aug. 21.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Predictions
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Will Pivetta’s Struggles Continue?
Nick Pivetta will get the start in this game, and 2022 has been a rough season for the veteran. He’s been knocked around all year as his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage are below the tenth percentile.
He’s noticeably lost some zip to his fastball and some movement on his curveball. Last season that curve was very effective as hitters were batting .196 with a .290 SLG off the pitch, those numbers are now .293 and, .433 respectively.
Because of that, Pivetta has allowed three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. He’s fresh off a solid outing against Pittsburgh, but that’s more of an outlier than anything. The Pirates’ offense is rough at the moment.
The Sox Are Way In The Red
As the team comes into tonight below .500, it’s looking like a lost year for them.
It’s been a roller coaster ride of a season as they did not get off to a great start going 23-27, with several key members of their offense struggling. Going 20-9 in June had them right back in the playoff race, and they had a slight cushion in the Wild Card. However, the bottom dropped out in July, going 8-19 and falling out of a playoff spot.
With several teams to climb over, including the Orioles, they will likely miss out on October baseball.
Kremer Is Rising To The Top
It’s been a complete turnaround for Dean Kremer in 2022. Going 0-7 with a 7.55 ERA last season had to be rough on him, but whatever he did from then to now has worked as he’s 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA.
A couple of noticeable changes was that he’s starting to mix in the cutter a little more this season, going from 21% of his pitches last year to 31%. He’s throwing all his pitches more effectively as the fastball and cutter have seen a bump in speed this season, and the cutter is noticeably getting more movement.
All of this has led to being much more effective overall with his other pitches as his chase rate has seen a significant boost going from being in the one percentile last season to the 80th this year.
Is Baltimore Finally Back?
The rebuilding of the Orioles took some time, but this team could be very close to becoming a future contender.
They’ve had a fantastic second half of the season, going 41-27 since June 1, and are now just a game and a half out of the Wild Card spot. Enormous credit goes to Kremer and this pitching staff, as they’re 11th with a 3.78 ERA since June, and their bullpen is third (3.03).
Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction
Pivetta and Kremer have not had particularly good starts against these teams this season. We saw a couple of high-scoring games in the series, especially the 15-10 offensive onslaught on Friday.
Kremer is the better pitcher this season, he’s a bit of a rough patch with a 5.23 ERA in his last six starts, which includes allowing four earned against the Red Sox a couple of weeks ago. I’m taking the Over, as we’ve seen these teams smash that total this weekend.
Also, in four Little League Classic contests, at least one team has scored six runs in all but one game. That gives us some insight into how this ballpark plays. Take the Over.
The Pick: Over 8.5 | -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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