The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Friday, August 5
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.96 ERA indicates
Berrios has struggled quite a bit through 21 starts. He’s posted an 8-4 record with a 4.96 ERA through 114.1 innings. His 3.95 xFIP and .310 BABIP suggest he’s due for positive regression, though.
Berrios hasn’t been good on the road, but his 7.15 ERA doesn’t quite represent the truth. He owns a 4.62 xFIP through 50.1 road innings. This is over 2.5 runs better than his ERA, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts finding more success on the road.
Berrios gets an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Twins. They rank 23rd in the MLB in team wOBA (.298) over the last 14 days. With that being said, they’re a significantly better offense at home.
Bottom Line: Berrios has gotten extremely unlucky this season, specifically on the road. The Twins feature a great home offense, but they’re in a slump, and I expect Berrios to find some success tonight.
German Marquez: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.29 ERA suggests
Marquez continues to struggle for the Colorado Rockies. He owns a 6-9 record with a 5.29 ERA through 20 starts in 2022. His 3.95 xFIP suggests he’s due for plenty of positive regression as he continues to throw innings.
Marquez is coming off of a bad game, but he’s been finding that positive regression in recent starts. He’s recorded a 4.32 or better xFIP in 5 consecutive starts, and he’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 3 of those starts.
The right-hander gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They’ve been playing better in recent games, although they’ve been an average offense over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: This isn’t an ideal matchup for Marquez, but it also isn’t one that I’d shy away from. He’ll be throwing in Arizona as well, and this is a matchup the right-hander can find success in once again.
Dakota Hudson: St. Louis Cardinals
Matchup: New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals | 8:15 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.10 ERA suggests
Hudson hasn’t enjoyed the best season in the MLB, but he has found some success. He owns a 6-6 record with a 4.10 ERA through 19 starts. His 4.89 xFIP suggests he isn’t throwing all that well, though.
Hudson has been struggling in recent games as well. He’s recorded a 4.50 xFIP or worse in 7 of his last 8 starts. Over that span, he has games with 6.45, 6.98, and 5.64 xFIPs. He has also sat over 5.00 more often than not.
Hudson gets a terrible matchup against the New York Yankees tonight. He’ll benefit from throwing in St. Louis, but the Yankees are an offense that can find elite success in any stadium at this point.
Bottom Line: Hudson hasn’t been great, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be even worse. He gets a terrible matchup tonight, and New York should find plenty of offensive success in this game.
