The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Tuesday, July 5
Michael Kopech: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.78 ERA indicates
Kopech has looked outstanding from his baseline stats this season. He owns a 2-5 record with a 2.78 ERA through 68 innings. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 4.75 xFIP and a .199 BABIP this season.
Kopech has seen some regression in recent games, but it still hasn’t been even close to enough. He’s posted an xFIP of 4.49 or worse in 5 of his last 6 starts. He struggled with a 6.68 xFIP against the Baltimore Orioles only two games ago.
Kopech gets an iffy matchup tonight. The Minnesota Twins have performed well offensively at times this season, but they are drastically better at home than on the road. Minnesota ranks as a relatively average offense on the road against right-handed pitching.
Bottom Line: Kopech’s advanced stats show he isn’t throwing as well as his 2.78 ERA indicates. It’s amazing that he’s been able to maintain that ERA for as long as he has. I’m expecting him to continue to regress today.
Chris Archer: Minnesota Twins
Matchup: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox | 8:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.08 ERA suggests
Archer is in a similar position to Kopech. He boasts a 2-3 record with a 3.08 ERA through 15 starts. His 4.99 xFIP and .224 BABIP suggest he’s due for quite a bit of regression as the season continues.
Archer has been somewhat boom or bust on a game-by-game basis this season. He posted 8.11 and 2.61 xFIPs over his last two starts. Overall, he’s posted an xFIP north of 4.00 in 13 of his 15 starts this season, although he’s only posted an ERA over 4.00 in 6 of those 15 starts.
Archer quietly gets a solid matchup tonight. The Chicago White Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching throughout the season. They rank 28th in the MLB in OPS (.658) against righties.
Bottom Line: The matchup is good enough that Archer could avoid regression in this game. With that being said, his numbers are so drastic that I wouldn’t be shocked if he struggles early and often, even against Chicago.
Alex Wood: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.03 ERA suggests
Wood has struggled through 15 starts in 2022. He owns a 5-7 record with a 5.03 ERA through 73.1 innings. With that being said, he also boasts a 3.36 xFIP with a ridiculous .340 BABIP, suggesting he’ll continue to get better as the season progresses.
Wood’s seen mixed results with his advanced metrics in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP below 2.50 in 3 of his last 5 starts. He recorded 17.58 and 5.25 xFIPs in the other two games, though. Overall, he’s been throwing at an extremely high level on a game-by-game basis, and the results should start to follow.
Wood gets an interesting matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ve been struggling in recent games, ranking 26th in the MLB in OPS (.665) against left-handed pitching. The only major concern here is that the game will be played in Arizona.
Bottom Line: Wood’s due for plenty of positive regression, and this is a matchup he should be able to take advantage of. I’m expecting that positive regression to start tonight.
