When it comes to baseball prop bets, strikeout props are one of the most popular options. While they aren’t always as fun as home run props or NRFI prop bets, MLB strikeout props usually have more predictive value.
Because of that, we can dig into the analytics to hunt for betting value. That’s exactly what we intend to do within this article.
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Best MLB Strikeout Props Today: Sunday, Mar. 30
Justin Bales runs through his best strikeout props and DFS pick’em plays each day of the MLB season.
Taj Bradley Higher Than 6.5 Strikeouts
Bradley is an outstanding strikeout option for the Tampa Bay Rays. He owns a 27.3% strikeout rate across 48 career games (46 starts). He also boasts an inspiring 10.5 K/9 through 242.2 innings.
Bradley owns ridiculous career splits at this point, although it’s only been two seasons. His strikeout rate jumps to 29.7% at home compared to only 24.8% on the road. He also owns a 29.8% strikeout rate against left-handed batters compared to 24.5% against righties.
Bradley gets an elite matchup against the Colorado Rockies today. They struck out at the third-highest rate (30.9%) against right-handed pitching in Spring Training. The Rockies also gave up 8 strikeouts to Ryan Pepiot and 7 to Zack Littell.
Bradley wasn’t as successful in terms of strikeouts in Spring Training, but I’m not overly concerned with that. His career data shows he’s a great strikeout pitcher, and I’m trusting that to continue this season.
More importantly, he threw 101 pitches in his final Spring Training start. I’m not entirely sure he’ll get to the 100-pitch mark in this game, but it shows he’s likely to throw 85+ pitches, which should be enough to beat this number. There’s upside for more as well.
Where to Play: Taj Bradley higher than 6.5 strikeouts | Underdog
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Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Picks
Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts
Not everyone ages gracefully, with a slow decline. The cliff can come fast and be unkind to some players. Unfortunately, last year’s data suggests that Kevin Gausman will fall into the second camp of players who crash instead of gradually declining.
In 2023, in 31 starts spanning 185.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K%, 33.0 O-Swing%, 84.4 Z-Contact%, 12.9 SwStr%, and 29.6 CSW%. Sadly, Gausman’s numbers cratered. In 2024, in 31 starts spanning 181.0 innings, Gausman had a 3.83 ERA, 4.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 21.4 K%, 29.8 O-Swing%, 86.6 Z-Contact%, 10.5 SwStr%, and 25.8 CSW%.
Gausman’s 3.83 ERA was a fluke, evidenced by his ERA estimators. Furthermore, his strikeout rate nosedived with a fall in O-Swing%, an uptick in Z-Contact%, and a fall in SwStr% and CSW%.
Predictably, Gausman’s stuff wasn’t as potent. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.7 MPH in 2023 to 93.9 MPH in 2024. In addition, per FanGraphs, he had 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+, and 107 Pitching+ in 2023 and 97, 104, and 102 in 2024.
A pitch-by-pitch look at Gausman’s fall was even more alarming. In 2023, he had a 41.0 O-Swing% and 21.3 SwStr% on his splitter versus 37.2% and 16.0% in 2024. Gausman also had a 16.3 O-Swing% and 12.4 SwStr% on his slider in 2023 and 15.1% and 8.8% in 2024. Batters didn’t chase or swing and miss as often against Gausman’s putaway pitches, which might have resulted from a lack of fear of his diminished heater. My money is on a 34-year-old hurler’s inability to recapture his electrifying stuff, leading to fewer than 176.5 strikeouts for Gausman in 2025.
Where to play: Kevin Gausman Less Than 176.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts
Pablo Lopez was at the polar opposite end of the luck spectrum than Gausman in 2024. While Toronto’s hurler was extremely fortunate, Lopez couldn’t catch a break. In 32 starts spanning 185.1 innings in 2024, Lopez had a 4.08 ERA, 3.67 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.46 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.6 K%, 12.9 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 113 Location+, and 107 Pitching+. No matter your preferred ERA estimator, Lopez’s ERA estimators were all considerably better than his 4.08 ERA last season.
Lopez’s ERA should regress to under 4.00 this season. Even in an unlucky season, Lopez had a knack for piling up punchouts. He had 198 with 9.62 K/9 in 2024. Lopez was even more impressive in his first season with the Twins in 2023.
In 2023, he had 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings, a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 10.86 K/9, 234 strikeouts, 14.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 114 Location+, and 113 Pitching+. Lopez would smash his strikeouts prop if he reverted to his 2023 form. Yet, even a repeat of his unlucky 2024 would result in more than 186.5 strikeouts.
The projection models uniformly expect Lopez to settle in between his 2023 and 2024 numbers. Moreover, they almost unanimously projected Lopez to have over 186.5 strikeouts this year. Lopez is projected to strike out 201, 203, 182, 197, 196, 194, 199, and 199 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, ZiPS Depth Charts, ATC, The BAT, OOPSY, and the Zeile Consensus. Only ZiPS projects him to have under 186.5 strikeouts, and they get him to 197 with the aid of the FanGraphs Depth Charts playing time projection.
Where to play: Pablo Lopez More Than 186.5 Strikeouts | Underdog
Check out our guide to the best DFS sites, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
Best MLB DFS Pick’Em Sites
We love the MLB DFS pick’em projections available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog and Sleeper. They offer a very similar experience to player props.
You’ll often find a lot of value and strong payouts available at legal DFS sites. These apps are also available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
Best Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props & Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your MLB player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NBA player props.
You can’t go wrong with BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if these sportsbooks are legal in your state:
Sweepstakes Sportsbooks For MLB Strikeout Props
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