The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check around the sportsbook landscape, shopping for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
We opened with the NFC East. Now, the attention is focused squarely on the NFC North. There’s a commanding favorite to win the NFC North, followed by a distant second and rounded out by a pair of longshots.
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, FanDuel Sportsbook has the most favorable odds for my favorite pick to win the division. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you’re leaning in a different direction for the NFC North winner.
NFC North Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | -190 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +265 |
| Detroit Lions | +1000 |
| Chicago Bears | +1400 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 5.
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Green Bay Packers Odds To Win NFC North: -190
The Packers have dominated the NFC North. They’ve won the division all three years of head coach Matt LaFleur’s tenure. In addition, Aaron Rodgers has won consecutive MVP awards.
But, of course, their excellence extended beyond their decorated quarterback. Green Bay captured the NFC’s No. 1 seed, tying for the best record (13-4) in the NFL, holding the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers were the only team in the NFC North with a positive point differential (79 points). Interestingly, their point differential was only 10th best.
So, their record was probably quite lucky. In addition, they had Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) seventh-best overall grade and were eighth in Football Outsider’s (FO) Total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and Weighted DVOA. So, again, their NFL-best record was lucky.
Now, they must adjust to life without superstar wide receiver Davante Adams. Green Bay traded their former No. 1 receiver to the Raiders, and inconsistent field-stretcher Marquez Valdes-Scantling left as a free agent. Perplexingly, they took a buffet approach to replace them, valuing quantity over quality. Their biggest free agent acquisition was Sammy Watkins. Further, they used their two first-round picks on defense, traded up in the second round for Christian Watson, and threw day-three darts at Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure.
Maybe they’ll strike gold at wideout, but there are valid questions about the chemistry with Rodgers and the immediate impact any of their acquisitions will make. Also, they could pivot to running the ball more, leaning heavily on their one-two punch of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Regardless, there are chinks in the armor that make Green Bay’s betting odds a bit steep.
So, there’s an appeal in betting the Packers +250 to finish second at DraftKings Sportsbook in their division specials section.
Minnesota Vikings Odds To Win NFC North: +265
The Vikings are a wild card this year with overturn in the front office and coaching staff. They’re also the only other team sportsbooks suggest has a somewhat reasonable chance to win the division, as the two remaining teams have +100 and +1400 odds.
In the offseason, the Vikings hired Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as their GM and Kevin O’Connell as the head coach. O’Connell will provide a breath of fresh air from dinosaur and defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. Minnesota’s new head coach was the offensive coordinator in Washington in 2019 and with the Rams in 2020-2021. Theoretically, he should provide a spark to an offense with legitimate above-average-to-superstar players such as Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen.
Sadly, Thielen played only 13 games last year. The Vikings will also get the young tight end, Irv Smith, back from a lost season recovering from knee surgery. Minnesota has the pieces to build on their negative-one-point differential. Moreover, their 15th total PFF grade, 16th Total DVOA, and 19th Weighted DVOA aren’t terrible starting points to improve upon. Thus, if the new coaching staff gives them a shot in the arm, they could push the retooling Packers for the division.
Detroit Lions Odds To Win NFC North: +1000
The Lions were projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL last year, and they essentially met expectations. They were 3-13-1 with a -142 point differential which was the sixth-worst mark. The Lions were also 29th in total PFF grade, Total DVOA, and Weighted DVOA.
Yes, they were scrappy and competitive in some games. Regardless, they’re running it back with Jared Goff, seemingly setting the stage for selecting their franchise quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft.
In fairness, Detroit should be better in the second year under head coach Dan Campbell. They should enjoy addition by subtraction, dumping offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, and replacing him with Ben Johnson. This is Johnson’s first go-round as an OC, but Lynn has a track record of ineptitude.
Detroit also added blue-chip talent in the draft, picking edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson with the second pick and trading up to pop speedy wideout, Jameson Williams, at the 12th pick. They had one more top-50 pick, selecting edge Josh Paschal at 46. Thus, they have an influx of young talent.
The Lions could exceed expectations and pull a 2021 Eagles, clawing their way to a playoff berth. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Most importantly, they’re not a legitimate threat for the NFC North title.
Chicago Bears Odds To Win NFC North: +1400
Like the Vikings, the Bears have shaken up their front office and coaching staff. They’ve replaced GM Ryan Pace with Ryan Poles and swapped out head coach Matt Nagy with Matt Eberflus. But, sadly, unlike the Vikings, they don’t have the same core talent on their roster.
In addition, their offseason was lacking flash. They didn’t have the cap space to make splashes in free agency, didn’t have a first-round pick, had only two top-50 picks (39 and 48), and had just one more selection in the top 100 (71). Thus, they didn’t have the resources to improve their roster to the same extent as the Lions.
So, while Chicago’s -96 point differential, 25th overall PFF grade, 24th Total DVOA, and 22nd Weighted DVOA were better than Detroit’s marks in 2021, it’s more difficult to envision them taking a sizable leap.
The only bull case for the Bears somehow surprising bettors and onlookers is a rapid development from second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Still, Chicago did little to provide Fields with a supporting cast to help him improve. As a result, the Bears are a good bet to finish in the NFC North basement. So, betting on the Bears +130 to finish in fourth at DraftKings Sportsbook is intriguing for anyone with a bankroll large enough to tie up funds on just a +130 bet.
NFC North Predictions & Best Bet
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (+265 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I teased my preference for the best bet in the division in the Green Bay and Minnesota write-ups.
The Packers are rightfully the favorites to win the division, led by the two-time reigning NFL MVP. However, they overperformed their underlying metrics last year, and the Vikings have a talented core with meaningful changes on the coaching staff that could lead to a division crown. The gap in betting odds is too large, with the Packers poised to fall back to the pack and the Vikings seemingly on the rise.
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More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: