The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors boast plenty of offensive firepower, but they also have the defensive prowess to stymie their opponents. That’s an important consideration for Mavericks vs Warriors props.
NBA prop betting is all about trying to figure out how the teams will match up against each other, and whether that means certain players are likely to exceed or fail to meet their usual expectations established throughout the season.
Props.com looks at four Mavericks vs Warriors props for Wednesday’s Game 1 of the Western Conference finals.
Odds via DraftKings as of 12:30 p.m. ET on May 18.
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Mavericks vs Warriors Player Props
Golden State Warriors: PF Draymond Green
The prop: 7.5 points
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
Admittedly, the numbers don’t pop for this play. But the time could be right to back Green making a mark on the scoreboard. Green scored 14 points in the clincher against Memphis, though that was the only game in that series in which he topped 7.5 points. He hit double digits in three of the five games in the first-round series against Denver.
The way Green matches up with the Mavericks is also a bit of a mystery. He missed the final three Warriors-Mavs meetings in the regular season and scored only two points in his lone game against Dallas on Jan. 5 That was Green’s last game before he missed more than two months with a calf injury.
But Green thrives on emotion. With the Mavericks often employing a small-ball lineup, Green should have some openings to get to the basket and fire up the crowd. Take him Over 7.5 points.
Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic
The prop: 7.5 assists
The odds: Over -145/Under +110
Before Game 1, bettors have to do some guesswork as to how the teams will match up with each other. Doncic has emerged as one of the best players in the league, with his equally elite ability to score or pass to open shooters.
With Green, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and even rookie Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State has the bodies to try to match up with Doncic and focus on cutting off his passing lanes to the Mavericks’ shooters on the perimeter.
If that’s the case, Under 7.5 assists for Doncic looks like a nice play at +110. If the Warriors instead want to double-team Doncic, then this ticket probably won’t work out. That’s why they call it gambling.
Golden State Warriors: SG Klay Thompson
The prop: 3.5 made 3-pointers
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Thompson found his stroke in the clincher against Memphis, making 8 of 14 3-pointers. He made more than 3.5 triples only one other time in the series, but made five or more in three of the five games against Denver.
Thompson played in only two of the Warriors’ games against Dallas this season, hitting two and three 3-pointers, respectively. But he logged fewer than 30 minutes in each, during the early part of his comeback from a series of injuries over the past two-plus years.
Thompson has played more than 30 minutes in all but two of Golden State’s playoff games and hit 40 minutes in three of them. He should have ample opportunity to get shots up against Dallas, and that’s all you can ask for.
Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson
The prop: 18.5 points
The odds: Over 125/Under +100
If the Warriors employ the defensive strategy outlined above regarding Doncic, then Dallas’ perimeter players will see less action than normal.
This prop actually opened at Under 19.5 points, and bettors knocked it down to 18.5. But Brunson went Under 18.5 points in four of the seven games against Phoenix, and this seems like a trend that should continue Wednesday. So even though the value of a full point is lost, the Under is still worth a look.
Most Popular Props
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings said these were the most heavily bet props for Game 1:
- Doncic Over 33.5 points (-125)
- Stephen Curry Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (-150)
- Doncic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (-125)
- Green Under 7.5 points (+100)
- Thompson Under 21.5 points (-125)
