Each week, the Props crew takes a look at the upcoming NASCAR slate from a props perspective. Further below you’ll also find some key NASCAR DFS and betting advice that may help you become a sharper NASCAR player.
Which drivers should we be targeting with our NASCAR picks each week, and why? Find out below.
Best NASCAR Props Today – Weekly Picks & Analysis
Hunting for top AdventHealth 400 prop bets? Our Props team has locked in their favorite NASCAR prop picks for Sunday’s race.
Let’s break down the best value plays on the board ahead of race day at Kansas Speedway.
William Byron Top 5 Finish
Winning the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway demands a blend of strategic acumen, car performance, and driver skill tailored to the track’s unique characteristics. Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with progressive banking ranging from 17 to 20 degrees in the turns, 9 to 11 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch.
This configuration allows for multiple racing lines, promoting side-by-side competition and frequent lead changes. Success at Kansas often hinges on a team’s ability to adapt to changing track conditions, manage tire wear effectively, and execute precise pit strategies.
The track’s layout rewards drivers who can maintain high speeds through the corners while preserving their equipment for late-race challenges.
The 2024 AdventHealth 400, which was held on May 5, 2024, featured the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history, as Kyle Larson edged out Chris Buescher by just 0.001 seconds—roughly one inch—after a dramatic overtime restart. The finish underscored the importance of positioning and timing in the race’s final laps.
The race, delayed by rain, came down to a two-lap shootout following a late caution caused by Kyle Busch. Buescher grabbed the lead, but Larson, charging on the high side, made contact twice with Buescher in the final corners before narrowly crossing the line first. Initially, timing screens incorrectly showed Buescher as the winner, but NASCAR’s official review confirmed Larson’s victory, surpassing the previous record for closest finish set in 2003.
The 2024 AdventHealth 400 showed exactly why Larson is one of the most skilled and composed drivers in the field. Larson proved he can stay calm under maximum pressure and execute with perfection when every inch counts. His ability to control high-speed situations, run multiple lines with precision, and close races in the clutch makes him the benchmark at Kansas.
That combination of mental toughness, elite car control, and past success at this track is exactly why he’s the favorite heading into the 2025 AdventHealth 400.
That said, keep an eye on William Byron, he’s quietly built one of the most consistent and effective resumes at Kansas in recent seasons, particularly on high-speed intermediates. He nearly won here last fall, finishing 2nd in one of his sharpest efforts of the year. That run wasn’t a fluke—Byron has ranked as one of the premier performers on 1.5-mile tracks since the start of 2024.
In fact, Byron posted the best average finish (7.8) and the top Total Speed Ranking on high-speed 1.5-milers in 2024, showcasing his ability to combine raw speed with race execution. He’s developed into a driver who can win through aggression or patience—capable of managing tires, adjusting to balance changes, and attacking on restarts when it matters most.
The No. 24 team consistently brings speed to Kansas, and Byron’s comfort running multiple grooves makes him especially dangerous late in the race. Don’t be surprised if he’s one of the few drivers who can go toe-to-toe with Larson over the long haul. I like his chances to have a top 5 finish.
Pick: William Byron Top 5 Finish
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NASCAR Props Tips and Strategy
Betting on NASCAR has expanded far beyond picking a race winner. Prop bets — wagers on specific outcomes within a race — have become a favorite for serious bettors who want to dig deeper into the data and find more consistent edges.
Whether you’re betting on finishing positions, head-to-head matchups, stage winners, or manufacturer props, understanding the right stats and strategy can turn casual wagers into calculated plays.
Here’s a complete guide to improving as a NASCAR props bettor.
What Are NASCAR Prop Bets?
Prop bets in NASCAR focus on performance-based outcomes for drivers or manufacturers, rather than the overall winner. Common NASCAR prop markets include:
- Top 3 / Top 5 / Top 10 Finishes
- Head-to-Head Matchups
- Group Matchups (Speed Lanes)
- Stage Winners
- Winning Manufacturer
- Over/Under Finishing Position
- Race Specials (e.g. Most Laps Led, Number of Cautions)
Books offer different variations depending on the event’s size. Marquee races like the Daytona 500 typically offer a wider range of props.
Track-Specific Performance Is Key
Not all NASCAR tracks are created equal — and neither are drivers. Some racers consistently thrive on superspeedways, while others dominate road courses or short tracks.
Track types to know:
- Superspeedways: Daytona, Talladega (drafting, chaos-prone)
- Intermediate Ovals: Charlotte, Kansas (aerodynamic efficiency)
- Short Tracks: Bristol, Martinsville (braking, aggression)
- Road Courses: Circuit of The Americas, Sonoma (technical driving, pit precision)
When betting props, identify how each driver has historically performed on the track type in question. A driver who underperforms on short tracks isn’t a good Top 5 bet at Bristol, even if they’re elite elsewhere.
Practice and Qualifying Data Matter
Practice speeds and qualifying positions can be extremely predictive for props. If a driver is consistently fast in practice and earns a favorable qualifying spot, it’s a strong signal for props like:
- Top 10 finish
- Head-to-head matchups
- Stage winner (especially for Stage 1 or 2)
However, remember that some drivers prioritize race-day setup over qualifying speed. Know your team tendencies.
Manufacturer Props: Don’t Overlook the Car
In Cup Series races, three manufacturers compete: Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. Certain tracks favor specific makes based on aero packages and horsepower setups.
When betting winning manufacturer props:
- Look at which teams are driving each brand.
- Note recent manufacturer trends on similar tracks.
- Check qualifying balance — if 7 of the top 10 starters drive Chevrolets, there’s likely value.
Head-to-Head and Group Matchups: Margin of Error
These props are often where sharp bettors thrive.
Tips for success:
- Use average finish over the last 5-10 races on similar track types.
- Monitor qualifying — a poor start for one driver in the matchup often shifts value significantly.
- Watch for team dynamics: teammates may work together or avoid racing each other too hard, which can impact aggressive passes.
Group matchups (speed lanes) work similarly, but with three or more drivers. You’re picking the best finisher among the group.
Momentum and Form
Current form matters. Drivers on a run of Top 5s or clean races are more reliable bets to continue performing. A hot pit crew and consistent setup choices often carry from week to week.
For example, a driver who has rattled off three straight Top 10s on intermediate tracks is likely in rhythm — ideal for Top 10 props or group matchup wins.
Pit Crews, Team Strategy, and Reliability
Every second counts in NASCAR. Pit crew efficiency, clean stops, and smart crew chief decisions can decide head-to-head props and stage bets.
Consider:
- Average pit stop time (many teams post these stats weekly)
- Recent pit road mistakes (penalties, uncontrolled tires)
- Mechanical reliability — some teams suffer frequent DNFs
Drivers with poor pit crews are risky prop bets, especially when backing them in tight matchups or exact finish range props.
Caution Counts, Race Chaos, and Risk Tolerance
Some tracks are prone to mayhem. Superspeedways like Talladega or Daytona create chaos through pack racing and frequent crashes. This can ruin even the safest prop bets and boost longshots.
In chaotic races:
- Favor underdog group matchup winners
- Avoid aggressive Top 3 bets on inconsistent drivers
- Target head-to-head matchups where one driver has strong survival skills
In cleaner races (like Phoenix or Michigan), statistical averages hold up better, making Top 10 or Top 5 props more stable.
Weather, Track Conditions, and In-Race Adjustments
Rain delays, hot track temps, and rubber build-up can dramatically alter car behavior. Some drivers excel on slick tracks; others fade.
Keep an eye on:
- Temperature and humidity
- Rain in the forecast (shortened races impact prop payouts)
- In-race adjustments — watch how cars respond mid-race before live betting props
Pick Your Spots, Not Every Prop
The prop market rewards precision, not volume. You don’t need to bet every matchup or every Top 10 line.
Your best approach:
- Specialize in one or two markets (e.g., head-to-heads or manufacturer props)
- Track your bets and ROI per prop type
- Lean on a blend of tape, stats, and real-time information (practice speed, pit crew stats, team changes)
Over time, consistent attention to details like track type, form, and qualifying speed will separate you from the casual prop bettor. NASCAR props reward the disciplined and informed — so build your process and trust the data.
