Looking for all the best Thursday Night Football props? You have come to the right place. Every week, we ask our analysts to sift through all the best daily fantasy sports sites to find you their best TNF player props for every week of the NFL season.
Make sure to check back weekly as this page will be updated a few days prior to each week’s matchup so you can get your bets in early to grab the most value.
So let’s dive into our two best plays for this Week 11 matchup.
Thursday Night Football Props: Week 12 NFL Picks
Josh Shepardson breaks down his top TNF picks for this week.
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Jameis Winston More Than 32.5 Pass Attempts (1.67x)
Jameis Winston is slinging it for the Browns. In three starts this year, he’s attempted 41, 46, and 46 passes in a win, loss, and loss. It doesn’t matter to head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey if the Browns are winning or losing; they love to air it out.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, since Week 8, the Browns have had the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%). For the entire season, which includes Deshaun Watson’s comically inept starts, Cleveland is tied for second in situation-neutral pass rate (61%).
Cleveland’s pass-happy tendencies aren’t a recent development, either. In Joe Flacco’s starts from Week 13 through Week 17, the Browns had the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%). They also had a 67% situation-neutral pass rate in their Wild Card Round loss to the Texans last season.
The Browns will also likely be in a negative game script this week, forcing them to chuck it. Cleveland is a 3.5-point underdog at home against the visiting Steelers. Winston is more than happy to air it out. He’s averaged 44.3 pass attempts per game, with a median of 46 in his three starts. Even if Winston dips from his average and median against Pittsburgh’s talented run-funnel defense, he has ample room to regress while still surpassing 32.5 pass attempts. His “higher” choice at Sleeper is justifiably juiced, but it’s worthwhile chalk to eat.
Where to play: Jameis Winston More Than 32.5 Pass Attempts | 1.67x at Sleeper Fantasy
Cedric Tillman More Than 41.5 Receiving Yards (1.69x)
Cedric Tillman has emerged without Amari Cooper. The Browns traded Cooper to the Bills, and the second-year wideout has stepped up in his absence. Tillman had 12 targets, eight receptions, and 81 receiving yards in the first game without Cooper. Deshaun Watson started the game before suffering a season-ending injury. He was relieved by both Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jameis Winston. It wasn’t an ideal environment.
Tillman has continued to play well since Winston took the reigns as the starting quarterback. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Winston’s three starts since Week 8, Tillman has had an 89.3% route participation rate, 14.3-yard average depth of target, 30.0% air-yard share, 20.1% target share, 0.20 targets per route run, 23.8% first-read percentage, 16 receptions (5.3 per game), 221 receiving yards (73.7 per game), and 1.65 yards per route run.
In Tillman’s last four games, he’s had 81, 99, 75, and 47 receiving yards. He had a median of 78 in those games. Moreover, Tillman has surpassed 41.5 receiving yards in four straight games. Tillman only needs a few catches to clear the low bar of 41.5 receiving yards because of his deep aDOT.
The Steelers aren’t a nightmare matchup for him. According to Pro Football Reference, Pittsburgh has allowed the 15th-most receiving yards per game (147.9) to wide receivers this season. So, the Steelers have allowed enough receiving yards per game to wideouts for Tillman to clear his low bar of 41.5 receiving yards, even if David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, or both are ahead of him in receiving yards this week.
Where to play: Cedric Tillman More Than 41.5 Receiving Yards | 1.69x at Sleeper Fantasy
Where To Place Thursday Night Football NFL Prop Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your NFL player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL player props.
NFL Fantasy Player Props
We love the NFL player props available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog, PrizePicks, Betr Picks, Vivid Picks and Sleeper. These fantasy player props aren’t technically sports betting picks, but they offer a very similar experience to prop-betting parlays.
You’ll often find the juiciest lines and payout odds for NFL props available at legal DFS sites. These apps are available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
NFL Betting Sites
You can’t go wrong with DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in your state:
More Sports Betting Resources
Check out the Props.com NFL Betting Guide and Guide To Prop Betting for more on how to bet NFL props.
For more on the available sports betting bonuses in your state, take a look at some of these Props.com resources:
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PrizePicks and other DFS apps offer fantasy prop contests that are very similar to prop betting. Check out our Apps Like PrizePicks guide, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
Wondering if the PrizePicks daily fantasy app is legal in California? Check out the Is PrizePicks Legal in California? Guide.
