Looking for all the best Thursday Night Football player props? You have come to the right place. Every week, we ask our analysts to sift through all the best daily fantasy sports sites to find you their best TNF player props for every week of the NFL season.
Make sure to check back weekly as this page will be updated a few days prior to each week’s matchup so you can get your bets in early to grab the most value.
So let’s dive into our two best plays for this week’s matchup between the Patriots and Jets.
Best TNF Player Props: Week 3 – Patriots/Jets
Breece Hall “Higher” Than 30.5 Receiving Yards
Breece Hall is an electrifying runner. Yet, his work through the air is also remarkable. Hall had a wide receiver-caliber touchdown grab against the Titans last week. He’s not merely a highlight-reel player, either.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Hall has been targeted on an eye-popping 32.6% of his 43 targets, parlaying his hefty target rate into 12 receptions, 91 receiving yards, and 2.12 Y/RR. He’s also had a 0.9 average depth of target (aDOT). Anything past the line of scrimmage is noteworthy for running backs because it indicates they’re getting more than swing passes and screens. To that point, Hall has six targets from zero to nine yards downfield and one 20-plus yards.
Hall’s receiving work is also noteworthy from an NFL-wide standpoint. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Hall’s 23.7% target share is the highest among running backs, and his 20.0% first-read rate is the second-highest, trailing only Alvin Kamara’s 23.3% first-read rate. So, Hall isn’t just a check-down option.
Hall’s matchup is decent, too. According to Pro Football Reference, running backs have had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 60 receiving yards against the Patriots this season. Moreover, Cincinnati’s and Seattle’s running backs don’t have the receiving chops Hall possesses. Finally, Aaron Rodgers has a history of featuring his running backs in the passing game, most recently peppering Aaron Jones with targets on the Packers before feeding Hall through the first two weeks in 2024. Thus, Hall should exceed 30.5 receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.
Where to play: Breece Hall Higher Than 30.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog
Mike Williams “Lower” Than 22.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Williams has been eased into action after tearing his ACL last year. According to PFF, Williams played only six passing snaps and ran six routes in Week 1. Big Mike didn’t have a target against the 49ers.
In Week 2, Williams surged to 25 passing snaps and 24 routes. However, he had only one target, parlaying it into a 19-yard reception on a beautifully thrown 50/50 ball along the sideline. Williams has only one target on 30 routes this season.
His lackluster usage and possible lack of chemistry with Rodgers are only part of why the “lower” for 22.5 receiving yards at Underdog is alluring. Additionally, the big-bodied wide receiver might be on a restrictive snap count on the short week.
Unfortunately, the Jets didn’t play a Thursday Night Football game in 2023 until late in the year. As a result, it’s unclear how they would have handled Hall’s snaps in the running back’s recovery from a torn ACL. Gang Green has voiced that Williams is on the same recovery plan so that data point would have been insightful. Nevertheless, it’s not unreasonable to guess Williams could play fewer snaps this week.
New York’s offensive tendencies are also under-friendly for Williams’s receiving prop. Per RotoViz’s pace app, the Jets have a situation-neutral per-60 minute pace of 54 plays, the ninth-lowest this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots want to own the ball with a ground-and-pound approach. This year, New England’s 59% situation-neutral rush rate is the second highest. As a result, there are plenty of reasons to believe Williams will be quiet on Thursday night.
Where to play: Mike Williams Lower Than 22.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog
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The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your NFL player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL player props.
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NFL Fantasy Player Props
We love the NFL player props available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper Fantasy. These fantasy player props aren’t technically sports betting picks, but they offer a very similar experience to prop-betting parlays.
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