More than 115 combined playoff appearances. Ten combined Super Bowl titles (five apiece). And six head-to-head NFC Championship Game showdowns.
Love ’em or loathe ’em, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers have delivered some epic playoff games against one another through the decades (the most famous of which was decided by one epic “catch”).
On Sunday, the two squads rekindle their postseason rivalry for the first time since meeting in three consecutive NFC title clashes from January 1993-January 1995. And if the oddsmakers are accurate — Dallas is a scant 3-point home favorite — we could be headed for another Cowboys-Niners playoff classic.
Here are our top five prop bets for the lone NFL Wild Card Weekend battle between teams that didn’t square off in the regular season.
Odds via BetMGM, DraftKings, and PointsBet USA, and updated as of 4:30 p.m. on Jan. 14.
Dallas Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott
The prop: 36.5 Total Pass Attempts
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
There’s certainly a difference of opinion in the betting marketplace regarding this prop. PointsBet USA has Prescott’s pass attempts number lower than such outlets as DraftKings, BetMGM, and The SuperBook — the latter three have this 49ers vs. Cowboys prop at 38.5 (with varying degrees of juice to the Under).
Now here’s why it’s important to shop this prop: Not only did Prescott average 37.3 pass attempts this season, but he threw 37 passes in one game, 38 in another, and 39 in three contests. So the difference between 36.5 and 38.5 is potentially significant.
Focusing strictly on PointsBet’s prop number, Prescott chucked the pigskin downfield 37-plus times in 10 of 16 games this season. And his right arm really got a workout in the second half of the season. Prior to the Week 18 finale in Philadelphia — where Prescott threw the ball 27 times in less than three quarters — the Cowboys’ gunslinger had 37 or more pass attempts in seven consecutive games.
In fact, here are Prescott’s pass-attempt stats from Weeks 13-17: 40, 39, 37, 39 and 38.
As with most quarterbacks, Prescott took to the air more often in close games. He threw 38 or more passes in all five of Dallas’ losses (average number of attempts: 45). And in the three games the Cowboys won by seven points or fewer, Prescott had 27, 51 and 39 attempts.
Will this be one of those tight games that might require Prescott to drop back more often than usual? The oddsmakers sure think so. And it’s easy to see why: San Francisco faced three playoff teams in the last five weeks (Rams, Titans, Bengals). All three games were decided by exactly three points (and two went to overtime).
San Francisco 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo
The prop: 1.5 Total Passing TDs
The odds: Over -121/Under -110
For someone who is 33-14 as a starting quarterback and led his team to the Super Bowl just two years ago, Garoppolo sure catches a lot of grief. (And it’s mostly from irrational San Francisco fans who think every QB who dons a Niners jersey must perform to the level of guys named Montana and Young.)
Well, Garoppolo haters had to zip it last week, when Tom Brady’s one-time protégé guided his team back from a 17-0 deficit against the Rams … on the road … in a must-win game. (Cue those irrational Niners fans: Yeah, but he threw TWO interceptions!)
When it comes to this prop, Jimmy G was the poster child for consistency: He threw at least one touchdown pass in 14 of 15 games (only exception was a 33-22 win at Chicago). But he never threw more than two TDs. Yep, Garoppolo tossed exactly one touchdown eight times and exactly two touchdowns six times. Five of those multiple-TD performances occurred within a six-game span from Weeks 9-14 (including three consecutive road contests).
Garoppolo faced six playoff opponents this season (Eagles, Packers, Bengals, Cardinals, and Rams twice). His passing TD numbers in those games: 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1 and 1. What about the Cowboys’ defense? It allowed 24 passing touchdowns in the regular season — exactly 1.5 per game.
Which is a long way of saying … this prop is a total toss-up. (Again, shop the market. While everyone has Jimmy G’s TD number at 1.5, the juice varies by book.)
Dallas Cowboys: RB Ezekiel Elliott
The prop: 69.5 Combined Rushing and Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Say this much for Elliott: He’ll never outproduce Cowboys legend (and all-time NFL rushing leader) Emmitt Smith on the field, but he did a better job of fleecing Jerry Jones at the negotiating table.
Zeke is now halfway through the six-year, $90 million extension he signed right before the start of the 2019 season. And here’s what Jerruh has gotten for his money:
- 2019: 84.8 rushing yards per game
- 2020: 65.3 rushing ypg
- 2021: 58.9 rushing ypg
Elliott’s receiving numbers also have dipped each of the last three seasons (reception totals: 54, 52, 47; yardage totals: 420, 338, 287).
And now you know why multiple books have dropped this prop number from an opener of 72.5 to 70.5 to 69.5. And there’s a good chance it falls some more, because prior to last week’s 18-carry, 85-yard rushing outburst in Philadelphia, Elliott hadn’t rushed for more than 52 yards in 10 consecutive games.
Granted, after a Week 1 no-show at Tampa Bay (33 rushing, 6 receiving yards), Elliott did top this rushing/receiving prop number in each of his next seven games. Since then, though, he’s done so twice: Last week against the Eagles (90 combined yards) and Week 15 against the Giants (72 combined yards).
Also worth noting: Tony Pollard, who shared backfield duties with Elliott all season, is off the injured list after missing most of the last two games.
San Francisco 49ers: TE George Kittle
The prop: 20.5 Yards Longest Reception
The odds: Over -115/Under -110
After an injury-plagued 2020 season in which he was limited to eight games, Kittle rebounded this year and put up numbers that approached what he did during his breakout 2018 and 2019 campaigns. The gifted tight end finished with 71 catches for 910 yards and a career-best six TDs in 14 games.
However, Kittle’s reception totals — an important thing to consider when analyzing this longest-reception prop — were all over the map this season. He had seven games with four receptions or fewer, and two with exactly five. In his other five contests, Kittle hauled in 6, 6, 9 and 13 passes.
The 13-catch game happened in Cincinnati in Week 14. However, in four games since, he has a combined 14 receptions.
Now, Kittle did beat this longest-reception prop number in half of his 14 games (including four of the last six). But he only did it twice in seven games against playoff teams; twice in his last six road games, and once when he caught fewer than six passes.
Cowboys-49ers: First Quarter Points
The Prop: 9.5 Combined First Quarter Points
The odds: Over -125/Under +105
Here’s another instance where it pays to line shop: DraftKings has this 49ers vs. Cowboys first-quarter points prop at 9.5 (Over -125). Conversely, The SuperBook and BetMGM each have the number at 10 — but with different juice splits (+105/-125 at The SuperBook; -105/-120 at BetMGM).
Obviously, a lot of points are expected in Big D on Sunday afternoon, as this game boasts the highest total of all six NFL Super Wild Card Weekend contests. But will those points come early? Maybe. Just don’t expect the 49ers to contribute much.
San Francisco was blanked in the first quarter in its last two games and has produced a total of 13 first-quarter points in its last five outings. The first-quarter score in those five games: 3-0, 0-0, 7-0, 3-3 and 3-3.
The 49ers’ offense was especially slow to get going on the road. Aside from a 14-7 first-quarter lead at Seattle on Dec. 5, San Francisco produced a total of 23 first-quarter points in its other eight road games. What’s more, not one of those eight contests featured more than seven combined points after the opening 15 minutes.
Overall, the 49ers and their opponents tallied fewer than 10 combined first-quarter points in 11 of 17 regular-season games (another landed right on 10).
The Cowboys, on the other hand, were much more of a front-runner. They averaged 7.65 first-quarter points by themselves, including scoring at least 10 points five times. That average jumped to 9.71 over the final seven weeks of the regular season — and that includes the Week 17 home finale, in which Dallas trailed the Cardinals 3-0 in the opening stanza.
For the season, the Cowboys and their opponents produced 10 or more first-quarter points in 10 of 17 contests, including five of eight in Dallas.
That said, before you go out and hammer the Over on this prop (or the Cowboys minus-0.5 points in the first quarter), keep this in mind: While the 49ers’ offense tends to hit the snooze button at the start of games, their defense comes to play. San Francisco has yielded just nine first-quarter points in the last five games; 23 in the last nine games; and 67 all season (3.94 per contest).
