When it comes to rushing props, I tend to favor finding reliable, stud running backs. We can check that box quite easily when we consider Nick Chubb’s rushing over in Week 17.
Chubb is averaging 95.3 rushing yards per game on the season, taking no fewer than 17 carries in three straight games.
Chubb and the Browns will face AFC North rival Pittsburgh in a must-win game on Monday Night Football, and I’ll be looking to take the Cleveland runner, depending on the line we’re given by sportsbooks.
The Prop: Nick Chubb over rushing yards (currently projected at 91.5 on BetPrep)
Nick Chubb’s Production Speaks For Itself
As mentioned, Chubb is averaging over 95 rushing yards per game, which is higher than his projected over/under.
Chubb has 100 rushing yards five times this season, most recently last weekend against Green Bay, finishing with 126 rushing yards.
There’s no denying that he’s one of the top backs in all of football, and since Kareem Hunt went on IR, Chubb has seen steady rushing volume. Hunt is not practicing to start the week, and unless we hear otherwise, the bell cow back role remains with Chubb.
Running backs with the most evaded tackles this year:
Jonathan Taylor 148
Derrick Henry 92
Najee Harris 89
Nick Chubb 83
Antonio Gibson 80 #FantasyFootball #FantasyData @MyFantasyLeague— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) December 29, 2021
Pittsburgh’s Defense Favors A Big Rushing Game
The Steelers do not own the menacing defense you likely associate with them. Only one team in the NFL allows more rushing yards per game than Pittsburgh’s 120.4.
By all efficiency metrics, this run defense is not good. DVOA grades the Steelers run defense as the third-worst unit in the league.
The last three weeks, in particular, have highlighted the Steelers’ issues slowing down the run game.
Three games ago, it was Minnesota rushing for a mammoth 232 yards and over 7 yards per carry. The following two games had both Tennessee and Kansas City running backs finishing with more than 125 rushing yards.
Few do it better than Chubb, consistently ripping off big gains behind his tremendous offensive line, evidenced by the below:
Wyat Teller (77) and Nick Harris (53) clearing the lane for Nick Chubb 😤😤#NFL | #CLEvsGBpic.twitter.com/Ow4n0IajvP
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 25, 2021
I don’t foresee a scenario where Pittsburgh stops this man.
BetPrep Brings Forth Positive Trends From This Season
A good way to wrap up any prop look is to pop over to BetPrep and to see a player’s recent trends against their over/under.
Nick Chubb’s page has some solid trends from his 2021 season that support betting his over on Monday:
Ran for 92+ yards in 4 of his last 5 (80%) games on the road. (avg. 108.0 per gm)
Ran for 92+ yards in 5 of his last 6 (83.33%) games after a loss. (avg. 109.2 per gm)
Ran for 92+ yards in 4 of his last 5 (80%) games after his team covered. (avg. 108.6 per gm)
Expect a big game from Chubb; I’ll be betting on him confidently. For more on the NFL, you can follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.