At a time when college basketball rightly dominates the landscape, the NFL just had to momentarily step in and remind everyone who rules the American sports betting roost. Super Bowl odds got a jolt Tuesday on news of where two franchise quarterbacks will spend the 2022-23 season.
Aaron Rodgers made the bigger splash, announcing he’ll remain with the Green Bay Packers. A short time later, the Denver Broncos announced a deal to acquire Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.
Jason Scott, vice president of trading for BetMGM, talked with Props.com about how all these events impacted Super Bowl futures odds and action.
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2023 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Super Bowl Odds |
| Buffalo Bills | +750 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +750 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1,000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1,100 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1,200 |
| Denver Broncos | +1,200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1,400 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1,400 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +2,000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2,000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +2,200 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2,500 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2,500 |
| New England Patriots | +2,500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2,500 |
| Cleveland Browns | +3,000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +4,000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +4,000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +4,000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +4,000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +5,000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +5,000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +5,000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +5,000 |
| Washington Commanders | +5,000 |
| Chicago Bears | +6,600 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +6,600 |
| New York Giants | +8,000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +10,000 |
| Detroit Lions | +15,000 |
| Houston Texans | +15,000 |
| New York Jets | +15,000 |
Odds via BetMGM and updated as of 8 p.m. ET on March 8.
A-Rodg Reshapes Super Bowl Betting Market
Rodgers’ announcement was definitely huge in terms of news. How huge in terms of the size of his contract extension is still unknown. Initial reports suggested four years and a whopping $200 million (with $150 million guaranteed). But the Packers QB denied those financial reports, or that he’s even autographed the deal. Rodgers only confirmed that he’ll be back on the frozen tundra.
Hey everyone, just wanted to clear some things up; YES I will be playing with the @packers next year, however, reports about me signing a contract are inaccurate, as are the supposed terms of the contract I “signed”. I’m very excited to be back 💪🏼 #year18❤️
— Aaron Rodgers (@AaronRodgers12) March 8, 2022
Regardless, when the two-time defending MVP officially eschews rumors of going to the Broncos, elsewhere, or even retiring, the Super Bowl odds market is going to react. Three weeks ago, following Super Bowl 56, you could’ve gotten the Packers at +2,000 (20/1) to win Super Bowl 57. Tuesday morning at BetMGM, Green Bay was still +1,500.
Then the news broke of Rodgers’ return, and the Packers are now the +1,000 third choice, trailing only co-favorites Buffalo and Kansas City (+750), and just ahead of the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams (+1,100). However, the fact the Rodgers rumor mill has finally ground to a halt hasn’t yet stimulated bettors to fire on Green Bay.
“Negligible interest,” Scott said. “Everyone was waiting for Aaron Rodgers to make a decision.”
BetMGM’s Super Bowl betting splits bear out the limited early interest. Yes, the Packers are seventh in ticket count and money. But the Bills are drawing 3.5 times more tickets and money, leading the way in both categories. At No. 2 are the Chiefs, who are taking twice as many bets and twice as much cash as Green Bay.
DangeRuss Revives Denver’s Hopes
The Broncos’ Super Bowl odds went on a more intriguing trek Tuesday. Denver was arguably the favorite to be Rodgers’ destination if he and the Packers parted ways. As such, multiple sportsbooks last month opened the Broncos in the +1,500 range to win the next championship. Denver — which is coming off a 7-10 campaign and hasn’t made the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in the 2015 season — was among the top half-dozen or so teams on the Super Bowl odds board, ahead of such 2021-22 playoff participants as Tennessee and Dallas.
Why did oddsmakers give the Broncos so much respect? Clearly, they were bullish on the prospect of Rodgers coming to the Mile High City. His decision to instead return to Green Bay, followed shortly thereafter by the Broncos-Seahawks deal for Wilson, set off a whirlwind.
“The Broncos have had a wild ride,” Scott said. “They were 15/1 before the Rodgers news broke, moved to 25/1 when Rodgers stayed with the Pack, and are now down to 12/1.”
That makes Denver the co-fifth choice, joining the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. Much like Green Bay, though, Tuesday’s news did not unleash a slew of Broncos cash, which didn’t surprise Scott.
“We were conservative on the Broncos, with the expectation of them picking up a QB,” he said of BetMGM’s strategy. “So not much interest [from bettors].”
Ticket Takers and (Perhaps) Money Makers
As noted above, the co-favored Bills and Chiefs are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in both ticket count and money in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds market. But Buffalo is well ahead in first, taking almost twice as many tickets and dollars as K.C. The Tennessee Titans — another rumored Rodgers landing spot — are third in tickets and fourth in dollars, and currently sitting at +2,200.
Denver is No. 4 in tickets and No. 5 in money, and the Bengals are fifth in tickets and sixth in cash. Interestingly, the San Francisco 49ers (+1,400) — who have their own quarterback issues to sort out — are sixth in ticket count, but third in money wagered on (just behind the Chiefs).
BetMGM’s John Ewing said the Bills, Titans, and Broncos are 1-2-3 in Super Bowl liability. Scott indicated the 49ers are a liability, as well.
Relatedly, Ewing noted that San Francisco is getting a lot of attention in the NFC futures market. The Niners, who reached the NFC title game last season, opened +700 and are now +600, behind the Rams (+450), Cowboys (+500) and Packers (+600). But San Fran is No. 1 by a mile in early tickets and money, and is No. 1 in liability.
Similarly in the AFC, the Bills — co-favorites with the Chiefs at +400 — are No. 1 in tickets, money, and liability.
But again, it’s early. Be it Super Bowl or conference futures, there’s a long way to go. And there’s very little money in the pot at this point.
“We’re at less than 1 percent of where we will end up on handle,” Scott said.
