On the American sports betting landscape, there’s nothing that’s more 24/7/365 than the NFL. The NFL Draft, held April 28-30 right here in Las Vegas, certainly helped drum up more offseason interest. And some shifting Super Bowl odds reflected that interest.
Mind you, there was no real change at the top of the ladder, with the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers remaining co-favorites to raise the Lombardi Trophy in nine months. But a few teams made noteworthy moves — for better and for worse, in the eyes of oddsmakers.
Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor for The SuperBook, talked with Props.com about the latest in Super Bowl futures odds and action.
2023 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Super Bowl Odds |
| Buffalo Bills | +700 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +700 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +800 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1200 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1,200 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1200 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1600 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1800 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +2000 |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2,000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +3000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +3000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +3000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +4000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +4,000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +4000 |
| New England Patriots | +4000 |
| Washington Commanders | +8000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +10,000 |
| Chicago Bears | +10,000 |
| Detroit Lions | +10,000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +10,000 |
| New York Giants | +10,000 |
| New York Jets | +10,000 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +10,000 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +20,000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +30,000 |
| Houston Texans | +30,000 |
Odds via SuperBook and updated as of 8 p.m. ET on March 21.
Fly Eagles Fly
The Philadelphia Eagles went 9-8 SU last season, but the NFL being what is these days, they still earned a wild-card slot. Philly’s stay in the postseason was short, though, ending with a 31-15 loss at Tampa Bay.
There wasn’t much faith in the Eagles for the 2022-23 season, either. Prior to the Draft, Philadelphia was +5000 in odds to win the Super Bowl. But a big trade during the first round helped amp up the Eagles.
Philly acquired wideout A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans in exchange for the 18th and 101st picks in this year’s Draft. By the time the Draft dust settled, the Eagles’ odds improved to +3000.
“There was some public action on the Eagles,” Degnon said. “A.J. Brown is obviously a trade that will benefit the Eagles right away, a proven wide receiver already, who will help them stretch the field.”
Philadelphia also had the 15th pick in the first round, but traded up to 13th in a deal with the Houston Texans. With that 13th pick, the Eagles took Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis, whom Degnon predicts will help as a run-stuffer.
Other Movers and Shakers
The New Orleans Saints were even more upwardly mobile than the Eagles on the Super Bowl odds board. Pre-Draft, New Orleans sat at +6000. But the team (and bookmakers) expect QB Jameis Winston to be fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered last season.
And those bookmakers were impressed with the Saints’ picks, most notably Ohio State wideout Chris Olave, selected No. 11 overall.
“They traded up for Olave, who will make an immediate impact on offense, paired with former Ohio State wide receiver Michael Thomas,” Degnon said.
Thomas missed all of last season with an ankle injury. But he’s expected to be good to go in 2022-23 under new Saints coach Dennis Allen, who takes over for the retired Sean Payton.
Degnon also noted New Orleans boosted its offensive line with Northern Iowa tackle Trevor Penning, taken 19th overall. And although The SuperBook had already shortened the Saints to +3000, the post-Draft signing of free-agent safety Tyrann Mathieu on May 2 certainly helps the team, too.
Of course, there were teams heading south in Super Bowl futures odds, too. Most notably (and not surprisingly), the Tennessee Titans slid from +1800 to +3000.
“The A.J. Brown trade, as much as it helped the Eagles, obviously hurt the Titans,” Degnon said. “He makes a bigger impact than just his numbers, because if he’s healthy and on the field, he’s someone who draws a lot of attention, lightening the box for guys like Derrick Henry. Pair that loss with the fact that the other teams in the [AFC South] are getting better, and that’s the reason for the [Tennessee’s downward] move.”
Several weeks into last season, the Arizona Cardinals were undefeated and among the favorites to win the 2021-22 Super Bowl. However, Arizona isn’t even in that same area code for the 2022-23 Super Bowl. The Cardinals were +3000 pre-Draft and are now +4000, with that move aided by the six-game suspension of star wideout DeAndre Hopkins that was announced May 2.
“We’re not impressed with the Cardinals giving up a first-round pick [to get] Hollywood Brown,” Degnon said of Arizona’s move to acquire the wideout from the Ravens. “And Hopkins is now suspended six games for PEDs. It’s a tough division for the Cardinals, as well.”
Indeed, the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl, beating division rival San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Top of the Super Bowl Odds Board
When The SuperBook opened it 2022-23 Super Bowl odds market Feb. 2, the Buffalo Bills were +700 favorites. That’s where the Bills sit today, though they’re joined by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took a circuitous route to the co-favorite spot.
Tom Brady retired Feb. 1, leading The SuperBook to open Tampa Bay at a lengthy +5000 and stretch to +6000. But Brady’s mid-March decision to return sent the Bucs soaring to the top of the board.
“Nobody was interested in the Bucs without Brady,” Degnon said. “We took a couple big bets at 60/1 and 50/1 right before the news broke that he was coming back. Once it was official that he was coming back, there was some decent action right away, but that has since cooled off with the Bucs only being 7/1 now. They are, however, one of our bigger liabilities.”
Buffalo is not as big a concern, though it’s not a winner for the book, either.
“Action has been steady on the Bills since we opened the odds. We’re a very small loser on the Bills as we stand right now,” Degnon said.
The Kansas City Chiefs — perennially among the favorites of both oddsmakers and Super Bowl futures bettors — opened as the +800 co-second choice with the Rams. But K.C. has since slipped back a bit to +1200. The Chiefs traded star wideout Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, and as noted above, Mathieu departed for the Saints.
“We are a winner to the Chiefs in our futures book, but they are still top-10 in terms of ticket count,” Degnon said.
And what of those defending champion Rams, who opened and are currently +800?
“We do pretty well on the Rams as of right now,” Degnon said. “Nobody seems that interested in a repeat at 8/1.”
Ticket Takers and (Perhaps) Money Makers
Interestingly, only one of the favorites at the top is among the top three in tickets and money in The SuperBook’s Super Bowl odds market. The Bills are No. 2 in tickets and money, sandwiched between the same two teams. The Las Vegas Raiders are No. 1 in tickets/No. 3 in money, while the Titans are No. 3 in tickets/No. 1 in money.
So the list of teams The SuperBook is rooting against shouldn’t be all that surprising.
“The teams we’re dodging are the Titans, Raiders, Buccaneers, and Steelers,” Degnon said.
Las Vegas opened +4000 and is now +3000, bolstered by the trade for stud wideout Davante Adams, erstwhile of Green Bay. Pittsburgh, however, opened and remains a +10,000 (100/1) long shot. The Steelers lost longtime quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to retirement, signed former No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky as a free agent, and selected the first QB in the 2022 Draft with the 20th overall pick, Kenny Pickett from nearby Pitt.
The best-case scenarios for The SuperBook include: The Carolina Panthers, though like the Steelers, they’re +10,000; the aforementioned Cardinals; and the Dallas Cowboys, who opened +1000 but have slipped back to +1600.
“The Cowboys are a surprising one,” Degnon said. “We usually see action early and often on Dallas to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.”