Looking for the top Sunday Night Football player props? You’ve come to the right place.
We’ve asked our Props.com analyst Josh Shepardson to search through all the best daily fantasy sports picks for every week of the NFL season so he can bring two of his best Sunday Night Football player picks to the table.
Sunday Night Football Props: Week 15 NFL Picks
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Let’s dive right into the action below.
Josh Jacobs More Than 72.5 Rushing Yards
The Packers substantially changed their backfield in the offseason, signing Josh Jacobs to a lucrative deal before cutting Aaron Jones. Head coach Matt LaFleur was reluctant to feed Jones, but he’s utilized Jacobs as a workhorse in a run-heavy offense.
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Packers have a 52% situation-neutral rush rate this year. Since Week 11, Green Bay has been tied for the NFL’s situation-neutral rush rate (55%). Jacobs has been the team’s bell-cow running back throughout the season. As a result, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, this season, Jacobs has rushed 239 times for 1,053 yards (81.0 per game) at 4.41 yards per carry, 1.76 yards before contact per attempt, 2.65 yards after contact per attempt, with a 45.2% stuff percentage, 0.21 missed tackles forced per attempt, 45.8% success rate in zone concepts and 55.8% in man/gap concepts.
Jacobs has a median of 76 rushing yards in 13 games this year, surpassing 72.5 eight times. The veteran running back has also cleared 72.5 rushing yards in six of Green Bay’s nine victories. The Packers are 2.5-point favorites this week.
Jacobs also has a decent matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks have allowed 109.5 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. Since Week 11, the Seahawks have allowed 97.5 rushing yards per game at 4.59 yards per carry. Finally, Jacobs’s rushing line is a slight bargain at Underdog compared to Sleeper’s line of 75.5 rushing yards.
Where to play: Josh Jacobs More Than 72.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog
Geno Smith More Than 246.5 Passing Yards (1.64x)
First-time NFL offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb dialed up the pass to open the season. During the first eight weeks, the Seahawks were tied for the NFL’s highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%). Since Week 9, Seattle has had a 57% situation-neutral pass rate. The downturn in Seattle’s situation-neutral pass rate isn’t optimal for Geno Smith’s passing yardage outlook.
Still, the club’s situation-neutral pass rate is tied for the 12th-highest mark since Week 9. Lately, opponents have also had more success against the Packers through the air than on the ground. In Green Bay’s previous four games, they’ve allowed just 93.3 rushing yards per game at 3.81 yards per carry. Yet, the Packers have allowed 269.5 passing yards per game at 7.33 yards per attempt during that span.
Smith has averaged 267.2 passing yards per game this year, roughly what the Packers have averaged coughing up lately. The veteran quarterback also has a median of 254.0 passing yards, which is above his passing line of 246.5.
Smith doesn’t need a Herculean effort to surpass his passing prop. He also doesn’t need the Packers to do anything but perform as they have recently. In fact, the Packers can play slightly better than they have against the pass since Week 11, and Smith can slightly underperform his season average while still eclipsing 246.5 passing yards on Sunday night.
Where to play: Geno Smith More Than 246.5 Passing Yards | Underdog