The Super Bowl MVP odds have been released, and we’ve already noticed some early movement. For example, Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald opened at +2,500, then quickly got bet down to +1,600. That’s quite a drop, signaling that bettors are bullish on the reigning Defensive Player of the Year having a monster game against the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl 56.
What about the rest of the board? Is there still value elsewhere in the Super Bowl MVP odds market? Or is the best play to simply back a quarterback to win the award for the fifth time in the last six years?
Props.com attempts to answer those questions while analyzing some of the top Super Bowl MVP betting prospects at their current prices.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player | Position | Team | Odds |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | +125 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | +230 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | +550 |
| Aaron Donald | DL | LAR | +1,400 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | CIN | +2,500 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | LAR | +2,700 |
| Cam Akers | RB | LAR | +2,700 |
| Von Miller | LB | LAR | +3,900 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | +4,000 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | +6,000 |
| Jalen Ramsey | DB | LAR | +8,000 |
| Sony Michel | RB | LAR | +10,000 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | +10,000 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | +10,000 |
| Van Jefferson | WR | LAR | +10,000 |
| Trey Hendrickson | DL | CIN | +10,000 |
| Evan McPherson | K | CIN | +10,000 |
| Matt Gay | K | LA | +20,000 |
Super Bowl MVP odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and updated as of 11:30 a.m. on Friday, Feb. 11.
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Super Bowl MVP Odds: The Favorites
Through 55 Super Bowls, how many times has a quarterback won MVP? If you guessed more than half, you would be correct: 31 quarterbacks have walked off the field with the hardware, including four in the last five years. The most recent: Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady, who won his fifth career Super Bowl MVP last season despite a somewhat pedestrian line of 21-of-29 for 201 yards and 3 TDs in a 31-9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
So of course, Matthew Stafford (+125) and Joe Burrow (+230) have the shortest Super Bowl 56 MVP odds. If you believe Cincinnati will take home the Lombardi Trophy, you might want to entertain Burrow to win MVP at +230 odds. That’s a considerably better payout than the Bengals’ +166 on the moneyline. If Cincy pulls off the upset, there’s an extremely good chance that Burrow put together an MVP-worthy performance to make it happen.
It’s difficult to say the same about Stafford. Sure, he’s the favorite to win the award, but the Rams could win without their quarterback being the driving force. Cooper Kupp (+550), Aaron Donald (+1,400), and Odell Beckham Jr. (+2,700) all have star power and the ability to steal the show. Kupp has been the best player for Los Angeles this season, and he hasn’t slowed down in the playoffs.
Over his last two games, Kupp has totaled 20 receptions for 325 yards and three scores. That’s certainly production worthy of MVP consideration. Put it this way: If they gave an award after every playoff game, it’s fair to assume that Kupp would’ve earned it in the Divisional Round and NFC Championship Games. Can he do it again?
Ja’Marr Chase (+2,500) is another interesting option who has flexed some outstanding stat lines during his rookie season. The former LSU Tiger has posted 100-plus receiving yards in four of six games dating to Week 16 of the regular season. Who can forget his incredible Week 17 performance against the Chiefs, when he had 11 receptions for 266 yards and three TDs to lead a dramatic come-from-behind win? Chase will see some coverage from All-Pro defensive back Jalen Ramsey in Super Bowl 56, but he’s explosive enough to steal this award.
UPDATE: There’s a #BigBetAlert on Donald, as BetMGM reported a $7,500 wager on the defensive lineman to win Super Bowl MVP. The bet would pay $120,000. At FanDuel, Donald’s odds this week have dropped from +1,600 to +1,400.
Super Bowl MVP Odds: The Dark Horses
Rams tailback Cam Akers (+2,700) has seen his odds dip a bit from +3,000, but he’s probably my favorite value bet outside of the top five choices. He has potential game flow on his side in a contest that sees the Rams as consensus 4.5-point favorite. There’s a chance the Rams jump out to a lead and salt the game away on the ground with Akers, who didn’t even suit up this season until Week 17 because of an injury. The Bengals allowed 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season, which ranked 24th in the league. The matchup favors Akers, who could see enough opportunities to exceed 100 yards with a plunge (or two) into the end-zone. So he’s an interesting bet at a very attractive price.
Similar to Akers, there’s a chance Joe Mixon (+4,000) could benefit if the Bengals jump out to an early lead then rely on their rushing attack. However, it’s important to remember that Los Angeles has a top-five run defense in terms of rushing yards allowed and yards per rush attempt. The last running back to win the Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis (30 carries, 157 yards, 3 TDs) in Super Bowl 32 — way back in 1998. (No wonder these running backs have relatively long odds!)
Rams linebacker Von Miller (+3,900) already has a Super Bowl MVP under his belt. The veteran had six tackles, 2.5 sacks, and two forced fumbles in Denver’s Super Bowl 50 victory over Carolina. Defensive stats like fumble recoveries and interceptions are extremely random, but Miller is an impact player who very easily could leave his mark on this game. Including Miller, two defensive players have won Super Bowl MVP in the past eight seasons. Linebacker Malcolm Smith of the Seahawks earned the honor in Super Bowl 48. Prior to that, Ray Lewis (Super Bowl 35) was the last defender to be named MVP.
Super Bowl MVP Odds: The Long Shots
Bengals wideout Tyler Boyd (+10,000) is another interesting option, and his odds have jumped from an opener of +8,500. Chase is the star of Cincinnati’s receiving corps, but he disappeared at times in the regular season. For example, look at the Bengals’ Week 15 matchup at Denver. Tee Higgins and Chase combined for three receptions while Boyd came through with 5 catches for 96 yards and a score. If that 15-10 win over Denver had been the Super Bowl, Boyd would’ve won the MVP, as Burrow only had 157 passing yards. A similar scenario probably needs to take place for Boyd to sniff any Super Bowl 56 MVP votes.
Finally, what is going on with these kickers? The odds for Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson (+10,000) and L.A.’s Matt Gay (+20,000) seem way too short. By comparison, both kickers from last year’s Super Bowl (the Chiefs’ Harrison Butker and the Buccaneers’ Ryan Succop) were +40,000. McPherson has been money all postseason (12-for-12, with four field goals in every game). But betting on him to win Super Bowl MVP doesn’t appear to be a smart wager from a value perspective.