Now that you’ve (hopefully) emerged from your Thanksgiving Day tryptophan coma, it’s time to invest what’s left of your NFL Week 12 bankroll in some NFL Sunday props.
After focusing on last week’s marquee matchup between the Cowboys and Chiefs, we turn our attention to another NFC-AFC clash between two playoff contenders as Tampa Bay heads north to face the Colts.
Our top five Buccaneers-Colts props include a former No. 2 overall draft pick enjoying a renaissance season in a new uniform; a former No. 199 overall draft pick/seven-time Super Bowl champ/odds-on favorite to win this year’s MVP (at age 44); and a dual-threat tailback who is running away with the NFL’s rushing title.
As is the case every week, we present an argument for each side of these NFL props, then leave it for you to choose which is the better bet.
Odds updated as of 7 p.m. ET Nov. 26.
Carson Wentz Over/Under 1.5 Passing TDs
The odds: Over -105/Under -125 (at BetMGM, DraftKings, and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Colts’ oft-injured QB won’t win Comeback Player of the Year (the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott pretty much has that one locked up). And unlike his counterpart this week, Wentz isn’t in the MVP conversation — but maybe he should be. Not only has he answered the bell for every game to this point, but Wentz has 18 TD passes vs. just three picks in 2021. (Last year’s TD/INT ratio: 16-15.). The former first-round draft pick also has thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven of Indy’s 11 games, and he has 11 TD tosses in six home contests.
The case for the Under: Six of Wentz’s seven multi-TD games occurred in consecutive outings from Week 4-9. However, in the past two weeks against Jacksonville (home) and Buffalo (road), he tossed just one. Also, while Tampa Bay has surrendered 18 passing TDs this season, it has allowed multiple TD passes just once in the last five games. And those came from two Saints quarterbacks (Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian). You have to go back to Week 5 for the last time one quarterback (Miami’s Jacoby Brissett) threw two TDs against the Bucs.
Tom Brady Over/Under 310.5 Passing Yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -121 (at PointsBet USA)
The case for the Over: Father Time might be undefeated, but he’s absorbing some serious haymakers from The Golden Boy, who leads the NFL in passing this season at 317.7 yards per game. Brady also has eclipsed this prop number in three of his last four meetings against the Colts (all when he was a member of the Patriots).
The case for the Under: Like most senior citizens who require a mid-afternoon nap, Brady is experiencing some midseason droopiness. He’s passed for 310-plus yards just once in his last five games. In fact, he’s only done so four times all season. And while he’s lit up the Colts in recent years, only two quarterbacks have thrown for more than 270 yards against Indianapolis this season. One was Lamar Jackson (442 yards). The other? Third-string Jets QB Josh Johnson, who came on in relief in the Week 9 Thursday night game and passed for 317 yards — but all in garbage time.
Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 108.5 Combined Rushing/Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -115 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: With two-time defending NFL rushing champ Derrick Henry sidelined with a foot injury (likely for the season), Indianapolis’ second-year tailback is now wearing the “Best Running Back in the NFL” crown. Taylor leads the league with 1,122 rushing yards. If you remove Henry (who is second at 937 yards), Taylor is 271 yards clear of his closest healthy pursuer (Cleveland’s Nick Chubb). He also has 32 catches for 322 yards — meaning he’s averaging 131.3 rushing/receiving yards per game. His combined yardage totals the past eight weeks: 114, 169, 157, 118, 122, 200, 126, 204.
The case for the Under: So if Taylor has gone Over this prop each of the past eight weeks — and done so comfortably six times during this stretch — why is his rushing/receiving prop number so low in Week 12? Easy answer there: Taylor has done the bulk of his damage on the ground (he has 28 receiving yards or fewer in eight of his past 10 outings). Well, this week, he’s facing the No. 1 rushing defense in the league — the Bucs yield just 78.4 rushing yards per contest, which is 10 fewer than the team ranked second (Baltimore). Tampa has given up 100-plus rushing yards to just three teams all season.
Leonard Fournette Over/Under 31.5 Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -115/Under -110 (at BetMGM, DraftKings and The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: The Bucs’ RB has become a favorite check-down target for Brady, catching at least four passes in six of 10 games. In the last two weeks, Fournette has done more damage in the passing game (14 catches, 84 yards) than on the ground (21 carries for 82 yards). Fournette hurdled this prop number in both those contests (45 yards, 39 yards) and has done so in five of his last seven games.
The case for the Under: In their last six contests, the Colts’ defense has surrendered the following receiving yardage totals to running backs (including backups): 8, 15, 14, 0, 6, 0, 37, 40, 27, 16 and 26. Translation: If Brady is going to pad his passing stats this week, he’s probably gonna have to chuck the ball downfield. Because it’s clear Indy’s D knows how to turn off the opposing QB’s safety valve.
Ryan Succop Over/Under 1.5 Field Goals Made
The odds: Over -120/Under -110 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Bucs’ place-kicker has topped this prop number each of the past two weeks, going 5-for-5 against Washington (road) and the Giants (home). Obviously, Succop had to deal with the elements in those two outdoor games. This week, he’ll be swinging his right leg in the comfy confines of climate-controlled Lucas Oil Stadium. Big advantage, right? Well …
The case for the Under: Succop has attempted 334 field goals in his 13-year NFL career, with a success rate of just under 83 percent. However, only 21 of those 334 attempts have come indoors — and he only made 15 of them (71.4 percent). Yep, Succop is the rare breed that’s far more successful kicking outdoors. Also, prior to the last two games, Succop split the uprights twice in a game just once all season (he went 4-for-5 at New England in Week 4).
Week 11 Results
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (OVER – 1 INT)
Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 66.5 rushing yards (UNDER – 32 yards)
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over/Under 26.5 yards (OVER – 33 yards)
Ceedee Lamb Over/Under 5.5 receptions (UNDER – 3 receptions)
Cowboys-Chiefs Over/Under 51.5 total points, alternate total (UNDER – 28 total points)