Welcome to the NBA Betting Dime. If you missed the debut edition, it’s a weekly basketball column that combines some of the game’s best aspects. You can expect to find some analytical deep dives, social media clips, gambling information, and maybe some dumb pop culture references sprinkled in.
This week’s edition will touch on all the All-Star festivities, Goran Dragic signing with the Nets, and which superstars could be next to demand a move.
However, let’s start by digging into the impact of the Chris Paul injury:
1. CP6-To-8
NBA All-Star weekend had its ups and downs, but the biggest piece of news involved Paul. The Suns’ star point guard was diagnosed with a right thumb fracture, and the team announced he will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks.
The good news is most of that missed time will occur during the regular season. The final day of the regular season is Sunday, April 10, which is approximately seven weeks away. That means there’s a chance that Paul will return before the start of the postseason.
The bad news is that Paul’s absence could impact the Suns’ playoff seeding.
The Suns have plenty of cushion in that department at the moment. They’ve cruised to a 48-10 record through their first 58 games, good for an 82.8% winning percentage. They own a 6.5-game lead over the Warriors, who are currently in second place in the Western Conference.
However, there’s no guarantee that the Suns can hold their position without Paul. He has unsurprisingly been their most important player this season. The Suns have increased their Net Rating by +7.7 points per 100 possessions with CP3 on the floor this season, which is the top mark on the squad (per Cleaning the Glass). Overall, they’ve outscored their opponents by +10.8 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor, but that number drops to just +2.8 with Paul off the court. The Suns lead the league in Net Rating, but they figure to come back to the pack without the “Point God”.
Without Paul, opposing defenses are going to be able to place much more attention on Devin Booker. Booker has had an excellent season, but his numbers take a serious hit with Paul off the floor. His Effective Field Goal percentage drops by -8.1%, while his True Shooting percentage drops by -5.1%.
That said, not all hope is lost. Cameron Payne is not the same type of point guard as Paul – he’s more of a score-first player – but he is capable of providing Booker some assistance. The Suns managed to win two playoff games last season without Paul, and Payne was fantastic as a member of the starting lineup. He averaged 20.0 points and 9.0 assists in those contests while shooting 50% from the field.
It remains to be seen if Payne can have that kind of impact of an extended period, but the Suns are still in a good position. If they can play .500 basketball over their final 24 games, they would finish with a record of 60-22. That would force the Warriors to go 19-4 over their remaining 23 games.
Unfortunately, the injury to CP3 hasn’t created any additional value with the Suns in the NBA Finals market. Their best price is +450 on Caesars Sportsbook (see banner below for new player deposit bonus), which is basically the same as it was last week. The Suns have been the best team in basketball this season, and as long as Paul makes it back healthy, they should be considered the favorites to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.
2. Steph Curry Goes Nuclear
The best performance from All-Star weekend was undoubtedly Curry’s masterful performance during the All-Star game. He drilled a ridiculous 16 three-pointers – the most in any game in NBA history – culminating in his first All-Star game MVP.
It wasn’t just the sheer volume of buckets that was so impressive, but rather the fashion in which he got them. He hit his trademark look-away three-pointer from the corner:
This angle of Steph Curry's 15th three 🤣pic.twitter.com/O8QUYu3yBe
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) February 21, 2022
He hit a look-away 3 from the damn logo:
STEPH CURRY SHOOTS AND TURNS AROUND FROM THE LOGO 🤯🔥pic.twitter.com/S1tAXx7m0c
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) February 21, 2022
Somehow, the only two-pointer he made was arguably his most impressive:
.@StephenCurry30 secures his 50-piece with a ridiculous floater! 🙌
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👉 https://t.co/BuSAn3gRcn#NBA75 #NBAAllStar pic.twitter.com/t27rdQ7b4O— NBA Philippines (@NBA_Philippines) February 21, 2022
Overall, his shot chart from the All-Star game belongs in the Louvre:
16 of 27 from 3, including 7 of 14 from 30+ feet pic.twitter.com/ClUWhjsKBg
— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) February 21, 2022
On a night where the league highlighted the best players from the past 75 years, it’s only fitting that Curry put together a monster performance. While he’s not yet in the class of the true GOATs, no one has changed the game of basketball more than Curry. Shooting has become the one defining trait that all teams covet, and you simply cannot expect to contend for a title anymore without excellent three-point shooters.
Instead of kids wanting to be like Mike, now they want to be like Curry. Walk into any gym across the country and you’ll find kids hoisting up jumpers from 30+ feet. He’s made the three-pointer sexy, and analytics have ensured that it’s not going away anytime soon. Expect more long-distance launchers to enter the league in the near future.
3. NBA 75 At 75: The Big Exclusion
The NBA had a wonderful ceremony at halftime of the All-Star game, honoring the 76 best players in the league’s 75-year history. It was very well done overall, so naturally, I’m going to point out its biggest omission.
If you’re unaware, the NBA essentially took their “50 at 50” list add simply added 26 names to it. If you’re wondering “why 26 players and not 25,” it’s because there was a tie for the final spot in the voting portion.
There were a few older players added to the new list – Bob McAdoo and Dominique Wilkins – but the new additions were mainly players from the past two decades. That makes sense.
Most of the inclusions were pretty obvious, but there’s definitely room for nitpicking near the bottom. Among active players, Carmelo Anthony, Damian Lillard, and Anthony Davis feel like thin choices given their resumes.
As much as I’d love to leave Carmelo off this list – he’s never made the All-NBA First Team and has just two appearances on the second team – he ranks 11th in career points. I think that makes his spot pretty unimpeachable.
Davis is also a tough removal. He now owns a championship ring to go along with four All-NBA First Team selections and four spots on the All-Defensive team.
But Lillard? His accomplishments are lacking. Zero rings, only one first-team All-NBA nod, and just one top-five finish in MVP voting.
Instead, I’d like to give that spot to Dwight Howard. I know Howard has become a bit of a joke in his old age, but do not sleep on how dominant this man was in his prime. He took the Magic to the Finals when the second-best player on his team was Hedo Turkoglu. The East wasn’t much of a gauntlet back then, but he still beat a LeBron-led team in the playoffs.
Howard also has an impressive collection of accolades, including three Defensive Player of the Year awards, five All-NBA first-team nods, and four top-five MVP finishes. Howard also has a ring, albeit as a bench player for the 2020 Lakers.
Ultimately, Howard was the clear top center of his generation. That’s a low bar to clear, but it still counts for something. As good as Lillard is, he has never been considered the best point guard in basketball.
The odds of Howard’s exclusion being rectified in the “100 at 100” list also seem slim. The NBA has a new generation of big men who are going to demand inclusion, particularly Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Who knows who else will be coming down the pipeline as well?
Howard currently owns the seventh-highest Hall of Fame odds among active players per Basketball Reference, trailing only LeBron James, CP3, Kevin Durant, Curry, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. It’s a shame that Howard isn’t viewed in as high of regard as he should.
4. Ernie Johnson Has BARS
EJ is arguably one of the best human beings on the entire planet. It’s impossible to find anyone with a bad word to say against him, and he helps steer a pretty wild Inside the NBA ship.
Johnson also displayed another skill this week: He spits hot fire. He broke out a “poem” to honor the NBA’s 75th anniversary, but let’s be real, he dropped a track:
Ernie Johnson opened the 22nd Annual NBA Legends Awards with a poem to honor the members of the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team. #NBA75 pic.twitter.com/6X8NBSCghz
— NBA (@NBA) February 20, 2022
Just give me a baseline and I’ll bump that in my 2006 Honda Accord. It gets great gas mileage.
5. The NBA Ultimate Draft
Speaking of EJ, he presided over a pretty cool concept before the All-Star game. Eight teams comprised of 13 GMs ranging from former players, league insiders, and celebrities would draft the 76 players from the “75 at 75 list” and four wild cards to try and draft the best team possible.
As a fantasy football/basketball/baseball nerd, it was a concept that I was really excited about. Who hasn’t wanted to be in the war room trying to build the best team possible?
Some highlights from the event:
Dominique Wilkins drafted himself first.
This is now the second draft that the NBA on TNT crew has televised over the past decade, and Michael Jordan was not selected first in either of them. Okay then.
Wilkins’ justification was that he wanted to make sure he got drafted. That would make some sense if not for the fact that he was guaranteed to be drafted at some point and still had to make seven picks for his own team.
Jerry West then passed on both Jordan and LeBron with the second pick, opting instead for Kobe Bryant. Taking Kobe isn’t nearly as egregious as Wilkins taking himself, but it’s still silly that Jordan and LeBron lasted so long.
Team “According to Sources,” comprised of Shams Charania and Chris Haynes, ultimately stopped Jordan’s slide with the third pick. They paired him with Magic Johnson in the second round and Bill Russell in the third, giving them arguably three of the top five players in NBA history. What a squad.
Quavo focused on “drip”
Quavo was one of the celebrities to serve as a GM, and his squad was all about swag. He drafted Curry, Allen Iverson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Dennis Rodman, Dr. J, George Gervin, Walt Frazier, and Westbrook. I have no idea how that team would fare on the court, but the walk to the tunnel would be must-see TV.
Who doesn’t want to see Clyde walking into the area like this:
Hall of Fame duo. pic.twitter.com/F2gN73wSNK
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) February 18, 2022
Followed immediately by Westbrook:
RUSS HAS ARRIVED FOR HIS LAKERS DEBUT. 👀 pic.twitter.com/J9vppfd4ET
— House of Highlights (@HoHighlights) October 19, 2021
Good times for all.
Charles Barkley takes a dig at John Stockton
Stockton is the all-time leader in assists and steals, but he’s become a bit more known recently for his stance on the vaccine.
When he was selected in the Ultimate Draft, the Chuckster chirped in that Stockton would “only be available for half the games.” Not everyone picked up on it, but those who did thoroughly enjoyed it.
As usual, I feel like I could’ve done a better job than basically all of these “GMs,” but it’s still worth the watch if you have an hour to spare.
6. The Dragon Heads To Brooklyn
The buyout market is starting to heat up, and the Nets have secured one of the biggest pieces. Goran Dragic appeared in just five games for the Raptors this season, but he has the potential to be a huge addition.
Dragic isn’t the same player that he was in his prime, but he took on the role of a bench scorer with the Heat. He shot 37.3% from 3-point range over 26.7 minutes per game last season, and he averaged 13.4 points and 4.4 assists per game.
He also had a consistently positive impact on the offensive end during his tenure with the Heat. They averaged more points per 100 possessions with Dragic on the floor than off in each of his seven seasons. His impact was smaller last year than it had been in the past, but he’s still capable of filling a role with Harden now in Philadelphia.
Ultimately, what the Nets can accomplish over their final 23 games is going to be vital to monitor. Not only are they still fighting for their playoff lives – they’re currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings – but they have a lot of new pieces that are going to have to come together quickly. Ben Simmons is reportedly ramping up his activity this week, so he should be set to make his team debut soon. Adding Simmons and Dragic to their rotation is going to make the Nets a very different ballclub.
Unfortunately, there is still no clear timetable for Durant’s return. Until he’s back in the fold, we won’t have a full grasp of what the new-look Nets look like. I remain pessimistic that things can come together for them in such a short period, but Durant is arguably still the best player on the planet. As long as he’s in the lineup come playoff time, they’re going to be one of the favorites to win the title.
7. DeMar DeRozan Makes History
DeRozan has had a fantastic season. He was voted an All-Star starter, and he will likely garner some down-ballot attention for the MVP. He also currently has the Bulls in second place in the Eastern Conference despite absences from Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso. They’re also currently riding a five-game winning streak.
The team’s performance of late can be attributed directly to DeRozan’s play. He has done something that has never been done in the league’s history. Not by Jordan, LeBron, or Wilt Chamberlain.
DeRozan has racked up at least 35 points while shooting at least 50% from the field in seven straight games. The previous record was held by Chamberlain, but he’d accomplished that feat in just six straight.
DeRozan’s combination of scoring efficiency and volume is incredible. He ranks third in the league at 28.1 points per game, and he’s shooting 51.7% from the field. DeRozan hasn’t embraced the three-point shot like some of his counterparts, but he makes up for it with his dominance from the midrange.
He’s taken a shot that is considered the worst in basketball – the long midrange jumper – and turned it into an art form. He averages a league-high 9.4 midrange attempts per game, and he’s converting 50.2% of them. Despite his volume, only six players averaging at least three midrange shots per game have converted at a higher rate.
With teams routinely shooting more and more three-pointers every season, it’s nice to know that there’s still a place for a player like DeRozan. If he can get a bit of help from his teammates, that place might be the NBA Finals.
8. Who’s Next?
Last week, I wrote about the importance of the C.J. McCollum trade for the Pelicans. It wasn’t necessarily because the Pelicans need to make a push for the playoffs this season, but rather to try and improve relations with Zion Williamson. Giving Zion a core of McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas is certainly not a bad start.
Unfortunately, it may not matter. There have been no official rumblings of a trade demand from Williamson’s camp, but it seems like it’s just a matter of time.
McCollum made news by saying that he’s yet to receive any word from Williamson after arriving in New Orleans:
CJ McCollum — the president of the NBA Players Association — says he hasn’t spoken directly to teammate Zion Williamson.
McCollum tells TNT broadcast crew, “I know about as much as you do right now. But I’m going to get to the bottom of it.” pic.twitter.com/KXfBBn5tym
— Christian Clark (@cclark_13) February 20, 2022
That has reportedly since been rectified, but Williamson still caught plenty of heat from J.J. Redick on First Take:
JJ Redick calls out Zion for being a ‘detached’ teammate 😳 pic.twitter.com/igd7QZVYRp
— NBACentral (@TheNBACentral) February 22, 2022
Add in the fact that Williamson was noticeably absent from an email for Pelicans’ season tickets next season, and the writing is pretty clearly on the wall.
If Williamson does look to demand a trade, he would be easily the youngest superstar to flex his muscles during the age of player empowerment. He’s played in just 85 career games – 85! – and yet he could already be looking for the escape hatch.
That said, Williamson is not alone. Sports Illustrated’s Howard Beck reports that team executives are speculating that Williamson, Lillard, and Donovan Mitchell could be the next superstars to force their way out of town.
If any or all of those players are looking for a new home, there will be a feeding frenzy among general managers to try and add them to their rosters. In the new NBA, the next best thing to having a superstar is having cap space. You never know when the next big name is going to be on the move.
9. GINOBILI!!!
If you didn’t read that headline in your best Charles Barkley impersonation, this column may not be for you.
Manu Ginobili did not make the cut for the 75 at 75 team, making him another notable omission. However, he will headline the 2022 finalists for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
On the surface, Ginobili might be an interesting choice for the Hall of Fame. He averaged just 13.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, and he spent the majority of his career coming off the bench. I can already hear future generations asking about how this dude got a spot alongside some of the game’s greats.
However, Ginobili is a classic case of the numbers not telling the whole story. He was obviously talented enough to start for every team in the league, but Gregg Popovich preferred using him as a weapon off the bench. That didn’t stop him from closing games, especially during the postseason.
Additionally, Ginobili will go down as one of the game’s great winners. He took home four championship rings with the Spurs, which is no small accomplishment. Among modern NBA players, only 12 players have more.
Additionally, Ginobili led Argentina to a gold medal in the 2004 Olympics. The list of teams to win the gold medal since the 1992 Dream Team? The United States and Argentina. That’s it.
The rest of that Argentina squad was formidable, but Ginobili was their clear best player. The fact that he was able to lead that group over a squad featuring LeBron, Tim Duncan, Iverson, Dwane Wade, and Melo is nothing short of remarkable.
The Basketball Hall of Fame recognizes all contributions made to the game of basketball – not just those that happen in the NBA – so Ginobili stands out as a clear Hall of Famer in my book. Basketball-Reference puts his Hall of Fame probability at just 20.05%, but he’ll be in Springfield sooner rather than later.
10. The King Comes Home
Let’s end this article the same way that the All-Star game did, a LeBron James turnaround:
Game on the line. @KingJames finished it. pic.twitter.com/5GXwK7dHnx
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) February 21, 2022
With this game being played in Cleveland, it was fitting that LeBron got to put the nail in the coffin. There was lots of talk this weekend about how LeBron will finish his career, but don’t forget that this guy is still dominating in his 19th NBA season. He has an uphill battle with the Lakers over the rest of the year but underestimate this man at your own risk. The King stays King.
