The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Thursday, July 7
Tony Gonsolin: Los Angeles Dodgers
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 1.54 ERA indicates
Gonsolin has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the MLB this season. He boasts a 10-0 record with a 1.54 ERA through 15 starts. He also owns a 3.77 xFIP through 81.2 innings, suggesting he’s due for regression.
The interesting part about Gonsolin is that he’s consistently beat regression throughout his MLB career. His ERA sat 1.97 below his xFIP in 2019, 1.49 in 2020, and 1.4 in 2021. He could be one of very few pitchers in the MLB that can consistently beat his advanced stats.
Luckily, Gonsolin gets a plus home matchup on Thursday. The Chicago Cubs have been playing well recently, but they aren’t an offense to be overly concerned with.
Bottom Line: Gonsolin will see some regression at some point because his ERA is entirely too low, even if he can beat regression overall. I don’t expect it to be in a home matchup against Chicago, though.
Marco Gonzales: Seattle Mariners
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners | 10:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.29 ERA suggests
Gonzales is in a similar position to Gonsolin. He isn’t throwing as well, posting a 4-9 record with a 3.29 ERA through 16 starts. He owns a 4.92 xFIP through 87.2 innings, though.
With that being said, Gonzales has beaten regression in each of his last 3 seasons. That wasn’t his case throughout his entire career, though, so I’m suspecting the left-hander’s been luckier than good in recent seasons.
Gonzales gets a terrible matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They have several right-handed batters that dominate left-handed pitching. The only thing working in Gonzales’ favor is that he’s throwing at home in a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: Gonzales doesn’t seem to have the same ability to beat regression as Gonsolin. He’ll throw in a pitcher-friendly stadium, but I expect him to struggle against a high-upside Toronto offense.
Austin Gomber: Colorado Rockies
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 6.53 ERA suggests
Gomber has looked terrible through 15 games (13 starts) this season. He’s recorded a 4-7 record with a 6.53 ERA. He isn’t throwing nearly as bad as that suggests, though, as he also owns a 4.27 xFIP.
Oddly enough, Gomber’s found plenty of success in Colorado this season. He has similar home/road splits in 2022. Overall, Gomber’s posted a 6.42 road ERA, which sits well above his 4.30 road xFIP.
The left-hander gets a solid matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They’re a team that’s struggled to consistently produce offensively throughout the season.
Bottom Line: Gomber gets a plus matchup against Arizona tonight. He’s always a relatively risky option, but he could find some success in this game.
