The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, July 6
Joe Ryan: Minnesota Twins
Matchup: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox | 2:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.00 ERA indicates
Ryan has performed extremely well through 12 starts this season. He boasts a 6-3 record with a 3.00 ERA through 66 innings. His 4.58 xFIP suggests he isn’t throwing all that well, though, and he’s been getting lucky early on.
Oddly enough, Ryan’s advanced metrics look boom or bust depending on the game. He’s posted as good as a 1.61 xFIP against the Detroit Tigers and as high as an 8.35 xFIP against the Houston Astros this season.
Ryan gets a solid matchup against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday. Chicago is a right-handed heavy offense, and Ryan has been significantly better against righties. The White Sox also rank 29th in the MLB in OPS (.617) at home against right-handed pitching.
Bottom Line: Ryan is due for quite a bit of regression, but this is as good of a match as he can possibly get. He’s likely to avoid that regression today, but it will come soon enough. Most likely against a left-handed heavy lineup.
Jose Berrios: Toronto Blue Jays
Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A’s | 3:37 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.72 ERA suggests
Berrios has been one of the biggest surprises in the MLB this season. He’s struggled with a 6-4 record and a 5.72 ERA through 83.1 innings. He’ll get better as the season progresses, though, as his xFIP sits at only 4.40 this season.
Berrios has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB on the road this season. He owns a 7.92 road ERA through 44.1 innings. His xFIP sits at 4.73 outside of Toronto, though. Granted, this isn’t a good road xFIP, but it’s drastically lower than his current ERA.
Toronto’s right-hander will draw a start in Oakland’s pitcher-friendly stadium today. The A’s have been struggling in recent weeks. They also rank last in the MLB in OPS (.569) at home against right-handed pitching. There’s little reason to believe that gets better today.
Bottom Line: Berrios isn’t an elite pitcher on the road by any stretch, but this is an outstanding matchup. The A’s feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB, and Berrios should find plenty of success in this start.
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.59 ERA suggests
Cobb has struggled throughout the 2022 season. He’s posted a 3-3 record with a 4.59 ERA through 11 starts. He’s seen somewhat limited innings because of an injury, but he also boasts a ridiculous 2.74 xFIP.
While he has never been viewed as an elite pitcher, Cobb boasts the top xFIP on the chart today. That’s better than Corbin Burnes, Aaron Nola, Max Fried, and everyone else.
The right-hander gets a good matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday. The D-Backs have been an average offense in recent games. They rank 24th in the MLB in OPS (.659) at home against right-handed pitchers.
Bottom Line: Cobb has been on a short leash in recent starts, but his advanced metrics are elite. He should find plenty of success, similar to teammate Alex Wood last night.
