The Buccaneers and Saints played an ugly 20-10 game in Week 2. The lowly NFC South remains in the balance, and neither team is playing high-level football. So, will this be another ugly game? We’ll look at both teams before providing our favorite Buccaneers vs. Saints predictions.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | +3 (-110) | +152 | O 41.5 (-110) |
| @ Bucs | -3 (-110) | -180 | U 41.5 (-110) |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 5. New to FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to grab a risk-free bet up to $1,000!
Game Info
- Date: Monday, Nov. 21
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- TV: ESPN
Buccaneers vs. Saints Trends
- The game’s total opened at 39.5 points on Sunday (11/27) and has gradually climbed to 41.5 points throughout the week.
- The under is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last four games versus a team with a losing record.
- The under is 6-1 in the Buccaneers’ last seven games.
- The under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last seven games versus the NFC South.
- The under is 10-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 12 games following a straight-up loss.
- The under is 4-1 in the Saints’ last five games.
- The under is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five games versus the NFC.
- The under is 11-3 in the Saints’ last 14 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game.
The Buccaneers are Stingy on Defense
Tampa Bay has been a disappointment this year. Yet, the Bucs have been stout on defense. According to Football Outsiders, they’re eighth in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), ninth in rush defense DVOA, and ninth in pass defense DVOA. Their recent marks are also stellar. Since Week 9, Tampa Bay has been eighth in total defense DVOA, sixth in rush defense DVOA, and ninth in pass defense DVOA.
Fortunately, traditional metrics are also excellent for the Bucs. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs are eighth in yards allowed per play (5.0), eighth in pressure rate (23.6%), and fifth in scoring defense (18.5 points per game). The Bucs have allowed 20 points or fewer in seven of 11 games, and one of the contests when their opponent scored more than 20 was last week’s overtime loss to the Browns, and Cleveland had just 17 points in regulation. Moreover, the Bucs held the Saints to 10 points in Week 2 and allowed only nine points to them in their meeting in Week 15 in 2021.
The Saints Are Mediocre at Best
The Saints aren’t a contender for the worst team in the NFL. Yet, they’re nowhere near a legitimate contender. Thus, they’re in the land of mediocrity. New Orleans is 23rd in total offense DVOA and 15th in total defense DVOA. Unfortunately, they’ve been worse lately. Since Week 9, they’re 27th in total offense DVOA and 20th in total defense DVOA.
The traditional measures are primarily in agreement. The Saints are tied for 19th in scoring offense (20.8 points per game). The defensive numbers are somewhat conflicting. New Orleans is tied for 20th in scoring defense (23.3 points per game). However, they’re ninth in yards allowed per play (5.2).
The Saints might get a significant piece back in their secondary tonight.
It’s unclear if Saints CB Marshon Lattimore will make his return to the field tonight in Tampa. But if he does, his long-running feud with Bucs WR Mike Evans was made for prime time. https://t.co/u0hm0L6NtT
— Katherine Terrell (@Kat_Terrell) December 5, 2022
Marshon Lattimore has traditionally given Mike Evans fits. If the physical corner is back tonight, Tampa Bay’s path to points will be more challenging.
Buccaneers vs. Saints Predictions
Tampa Bay’s offense is lousy. The Bucs are 17th in total offense DVOA, 25th in yards per play (5.1), and 27th in scoring offense (18.2). Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in seven straight games and 10 of 11 contests. Yikes.
Tampa Bay’s offensive ineptitude and defensive aptitude have resulted in game totals of 22, 30, 26, 72, 36, 38, 24, 49, 29, 37, and 40. Thus, their game totals have been under 41.5 points in nine of 11 games. The average game total in Tampa Bay’s games this year has been 36.6 points, and the median outcome was 36 points.
Conversely, the Saints have had a few shootouts this year. Yet, their game totals have been tiny lately. Since Week 8, New Orleans’ game totals have been 24, 40, 30, 47, and 13. So, they’ve been under 41.5 points in four of their last five games, with an average total of 30.8 points and a median of 30 points. As a result, I’m enamored with the game’s under of 41.5 points.
Pick: Under 41.5 Points | -118 at FanDuel Sportsbook