Best TNF Player Props - NFL Top Plays (Updated Weekly)

Looking for all the best Thursday Night Football player props? You have come to the right place. Every week, we ask our analysts to sift through all the best daily fantasy sports sites to find you their best TNF player props for every week of the NFL season.

Make sure to check back weekly as this page will be updated a few days prior to each week’s matchup so you can get your bets in early to grab the most value.

So let’s dive into our two best plays for this week’s highly anticipated matchup between the Bills and Dolphins.

Best TNF Player Props: Week 3

Check back on Wednesday at 12 p.m. EST for an updated slate of TNF props.

Week 2 TNF Props

Tua Tagovailoa “Higher” Than 33.5 Passing Attempts

Tua Tagovailoa was busy in a come-from-behind victory against the Jaguars in Week 1. He chucked the pigskin 37 times in Week 1. Yet, the hefty pass total wasn’t entirely because they were trailing. Instead, according to RotoViz’s pace app, Miami’s 56% situation-neutral pass rate on 48 plays was tied for the 12th-highest mark, and their 71 plays per 60 minutes in a situation-neutral game script were the seventh most. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%) on 58 plays against the Bills in Week 1.

Additionally, the Dolphins struggled to create yards before contact for their running backs. Per the FantasyPoints data suite, the Dolphins produced the seventh-fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.96 YBCO/ATT). Miami was also tied for the seventh-highest stuffed rate (48.0%). Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane haven’t practiced through Tuesday. Rest on short weeks should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, they came out of Week 1 banged up, potentially sliding more responsibilities onto Tagovailoa’s plate.

Tua’s passing volume in one-score games since last season is also encouraging for this selection. The Dolphins had eight one-score games since last season. He had 37, 27, 37, 33, 39, 34, 30, and 45 pass attempts in those games. Tua’s average pass attempts in one-score games since last year were 35.25, and his median was 35.5. He exceeded 33.5 pass attempts five times. The game’s spread is slight, so I expect Tagovailoa to sling it early and often in a back-and-forth game against their division rival.

Where to play: Tua Tagovailoa Higher Than 33.5 Passing Attempts | Underdog

Khalil Shakir “More” Than 38.5 Receiving Yards (1.70x)

The Bills aren’t the pass-first and ask-questions-later offense they were when Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey were Buffalo’s offensive coordinators. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Bills have had a 50% situation-neutral pass rate in 10 games with Joe Brady as the team’s offensive coordinator. The Bills’ new ground-and-pound philosophy isn’t ideal for the receiving yardage outlook of Buffalo’s pass-catchers.

Nevertheless, Khalil Shakir’s receiving line is low, and he’s thrived in Brady’s offense. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in 10 games with Brady as the offensive coordinator, Shakir has had 38 targets, 33 receptions (3.3 per game), 480 receiving yards (48.0 per game), 1.73 yards per route run (Y/RR). In addition to averaging 48.0 receiving yards per game in that 10-game sample, he had a median of 44.5, exceeding 38.5 receiving yards seven times.

Shakir’s matchup is also mouthwatering. According to PFF, Jacksonville’s receivers had six targets, three receptions, and 64 receiving yards from the slot in Week 1. Shakir was in the slot 18 of his 22 snaps on passing downs for the Bills in Week 1. Revisiting Miami, they’ve struggled against the slot dating back to last year. According to PFF, Kansas City’s wideouts had eight targets, five receptions, and 83 receiving yards from the slot in the Wild Card Round, Buffalo’s wideouts had nine, nine, and 131 in Week 18, Baltimore’s wide receivers had six, six, 157 in Week 17, and Dallas’s wideouts had nine, six, and 104 in Week 16. Shakir specifically caught all five of his targets from the slot against the Dolphins in Week 18, trouncing them for 101 receiving yards at a 9.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT).

Circling back to Miami’s slot numbers, they’ve been heavily targeted there. Per the FantasyPoints data suite, Miami faced the highest slot target rate (52.6%) in Week 1. Last season, they also had the 13th-highest slot target rate (33.2%). Shakir should surpass 38.5 receiving yards against the Dolphins.

Where to play: Khalil Shakir More Than 38.5 Receiving Yards | 1.70x at Sleeper Fantasy

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Where To Place NFL Prop Bets

The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your NFL player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL player props.

You can’t go wrong with DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in your state:

NFL Fantasy Player Props

We love the NFL player props available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper Fantasy. These fantasy player props aren’t technically sports betting picks, but they offer a very similar experience to prop-betting parlays.

You’ll often find the juiciest lines and payouts odds for NFL props available at legal DFS sites. These apps are available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.

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Top Online Sportsbook And Daily Fantasy Promos By State

PrizePicks and other DFS apps offer fantasy prop contests that are very similar to prop betting. Check out our Apps Like PrizePicks guide, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).

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