Looking for all the best Thursday Night Football props? You have come to the right place. Every week, we ask our analysts to sift through all the best daily fantasy sports sites to find you their best TNF player props for every week of the NFL season.
Make sure to check back weekly as this page will be updated a few days prior to each week’s matchup so you can get your bets in early to grab the most value.
So let’s dive into our two best plays for this Week 11 matchup.
Thursday Night Football Props: Week 11 NFL Picks
Josh Shepardson breaks down his top TNF picks for this week.
MORE PROPS: NFL | NBA | NHL | PGA | CFB
Saquon Barkley Higher Than 93.5 Rushing Yards
Saquon Barkley’s 66 rushing yards against Dallas’s pathetic run defense in Week 10 were his second-lowest mark of the season. He’s coming off a down performance, but the Eagles beat the brakes off the Cowboys and didn’t need to overexert their stud running back.
According to Pro Football Reference, Barkley has averaged 110.1 rushing yards per game, with a median of 108. He’s exceeded 93.5 rushing yards six times in nine contests. Barkley’s been a genuine workhorse for the Eagles.
This year, Barkley has handled 171 of Philadelphia’s backfield’s 228 rush attempts (75.0%). He should be busy this week. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Eagles have had the highest situation-neutral rush rate (57%) since Week 7. Conversely, the Commanders have faced the highest situation-neutral rush rate (58%) since Week 7. So, Philadelphia’s offensive tendencies, coupled with Washington’s opponents’ offensive tendencies, are a match made in heaven for Barkley’s rushing outlook on Thursday night.
Barkley’s matchup is soft, too. According to Pro Football Reference, the Commanders have yielded the sixth-most rushing yards per game (116.8) to running backs despite having a 7-3 record. The Eagles are home favorites this week, setting the stage for a positive game script and ample rushing opportunities for Barkley. Thus, Barkley should exceed 93.5 rushing yards in a critical NFC East matchup.
Where to play: Saquon Barkley Higher Than 93.5 Rushing Yards | Underdog
Zach Ertz Lower Than 33.5 Receiving Yards
Zach Ertz has been a crucial piece of Washington’s passing attack. According to Pro Football Reference, the veteran tight end has averaged 3.7 receptions and 38.1 receiving yards per game. Ertz has surpassed 33.5 receiving yards in five of 10 games this year.
However, that also means he’s fallen short of 33.5 receiving yards five times. One of the times Ertz exceeded 33.5 receiving yards was when Marcus Mariota relieved Jayden Daniels for most of the Week 7 blowout victory against the Panthers. So, Ertz had fewer than 33.5 receiving yards in five of nine games Daniels played most of Washington’s snaps.
Ertz is in a small rut. He’s had five and 31 receiving yards in the previous two weeks. His underlying data has been unimpressive lately, too. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, in three games since Daniels returned from his injury-abbreviated start, Ertz has had a 70.4% route participation rate, 18.0% air-yard share, 19.1% target share, 0.24 targets per route run, 16.9% first-read percentage, 12 receptions (4.0 per game), 113 receiving yards (37.7 per game), and 1.49 yards per route run.
Ertz was bottled up in a challenging matchup against Big Blue’s defense, securing one five-yard reception on his only target. Ertz has another brutal matchup this week. The Eagles have held tight ends to the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game (36.9) this season. As a result, I expect Ertz to find the sledding tough and fall short of 33.5 receiving yards in Week 11.
Where to play: Zach Ertz Lower Than 33.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog
Where To Place Thursday Night Football NFL Prop Bets
The sportsbooks and daily fantasy sites featured in this article offer more than enough options to satisfy your NFL player props needs. As outlined before, always shop around for the best price when it comes to NFL player props.
NFL Fantasy Player Props
We love the NFL player props available at top-flight daily fantasy sites like Underdog, PrizePicks, Betr Picks, Vivid Picks and Sleeper. These fantasy player props aren’t technically sports betting picks, but they offer a very similar experience to prop-betting parlays.
You’ll often find the juiciest lines and payout odds for NFL props available at legal DFS sites. These apps are available in many states that don’t yet have legal online sports betting.
NFL Betting Sites
You can’t go wrong with DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook when it comes to any kind of sports bet. Take a look at the following guides to see if DraftKings and FanDuel are legal in your state:
More Sports Betting Resources
Check out the Props.com NFL Betting Guide and Guide To Prop Betting for more on how to bet NFL props.
For more on the available sports betting bonuses in your state, take a look at some of these Props.com resources:
Top Online Sportsbook And Daily Fantasy Promos By State
- Arizona
- California
- Colorado
- Florida
- Georgia
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- New Jersey
- New York
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Pennsylvania
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Virginia
PrizePicks and other DFS apps offer fantasy prop contests that are very similar to prop betting. Check out our Apps Like PrizePicks guide, which outlines some of the best sports gaming options available in most U.S. states (even the ones that haven’t legalized sports betting).
Wondering if the PrizePicks daily fantasy app is legal in California? Check out the Is PrizePicks Legal in California? Guide.