The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Wednesday, July 13
Joe Ryan: Minnesota Twins
Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins | 1:10 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 3.09 ERA indicates
Ryan’s thrown well in 2022, posting a 6-3 record with a 3.09 ERA through 13 starts. He’s gotten a bit lucky, though, as he also owns a 4.70 xFIP through 70 innings.
Ryan’s struggled quite a bit in recent games, although he’s been somewhat of a boom or bust pitcher. He’s recorded 6.84, 7.49, and 5.34 xFIPs in 3 of his last 5 starts. His other xFIPs over that span sat at 3.88 and 3.26. It’s only a matter of time before he gets rocked early in a game once again.
The young right-hander will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers today. They’ve been playing extremely well in recent games, ranking fourth in the MLB in team wOBA (.339) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Ryan has a unique way of pitching, which could allow him to avoid regression. We haven’t seen anything to suggest that will be the case, though. He gets a tough matchup tonight, and he could start to see some regression, similar to Josh Winder last night.
Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.05 ERA suggests
Giolito’s struggled quite a bit through 15 starts this season. He enters this game with a 5-5 record and a 5.05 ERA. He’s due for quite a bit of positive regression, though, as he owns a 3.62 xFIP as well.
Giolito’s seen mixed results, as he’s posted an xFIP over 5.00 in 3 of his 15 starts this season. He also struggled with his ERA in those games, though. He’s recorded xFIPs of 3.76 or better in each of his last 3 starts, but the right-hander gave up 8 earned runs over 18.2 innings in those games.
Giolito gets an interesting matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight. They’re a team that is going to put the ball in play, creating variance, but they’ve also been an average offense. They rank 16th in the MLB in team wOBA (.310) over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Giolito is throwing at one of the highest levels of his career, but his baseline metrics don’t show that. He’s going to string together several elite outings, and it could start in a solid matchup tonight.
Luis Severino: New York Yankees
Matchup: Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 27.9% strikeout rate suggests
Severino’s performed well in 2022. He boasts a 10.1 K/9 to go along with 27.9% strikeout, 12.8% swinging-strike, and 28.4% CSW rates through 15 starts.
Severino’s numbers look correct compared to other players on the slate tonight. Aaron Ashby, Zack Wheeler, and Lucas Giolito all have similar rates to Severino. The key here is Severino’s past seasons. His swinging-strike and CSW rates are very similar to what he’s posted in the past, yet his strikeout rate is down nearly 10% from last season.
Severino gets an elite matchup against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. They’re an offense that has been struggling with strikeouts, and they also struggle against the right-handers’ pitch mix.
Bottom Line: Severino is due for positive strikeout regression, and this is an elite matchup for him to get it. He has double-digit strikeout potential against Cincinnati tonight.
