The Diamondbacks held on for a 4-3 victory in last night’s NL West matchup. However, for Tuesday, there’s a massive discrepancy in pitching talent between probable starters Dallas Keuchel and Logan Webb.
The difference in talent level is reflected in the betting odds. So should bettors hope for an upset and bet on the underdog tonight? Is laying the massive juice on the moneyline the right move? Below, check out an analysis of the betting info for the Giants vs Diamondbacks and find out our top betting pick.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| D-Backs (Keuchel) | +1.5 (-115) | +185 | O 8 (-105) |
| @ Giants (Webb) | -1.5 (-105) | -225 | U 8 (-115) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 9 am ET on July 12.
Keuchel Isn’t Big-League Caliber
Keuchel vs Giants: How long before Keuchel is designated for assignment again? He’s already been cut loose by the White Sox, and the lefty is no longer a big-league caliber pitcher. According to FanGraphs, Keuchel has the highest ERA (7.63) among starters with at least 40 innings this year.
Keuchel has coughed up at least four runs in five of 11 games, including yielding at least six runs four times. Moreover, in his last five starts, Keuchel has allowed 26 runs in 22.1 innings. Finally, he’s been hammered by lefties and righties. Since last year, lefties have teed off for a .368 wOBA, and righties have had a .363 wOBA.
Giants offense: The Giants have effectively used platoons to their advantage. As a result, they’ve had a 107 wRC+ against southpaws, equal to the mark tallied by the high-octane Blue Jays.
Fortunately, it will be a good matchup when the Giants face Arizona’s bullpen. They have had the eighth-highest ERA (4.32). Further, they won’t get much relief turning to righties, as the Giants have a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Sadly, over the last 30 days, San Francisco has had a 98 wRC+. Nonetheless, the Keuchel and Arizona’s bullpen should serve as an elixir for what ails San Francisco’s offense.
Webb Is Too Much For D-Backs
Webb vs Diamondbacks: Webb broke out last year, proving it wasn’t a fluke. The groundballer has had a 2.98 ERA, 3.41 xERA, and 3.35 xFIP in 17 starts totaling 105.2 innings. Webb has also been remarkably consistent.
The righty has allowed three runs or less in 14 of 17 starts. In the outliers, Webb has allowed four runs twice and five runs (three earned) once. Thus, he keeps the Giants whenever he toes the slab. He should excel in a good matchup.
Diamondbacks offense: The Diamondbacks are a lowly 23rd in wRC+ (91) against right-handed pitchers. Further, they haven’t shown signs of waking up, either.
Over the last 30 days, they’d tied for 22nd in wRC+ (92). Additionally, their .152 ISO during that stretch isn’t making Webb shake in his cleats. As a result, they’re an unlikely option to provide Webb a challenge.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction
The disparity between starting pitchers is gargantuan. The Giants also hold a decided offensive edge, even accounting for their recent struggles. Nonetheless, eating the chalk with a -220 moneyline bet is too rich for my blood.
Alternatively, gamers could parlay the Giants’ moneyline and Wilmer Flores recording a hit for -116. Since 2019, Flores has had a .285 batting average against southpaws. In addition, Flores has a great lineup spot, hitting second. He isn’t at as great of a risk to be lifted for a pinch-hitter as some other righties in the lineup. Flores also isn’t a complete lost cause against righties, sporting a .253 batting average against them since last year.
Having said all of that, I’d prefer to lay the 1.5 runs. Keuchel and Arizona’s bullpen are horrendous, and Webb is a legitimate ace. So the Giants should comfortably win.
The Pick: Giants -1.5 Runline (-105) | Caesars Sportsbook
