The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers. In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, July 11
Alex Cobb: San Francisco Giants
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants | 9:45 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 4.74 ERA indicates
Cobb is due for positive regression. He has posted a 3-3 record with a 4.74 ERA through 12 starts this season. He also owns an elite 2.79 xFIP through 57 innings.
Cobb threw better earlier in the season, but his advanced metrics still suggest positive regression in recent games. He’s posted an xFIP under 3.50 in each of his last 3 starts, and those have been on the high end for his season totals.
The right-hander allowed 4 earned runs over 6 innings in his last start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Although his ERA sat at 6.00 in that game, he posted a 3.35 xFIP. He’s seen some form of positive regression in 3 of his last 4 starts, though.
Bottom Line: Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the MLB this season. He’ll face off against Arizona again tonight, but he’s throwing in San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly stadium. Cobb should get back on track in this game.
Lance Lynn: Chicago White Sox
Matchup: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.33 ERA suggests
Lynn has thrown in limited games this season, but he’s been quite unlucky. Through 5 starts, he owns a 1-1 record with a 5.33 ERA. He also boasts a solid 3.84 xFIP. He’s given up a .313 BABIP, which is significantly higher than in recent years.
Lynn has struggled in each of his last two starts, posting 4.50 and 4.68 xFIPs in those games. He’s recorded an ERA higher than his xFIP in 4 of his 5 starts overall, though.
Lynn gets a solid matchup against the Cleveland Guardians tonight. They’ve struggled to produce offensively in recent games. The only major concern is that they consistently put the ball in play, allowing for variance to continue to be a concern here.
Bottom Line: Lynn’s advanced metrics suggest he’s throwing at a solid level for the second consecutive season. The matchup is both good and bad, and I’m expecting him to start to find success more often than not in his next few starts.
Miles Mikolas: St. Louis Cardinals
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals | 7:15 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 2.72 ERA suggests
Mikolas has looked outstanding this season, posting a 5-7 record with a 2.72 ERA through 17 starts. He’s due for some regression, though, as his xFIP sits at 3.87 and he owns a .239 BABIP.
It’s important to note that Mikolas isn’t a bad pitcher. He’s certainly solid, but he isn’t an elite arm. His ERA currently sits in the range of Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, and Max Fried on this slate. Yet his xFIP is nearly a full run higher than any of these pitchers.
Mikolas has always been a better pitcher in St. Louis, but he gets a difficult matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Even without Bryce Harper, they’ve found success in recent games, and it will be interesting to see which side wins out tonight.
Bottom Line: Mikolas is a good pitcher, but he isn’t an elite arm. I’m not expecting him to get blown up in this matchup, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly finds some success against him in this game.
